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On the Same Theme

Origin of Symmetry 3/17/2017
The Fed did it again: a dovish rate hike. The unsurprising rate increase came with unchanged projections, the reminding that neutral rates were a few hikes away. Last but not least, the inflation target is now said to be symmetric.
They did it again! 3/17/2017
Another dovish rate increase from the Fed. And a fully assumed symmetric inflation target.
Sometimes there is no room for doubt 3/10/2017
On Tuesday, the FOMC meeting will be as unsurprising as can be. Last week, Janet Yellen gave a green light to a rate increase. The only condition attached was lifted by the February labour market report.
United States: Upcoming FOMC meeting, a non-event 3/8/2017
The subtle art of guidance is turning the upcoming FOMC meeting (14 and 15 March) into a non-event: the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike as priced in by the markets has shot up recently on the back of data releases but even more so in reaction to comments of Fed officials including Janet Yellen hinting at an early move. We are now reaching the same probability as in the run-up to the December 2016 tightening. Updated central bank guidance allows markets to adjust and anticipate, taking the sting (the surprise element) out of the move when it happens. It also means that strong labour market data will have less of a market impact because investors are already convinced about a hike anyhow. Disappointing job creations would be another story of course and could create some last minute doubts about a March rate move by the FOMC.
No news, fake news 3/3/2017
Donald Trump has repeated his campaign promises, but with no more detail. The prospect of a fiscal stimulus looks further off.
The Fed knows it knows nothing 2/24/2017
FOMC members underscore the uncertainty looming over fiscal policy. When in doubt, abstain?
Reflation? 2/17/2017
Data released this week highlight a rebound in activity and inflation. Ii is however too soon to read this as the first signs of the reflation some are expecting…
Markets and the economy: the pendulum of 2017? 2/7/2017
After the euphoria, back to reality? Such a change is a distinct possibility either because growth disappoints or because interest rates rise more than expected. In addition, the risk of external shocks like rising protectionism is a matter of concern.
United States: Uncertainty prevails 2/3/2017
The FOMC left its policy unchanged and only slightly rewording its statement. Sure enough, as details still lack on the fiscal front, the forecast exercise gets trickier…
Wait and see 2/3/2017
The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode. Even though more confident about inflation reaching target, the lack of details about the fiscal policy makes it hard to forecast the economy…

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