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USD and commodity prices: behind the correlation 1/13/2017
Between 2003 and mid-2016, the negative correlation between commodity prices and the USD was the rule. Since mid-2016, the US dollar and prices of oil and metals have moved together in the same direction. Is this a trend break or a temporary de-correlation?
Global: Synchronised surprises 1/11/2017
Recent economic data have been robust and have surprised to the upside: the numbers have been better than expected in the US, the Eurozone and in emerging markets (a universe which covers 20 countries). These synchronized surprises (all three indicators being in positive territory) do not occur that often. The recent experience may reflect that by coincidence things have improved simultaneously albeit for country specific reasons or it may show the impact of a common factor, like the prospect of fiscal stimulus in the US. The next several months will tell. Another striking element is the recent strong increase in the Eurozone surprise index which has now reached a level which makes it increasingly difficult to continue to surprise to the upside.
A weak euro for long 1/6/2017
The euro is very low again vs. the dollar. A situation that is likely to persist.
2017: A critical year for the climate negotiations 1/6/2017
In November 2016, the Paris agreement on climate change came into force and the countries even decided to accelerate the agenda for its implementation. However, the Trump presidency casts a shadow on further progress.
Economic uncertainty: important but complex 1/6/2017
More and more, economists pay attention to uncertainty in view of its impact on growth, inflation and financial markets. This has led to the development of increasingly sophisticated uncertainty indicators. The experience of 2016 shows that financial markets are very sensitive to swings in uncertainty whereas the real economy reacts more slowly.
The charts of 2016 12/23/2016
2016 has been a surprising year in many respects. Brexit, the victory of Donald Trump, the shift in policy emphasis from monetary to fiscal, the OPEC agreement, the better reading of economic data in the latter part of the year, etc. In addition, equity, bond, currency and commodity markets have seen considerable swings reflecting changes in economic fundamentals as well as in investor risk appetite. This special year-end issue of EcoFlash provides a selection of charts we consider to be important when looking back at 2016 but also, in many cases, when looking ahead at 2017.
Smooth operations 12/16/2016
The Fed raises rates, with caution. The Bank of England goes for the status quo, with caution. Next moves will be taken… with caution.
Towards a new economic policy mix 12/12/2016
With monetary policy having reached its limits and a prospect of, in historical comparison, slow potential GDP growth, a consensus is building of the need to use fiscal stimulus and structural reform. What can realistically be expected?
From shades of grey to black/white: economic scenario analysis in the new era 12/2/2016
Until recently, the difference between a base and an alternative scenario tended to be small. In 2017, Brexit negotiations, fiscal expansion in the US and elections related uncertainty in Europe mean that the difference between a base scenario and different alternatives will become bigger implying more market volatility and economic uncertainty.
Oil back on front pages 12/2/2016
The production cut announced by OPEC countries for the first half of 2017 led oil prices to markedly rebound. This is bad news for consumer spending, as energy demand is quite inelastic to prices.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
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