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Eurozone: Credit environment 10/6/2017
Bank lending environment remains favorable. The impulse stabilizes for households while demand for house purchase loans moderates somewhat and that for consumer loans slightly increases. The impulse improves marginally for non-financial corporations, which is consistent with a growing demand in a context where standards remain neutral (neither restrictive nor accommodative).
A genuine recovery 9/15/2017
Recent economic indicators published in the Eurozone confirm the solidity of the recovery.
Eurozone: robust growth boosts the euro 9/8/2017
Indicators released during the summer months continue to point towards sustained, robust growth. The ensuing euro strength is raising questions about the impact on export growth and inflation and increases the importance of the messages coming from the ECB on the occasion of its upcoming meetings.
ECB: October it should be 9/8/2017
The bulk of decision on QE re-scaling should be announced in October: This is the key message delivered yesterday by Mario Draghi. Preliminary discussions already took place at the Governing Council and several scenarios are under study.
Financial markets as self-appointed subcontractors 9/8/2017
Financial markets are very much influenced by expectations about monetary policy. The recent euro strength reflects anticipations of a scaling back of the ECB’s asset purchase programme. Market anticipations complicate the ECB’s task.
The strong euro: stocks, flows and the ECB 9/7/2017
EURUSD has rallied significantly since last April although the 2 year interest rate differential hardly changed. Euro strength probably reflects a portfolio rebalancing on the back of an expected change in the ECB’s QE program and a more optimistic view on the evolution of the growth outlook for the Eurozone relative to the US. Market focus on ECB forward guidance on interest rates will increase when QE is scaled back.
Credit environment 9/1/2017
Despite a recent increase, related to the strengthening of the euro, the financial and monetary conditions index remains in easy territory.
Five years after: Believe me it will be enough 7/21/2017
Turning Mario Draghi’s 2012 “Believe me it will be enough” speech into action has consisted of a two-step process with Outright Monetary Transactions being followed by QE. Given where we are in the business cycle and paraphrasing the London speech, markets would now love to hear "on normalisation, believe me it will be slow enough”… Whether that speech will be given remains to be seen.
From “Believe me it will be enough” to “Believe me it will be slow enough”? 7/21/2017
Mario Draghi’s speech on 26 July 2012 was instrumental in calming down markets. The dominating concern today is how to bring monetary policy normalisation without creating market disruption.
Blinded by the light? Convergence and differences in the euro area 7/13/2017
Economic growth in the euro area is robust. This dynamism is shared amongst its members yet important structural differences remain. The favourable cyclical environment calls for an economic policy to address these so as to boost long term growth and the resilience of individual countries in case of downturns.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
The website contains 1624 articles and 418 videos