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Reflation? 2/17/2017
Data released this week highlight a rebound in activity and inflation. Ii is however too soon to read this as the first signs of the reflation some are expecting…
United States: Uncertainty prevails 2/3/2017
The FOMC left its policy unchanged and only slightly rewording its statement. Sure enough, as details still lack on the fiscal front, the forecast exercise gets trickier…
Wait and see 2/3/2017
The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode. Even though more confident about inflation reaching target, the lack of details about the fiscal policy makes it hard to forecast the economy…
Do not follow the leader! 1/27/2017
At first sight, US growth slowed in end-2016. International trade was the main brake. In annual average terms, 2016 was particularly weak.
Accounts 1/24/2017
After hitting an air pocket that lasted three quarters, US growth seems to have picked up again since mid-2016, and the job market is sending out positive signals. The Fed is more confident in inflation prospects, which could return towards its medium-term target. These conditions should favour the ongoing normalisation of monetary policy. Fiscal prospects will determine the pace of the normalisation. In addition to the level of policy rates, a key question is the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. The broad outlines of an exit strategy have already been traced and confirmed on several occasions. The first instrument will be to allow debt to run off over time rather than rolling it over at maturity: this will not only be the first, but probably the main tool as well.
Ceasing purchases is the plan 1/20/2017
Two rate hikes and a supposedly expansionary fiscal policy raise the question of the downsizing of the Fed's balance sheet.
Wall Street: the era of low realised risk 1/4/2017
Wall Street started 2016 on a sour note but then saw a long upward trend with a strong acceleration after Donald Trump’s victory. This was reflected in the VIX index (which measures the implied volatility of options on the S&P500) which saw three phases of high nervousness around a declining trend: at the start of the year, on the occasion of the British referendum, before the US elections. Looking at the weeks* with negative US equity performance, only on 4 occasions did we see a weekly decline of 2% or more. This is quite an achievement, both historically but also given the lingering uncertainties. Whether the low realised risk era will last depends in particular on growth and monetary policy but also on fiscal policy implementation. The importance stretches well beyond Wall Street. *'week' is defined from Friday till Friday  
A vote of confidence 12/16/2016
The Fed raised rates by 25 bp, a no-surprise decision. FOMC members did not change their analysis of economic developments and question the opportunity for the economy to overheat.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush 12/16/2016
Promise made, promise kept: the Fed took a second step towards the normalisation of monetary policy with a 25pb rate hike. In a time of uncertainties, the Fed chose to reassure, not to surprise.
United States: Deficits!!! 12/12/2016
The campaign platform of President-elect Trump are for larger fiscal deficits, the magnitude of which remains uncertain as they will lack details until the Congress discuss actual pieces of legislation.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
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