The memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran certainly provides a degree of relief, but it remains shrouded in too much uncertainty to fundamentally change the situation—at least in the short term. The recent fall in oil prices is good news, but it needs to be maintained over the long term, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces numerous constraints. A return to normal will take time. This headwind to growth is diminishing, which reinforces our resilience scenario.
