The global manufacturing PMI was stable in December and has hardly moved since the spring of 2021. However, this masks significant differences between countries. Focusing on the most recent data, the US and the euro area saw a slight decline. Data for France and Germany were essentially stable whereas Italy and the Netherlands recorded a decline. Italy continues to have the highest score of euro area countries. The Czech Republic and Poland saw a further increase. China is doing better than last month whereas India saw a rather considerable decline. The services PMI declined slightly in the US but dropped in the euro area, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Spain. The index hardly changed in France. The UK also saw a big decline.
These developments reflect the impact of the Omicron wave. Japan and, even more so, India recorded considerable declines. The dynamics of the composite PMIs have been dominated by developments in the services sector, hence weaker data for the euro area, Germany, Ireland, Italy and Spain and an index that hardly changed in France. The UK was also confronted with a big decline.
Judging by the manufacturing employment PMI, the labour market outlook continues to be favourable in the advanced economies. Data for the US and the euro area improved and jumped in Germany. The Netherlands recorded quite a decline. The Czech Republic and Poland benefitted from a big increase. The index was stable in China but remains slightly below 50, which is a source of concern. New export orders were stable in the US and weaker in the euro area, which, amongst its members saw contrasting developments (better in France, significantly down in Germany and Spain). The index remains at a subdued level in the UK and China. Brazil, Mexico, the Czech Republic, Indonesia and Vietnam recorded big increases.
The input prices PMI remains at very elevated levels across the board but after declining in November, a new decline was recorded in the US, the euro area, France, Germany, Ireland. In several other countries, the December data also moved lower. In the services sector, input prices pressures eased in the euro area but moved higher in the US. The high levels show that a vast majority of companies continue to face rising prices. The global output prices PMI declined for the second month in a row with considerable declines in the US, the euro area and several euro area countries. The picture is very diverse in the emerging economies.
MANUFACTURING PMI
SERVICES PMI
COMPOSITE PMI*
MANUFACTURING PMI – EMPLOYMENT
MANUFACTURING PMI – NEW EXPORT ORDERS
PMI MANUFACTURING - INPUT PRICES
PMI SERVICES - INPUT PRICES
PMI MANUFACTURING - OUTPUT PRICES
