Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/French-corporates-peaks-creations-peaks-bankruptcies-into-perspective-7/22/2026,53676thomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comFranceDeveloped economiesBanking economicsEmployment and labour market Economic growthIn June 2026, corporate creations cumulated over one year remained dynamic, reaching a historic peak according to INSEE, with 1,233,123 corporates set up, representing a 11.1% year-on-year increase. This momentum is not a recent phenomenon, as corporate creations have doubled over the last decade. During this same period, the rise in bankruptcies has been ten times lower, which serves to put current levels (approximately 70,000 bankruptcies cumulated over one year in March 2026) into perspective. Historically, the peaks and troughs in corporate bankruptcies are following those of corporate creations, with an average lag of 24 to 36 months. Therefore, the absolute number of bankruptcies provides an incomplete reflection of the financial health of the French production base, and must be supplemented by other indicators.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/conflict-Middle-East-massive-blow-growth-Gulf-7/15/2026,53632stephane.alby@bnpparibas.comFiscal policyMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEnergyFor the first time since 2009 (excluding COVID), the GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to contract this year (-0.8%), whereas pre-conflict forecasts had predicted growth of 4.7%. Far from benefiting from the sharp rise in energy prices triggered by the conflict, the scale of the downturn reflects the severity of a shock that is undermining many of the pillars of the Gulf economies. Nevertheless, the consequences are varying from one country to another, depending on the level of diversification and, above all, on the degree of vulnerability to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/intra-EU-trade-finds-balance-7/9/2026,53618guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comEuropean unionDeveloped economiesThe share of intra-EU exports in total European exports currently stands at around 62%, a level comparable to that seen in the early 2000s. Behind this apparent stability, however, lies a deep reshuffling of the major blocs that make up the European Union. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Italy-productivity-challenges-AI-provide-solution-7/1/2026,53606paola.verduci@bnpparibas.comItalyFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthArtificial intelligenceIn the years following the pandemic, labour productivity in Italy has stalled. Artificial intelligence is identified as a potential catalyst for reversing this trend, with projections indicating possible annual productivity growth increases of up to 1.1 p.p. in a scenario of rapid adoption. However, the actual adoption of AI in Italy is still low, despite a faster growth rate compared with its main Euro area counterparts. As of 2025, only 16.4% of Italian companies with more than 10 employees were using AI. In the financial and insurance sectors, adoption rates are above average (39%, peaking at 70% in insurance). However, the application remains largely superficial, primarily focused on support activities such as fraud detection, process automation and customer relations, while its use in trading and post-trading activities remains largely experimental.Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Latin-America-Adding-Value-Critical-Minerals-Beyond-Mining-6/24/2026,53589helene.drouot@bnpparibas.comClimate changeInternational TradeConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe global race for artificial intelligence and the electrification of economies is leading to an increase in demand for metals. A recent study by S&P Global indicates that global electricity consumption is projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2040, fuelling a sustained rise in demand for copper, lithium, nickel, and other critical minerals. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for copper could rise by 30 to 40% by 2040, while demand for lithium could increase four- to sixfold, depending on the pace of adoption of low-carbon technologies.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/decade-referendum-UK-facing-consequences-Brexit-6/17/2026,53559marianne.mueller@bnpparibas.comUnited KingdomFinancial markets and investmentsFinancial regulationsInternational TradeEconomic growthArtificial intelligence23 June will mark the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, which led to the UK’s official exit from the European Union on 31 January 2020 (followed by a transition period). Since then, the country has indeed regained control over certain policy domains, such as trade, migration and regulatory frameworks. However, both the anticipation of Brexit and its actual implementation in 2021 have been linked to a decline in the country’s performance across several key indicators. Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting shared challenges, the UK is now seeking to re-establish practical collaboration with its main economic partner: the European Union.Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/US-regulatory-easing-offers-limited-support-Treasuries-market-6/10/2026,53537celine.choulet@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial markets and investmentsBanking economicsAs US regulators had hoped, the easing of the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) applied to global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) has improved intermediation conditions in the US Treasury market. However, this measure has not prompted banks to significantly increase their Treasury holdings.Wed, 10 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Latin-America-energy-crisis-expected-have-moderate-impact-public-finances-6/3/2026,53527lucas.ple@bnpparibas.comBrazilChileColombiaMexicoPeruFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyLatin America is not exposed to the risk of a disruption in hydrocarbon supplies due to the conflict in the Middle East. However, the rise in international energy prices is exerting pressure on the region’s public finances. In Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, fuel subsidies are increasing the risk of fiscal slippage; however, this risk is somewhat mitigated by the projected rise in oil-related fiscal revenues. In Chile and Peru, the lack of subsidies points to a significant inflationary impact that could result in a monetary tightening. This would increase the interest burden on public debt, but the moderate fiscal deficits in these countries should enable them to absorb the shock. Furthermore, governments in the region are expected to manage any tightening of international financial conditions with relative ease.Wed, 03 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Labour-productivity-growth-continue-5/27/2026,53509anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesMonetary policyEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationArtificial intelligenceThe outperformance of US growth is underpinned by productivity gains that are significantly higher than those of the previous decade. This acceleration is due more to the spillover effects of past investments and post-pandemic changes (such as remote working) than to artificial intelligence (AI). The roll-out of AI is too recent for productivity gains to have already made their mark at the macroeconomic level. In the medium term, however, AI is expected to support the upward trend.Wed, 27 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Blockade-Strait-Hormuz-market-soon-options-5/20/2026,53499pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe blockade of the Strait of Hormuz over the past two and a half months has significantly reduced the amount of oil available globally. The use of regional bypass, and the release of commercial stocks and strategic reserves are only partial and temporary solutions. Without the restoration of oil flows through the strait, the growing shortfall in petroleum products will accelerate the rise in oil prices and destruction in global oil demand.Wed, 20 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/impact-energy-crisis-public-finances-emerging-Asia-5/13/2026,53477johanna.melka@bnpparibas.comIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaEmerging CountriesThailandFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesBanking economicsEconomic growthEnergyEconomic policyEmerging Asian countries are particularly vulnerable to the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Beyond supply issues, rising prices pose a significant risk to these countries, where domestic demand is a major driver of economic growth. To limit the impact, some Asian countries (notably India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) have opted to partially subsidise energy and fertilisers. The additional cost to their public finances is expected to remain manageable provided that the average crude oil price does not exceed USD 100 per barrel over the year. However, this subsidy policy poses risks to their public finances, particularly if external financing conditions tighten. Indonesia is the country most exposed to a rise in US long-term interest rates.Wed, 13 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/France-inflation-starting-spread-still-sparing-consumer-goods-services-5/6/2026,53467stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comFranceEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe energy shock is beginning to feed through into French inflation. In March and April, inflation was limited to refining activities and fuel prices. It is expected to affect more sectors in the second quarter, according to the European Commission’s survey on three-month selling price expectations. In France, the pass-through is expected to mainly affect intermediate goods in Q2. However, inflationary pressures on consumer goods and services or construction are expected to remain quite moderate. These factors are consistent with our scenario of a limited acceleration in French inflation and a moderate impact of the energy shock on growth.Wed, 06 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Italy-Strategic-Import-Risk-Exposure-Europe-Deeper-Fault-Lines-Energy-4/29/2026,53451simona.costagli@bnpparibas.comItalyEurozoneInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyThe trade openness of EU countries represents both a strength and a weakness, making active initiatives necessary to enhance economic security. According to the World Bank, in 2024 the EU’s trade openness stood at 92%, compared with 25% for the United States and 37% for China. For Italy, the figure was 63%, among the highest among Member States, with particularly strong exposure to extra-EU demand. The evolution of the international geopolitical and economic context, together with the country’s dependence on the import of energy materials, suggests that careful consideration should be given to the potential vulnerability of Italian imports to possible total or partial disruptions in the external supply of strategically significant products.Wed, 29 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016