Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Strategic-product-vulnerability-China-least-Europe-US-9/16/2026,53750koen.deleus@bnpparibas.comChinaUnited StatesEuropean unionFiscal policyDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic policy“Germany is too dependent on the US for its security, on Russia for its energy and on China for its exports.” That was, in essence, Brookings’ Constanze Stelzenmüller’s diagnosis in June 2022, and it was – and is – valid as well for Europe as a whole. But does this dependency also apply to technological and industrial products? The European Commission’s EXternal Vulnerability Index (EXVI) answers that very question, mapping out the EU’s exposure to foreign supply chains.Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-financing-conditions-holding-well-against-energy-shock-9/9/2026,53740francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyBanking economicsInflationEconomic policySix months have passed since the start of America’s and Israel’s military intervention in Iran and Lebanon. What picture is emerging around the impact of this external shock on the financing conditions of the major emerging economies and on exchange rate movements? And what parallels can be drawn with the 2022 energy shock?Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/GDP-growth-stronger-than-thought-9/2/2026,53718stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comGermanyUnited StatesFranceDeveloped economiesEconomic growthEnergyEconomic policyStatistical agencies often revise growth figures a posteriori, and generally upwards. But this takes time, as their data often become more comprehensive and accurate after two years. France is seeing the largest upward revisions over this timeframe, and, generally, these revisions are more pronounced in Europe than in the United States.Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/French-corporates-peaks-creations-peaks-bankruptcies-into-perspective-7/22/2026,53676thomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comFranceDeveloped economiesBanking economicsEmployment and labour market Economic growthIn June 2026, corporate creations cumulated over one year remained dynamic, reaching a historic peak according to INSEE, with 1,233,123 corporates set up, representing a 11.1% year-on-year increase. This momentum is not a recent phenomenon, as corporate creations have doubled over the last decade. During this same period, the rise in bankruptcies has been ten times lower, which serves to put current levels (approximately 70,000 bankruptcies cumulated over one year in March 2026) into perspective. Historically, the peaks and troughs in corporate bankruptcies are following those of corporate creations, with an average lag of 24 to 36 months. Therefore, the absolute number of bankruptcies provides an incomplete reflection of the financial health of the French production base, and must be supplemented by other indicators.Wed, 22 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/conflict-Middle-East-massive-blow-growth-Gulf-7/15/2026,53632stephane.alby@bnpparibas.comFiscal policyMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEnergyFor the first time since 2009 (excluding COVID), the GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to contract this year (-0.8%), whereas pre-conflict forecasts had predicted growth of 4.7%. Far from benefiting from the sharp rise in energy prices triggered by the conflict, the scale of the downturn reflects the severity of a shock that is undermining many of the pillars of the Gulf economies. Nevertheless, the consequences are varying from one country to another, depending on the level of diversification and, above all, on the degree of vulnerability to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/intra-EU-trade-finds-balance-7/9/2026,53618guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comEuropean unionDeveloped economiesThe share of intra-EU exports in total European exports currently stands at around 62%, a level comparable to that seen in the early 2000s. Behind this apparent stability, however, lies a deep reshuffling of the major blocs that make up the European Union. Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Italy-productivity-challenges-AI-provide-solution-7/1/2026,53606paola.verduci@bnpparibas.comItalyFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthArtificial intelligenceIn the years following the pandemic, labour productivity in Italy has stalled. Artificial intelligence is identified as a potential catalyst for reversing this trend, with projections indicating possible annual productivity growth increases of up to 1.1 p.p. in a scenario of rapid adoption. However, the actual adoption of AI in Italy is still low, despite a faster growth rate compared with its main Euro area counterparts. As of 2025, only 16.4% of Italian companies with more than 10 employees were using AI. In the financial and insurance sectors, adoption rates are above average (39%, peaking at 70% in insurance). However, the application remains largely superficial, primarily focused on support activities such as fraud detection, process automation and customer relations, while its use in trading and post-trading activities remains largely experimental.Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Latin-America-Adding-Value-Critical-Minerals-Beyond-Mining-6/24/2026,53589helene.drouot@bnpparibas.comClimate changeInternational TradeConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe global race for artificial intelligence and the electrification of economies is leading to an increase in demand for metals. A recent study by S&P Global indicates that global electricity consumption is projected to grow by nearly 50% by 2040, fuelling a sustained rise in demand for copper, lithium, nickel, and other critical minerals. According to the International Energy Agency, demand for copper could rise by 30 to 40% by 2040, while demand for lithium could increase four- to sixfold, depending on the pace of adoption of low-carbon technologies.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/decade-referendum-UK-facing-consequences-Brexit-6/17/2026,53559marianne.mueller@bnpparibas.comUnited KingdomFinancial markets and investmentsFinancial regulationsInternational TradeEconomic growthArtificial intelligence23 June will mark the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum, which led to the UK’s official exit from the European Union on 31 January 2020 (followed by a transition period). Since then, the country has indeed regained control over certain policy domains, such as trade, migration and regulatory frameworks. However, both the anticipation of Brexit and its actual implementation in 2021 have been linked to a decline in the country’s performance across several key indicators. Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions and mounting shared challenges, the UK is now seeking to re-establish practical collaboration with its main economic partner: the European Union.Wed, 17 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016