Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-7/31/2026,53700helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe expectation that the surge in inflation, driven by this new energy shock, would be more moderate than in 2022 (with demand being less dynamic and supply less constrained) is confirmed. However, following the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in mid-June between the United States and Iran, inflationary risk has eased but has not disappeared. This MoU had seemed to reduce the risk of a severe escalation of the conflict, but since mid-July and the resumption of hostilities, it has entered a new phase of tensions, once again driving up hydrocarbon prices. When comparing the impact on economic activity, through confidence surveys, of the current energy shock to that of 2022 (following the conflict in Ukraine), it appears to be also generally more limited, thanks to a better performance of the business climate in the manufacturing sector.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-July-confidence-surveys-positive-inflation-picks-only-slightly-7/31/2026,53701helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe assessment of the July data is positive and reinforces the encouraging signals from May and June data. According to PMI business climate surveys, price pressures continued to ease, as did supply tensions through slightly shorter delivery times. The business climate in the manufacturing sector resumed improving, almost erasing the two months of previous decline. The business climate in the services sector and consumer confidence continues to recover. The July surveys are not impacted by the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East and by the ensuing rise in energy prices, partly because responses were, for the most part, collected beforehand. A relapse in August is highly likely if the geopolitical situation remains degraded. As for inflation, it picked up as expected, alongside the higher energy prices, but in a limited way (+0.1 percentage point, at 2.9% year-on-year). Inflation excluding energy remained stable at 2.2%.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-June-brought-inflation-some-relief-7/31/2026,53702anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe memorandum of understanding, signed in mid-June between the US and Iran, improved US data before hostilities resumed in mid-July. Headline CPI posted its first monthly drop (-0.4% m/m) since 2020 in June, driven by gasoline prices (-9.7% m/m). It stood at 3.5% y/y, down sharply from May’s 4.2% but still 1.1pp above pre-conflict levels. Inflation excl. energy eased as well (-0.2pp to 2.7% y/y), edging back towards its February reading.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Industrial-activity-resilient-rebound-inflation-less-significant-2026-than-2022-foreign-investors-nervous-7/31/2026,53703christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe acceleration in consumer price inflation since February 2026 is much less significant than in 2022, and it stopped in May and June 2026. The average CPI inflation rate for the fifteen main emerging economies was estimated at 4.6% y/y in June, against 4.8% in April. The inflationary shock is more moderate than in 2022 notably due to more limited spillovers to agricultural and food prices.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Renewed-tensions-Strait-Hormuz-seasonal-factors-drive-prices-higher-7/31/2026,53704pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeEnergyOil and gas markets lack direction amid persistent instability in the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices have thus far reacted similarly to the two energy shocks (2022 and 2026), the rise in gas prices remains lower than the increase seen following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-July-2026-7/31/2026,53707Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChristine PELTIERchristine.peltier@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFranceJapanEmerging CountriesEurozoneInflationEnergyIn advanced economies, June inflation declined temporarily but bounced back in July, reflecting the moves in energy prices. Forward indicators of price pressures eased again in July. Long-term inflation expectations held steady as near-term expectations pulled back (UK excepted). At this stage, there is no sign of a wage-price spiral. In emerging economies, average CPI inflation fell back slightly in June after three months of increase. As for commodities, we see a broad-based rebound as tensions resurface. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-Eurozone-Special-Issue-June-2026-data-7/10/2026,53621helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationWhen we compare the impact on economic activity of the current energy shock with that of 2022 (following the conflict in Ukraine), the favorable point in 2026, for the euro area, is the business climate in the manufacturing sector, which is holding up better than in 2022. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply but to a lesser extent in 2026 than in 2022. As for the deterioration in the business climate in the services sector, it was immediate in 2026, whereas it occurred with a few months' delay in 2022. The assessment of the June data is positive and reinforces the encouraging signals from May data. Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-June-2026-Global-inflation-remains-under-pressure-signs-stabilisation-emerge-6/25/2026,53594Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comHélène BAUDCHONhelene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChristine PELTIERchristine.peltier@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInflationEnergyIn advanced economies, inflation continues to rise due to the energy shock, but there are still no signs of a wage-price spiral. According to survey data, price pressure indicators edged higher with the exception of Japan. In emerging economies, inflation increased moderately due to the energy shock. As for commodity prices, they have been falling since the announcement of the agreement protocol between the United States and Iran.Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-6/24/2026,53584helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe energy shock triggered by the war in Iran is reviving inflation, but to a lesser extent than in 2022. May data supports this view. However, the situation still needs to be monitored closely. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding provides some relief, yet many uncertainties remain. A return to normal conditions on the oil markets will take time, and the current easing of oil prices must prove durable. Inflation—driven by the lagged effects of tensions on oil, commodities and value chains—is expected to stay elevated for several more months. This will justify a more restrictive stance from central banks.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-Inflation-remains-driven-energy-pressures-continue-develop-intensifying-confidence-enjoys-respite-6/24/2026,53586helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe assessment of the available data for May is rather positive. Granted, inflation keeps rising, but the contribution of the "energy" component remains dominant. Confidence enjoys a respite: business confidence in services and consumer confidence are sources of good news.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-prices-pushes-inflation-higher-household-sentiment-under-growing-pressure-6/24/2026,53585anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyBusiness sentiment, which was on an upward trajectory before the shock, stayed resilient but signaled a faster input-price growth and longer delivery times, both directly linked to Middle East turmoil and coming on top of the issue of tariffs. Meanwhile, the outlook of households, which were already low on optimism has further deteriorated.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Manufacturing-activity-seems-holding-much-better-than-2022-while-volatility-capital-flows-reflects-investors-nervousness-6/24/2026,53587francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyIn May 2026, the average CPI inflation rate for the main emerging economies was broadly stable at 4.7% y/y after 4.8% in April. The shock is still contained compared to 2022 due to limited spillover to agricultural and food prices. Manufacturers’ opinion on the trend in input & output prices has stopped deteriorating but remains higher than in 2022.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Prospects-reopening-strait-easing-tensions-hydrocarbon-market-prices-remain-high-6/24/2026,53588pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeEnergyUntil the agreement extending the ceasefire (second half of June), European oil and gas prices had reacted more strongly to the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East than they had to the shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is no longer the case now that the prospects for a resumption of traffic through the strait of Hormuz are becoming more tangible.Wed, 24 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-2026-5/28/2026,53513Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comHélène BAUDCHONhelene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChristine PELTIERchristine.peltier@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInflationEnergyInflation continues to rise globally, in both advanced and emerging economies, and remains largely driven by energy prices.Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-5/19/2026,53493helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyWill the same causes produce the same effects? In other words, will the war in Iran and the resulting surge in oil and gas prices lead to an inflationary shock comparable to that seen in 2022? Will their negative effects on growth be the same as those for the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy shock? Although there are similarities, there are many uncertainties.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-inflation-rise-remains-energy-driven-pressures-mounting-consumer-services-sector-confidence-deteriorating-sharply-5/19/2026,53494helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe assessment of the available data for April is more negative than in March. Inflation rose by 1.1 percentage points in two months, an increase that is however still solely driven by the "energy" component. Excluding energy as well as excluding “energy and food," inflation recorded a new slight decline in April. However inflationary pressures are mounting, through rising input prices and — new development in April — the beginning of an increase in output prices according to PMIs surveys. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Iran-pushes-inflation-higher-sustains-downward-pressure-household-sentiment-5/19/2026,53495anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyEconomic policyCPI inflation recorded its largest monthly increase since 2022 in March, before reaching 3.8% y/y in April (+1.4pp in two months and a highest since 2023) – almost entirely on the back of gasoline prices, with the non-energy index edging up only moderately.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Manufacturing-activity-seems-holding-much-better-than-2022-inflation-shock-spreading-5/19/2026,53496francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInflationEnergyEconomic policyIn April 2026, the inflationary impact of the oil price shock is spreading as the average CPI inflation rate for the main emerging economies reached 4.8% year-on-year, compared with 3.9% in February. The shock is still contained compared to 2022 due to limited spillover to agricultural and food prices. However, manufacturers’ opinion on the trend in input & output prices have deteriorated significantly. The contagion of oil and gas prices to fertiliser and oil-derived input prices is being felt more acutely.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/sharp-rise-exports-providing-temporary-relief-market-prices-remain-high-5/19/2026,53497pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyEconomic policyThe growing loss of barrels available on the market due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, repeated attacks on production capacity in the Gulf, and restrictions on traffic through the Strait increase the risk of a physical oil shortage in the short term. This has led to a sharp reaction in the prices of physical barrels (dated Brent). In recent weeks, better pricing of this risk of shortage has caused the prices of futures (Brent) to converge with that of the physical barrel (dated Brent). Furthermore, the sharp rise in oil exports from the United States and, to a lesser extent, the decline in Chinese imports have eased tensions in the physical market and pushed prices lower.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-April-2026-4/28/2026,53447Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comHélène BAUDCHONhelene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comGlobalDeveloped economiesInflationIn this new issue: General dynamics of inflation: A clear rebound, driven by energy prices, now spreading across all countries. Inflation and survey data: Price pressure indicators are surging, signaling an early warning for further sharp increases ahead. Inflation expectations (households, forecasters, markets): For now, short-term inflation expectations – whether from households (especially in the US), forecasters, or markets – are rising noticeably. Longer-term expectations remain stable. Inflation-wage dynamics: A wage-price spiral is unlikely at this stage, and the risk remains contained. Under the impact of the war in the Middle East, inflation is returning to the forefront in advanced economies. Our barometer will be regularly updated to track its repercussions.Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016