Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-October-2026-Energy-pushes-headline-inflation-higher-core-measures-still-contained-10/16/2026,53854United StatesFranceJapanEmerging CountriesEurozoneInflationEnergyRising energy prices are pushing inflation higher in Europe and the United States, while energy’s contribution is slightly negative in Japan. Over recent months (3m/3m), core indices have been firming in the euro area and Japan: a signal to watch. In Europe and Japan, pressure on producer prices is building. The risk of the energy shock spilling over to other CPI items is increasing. Markets (swaps) are pricing this rise in inflation into short-term measures. Long-term expectations (5y5y) are rising in Japan and the UK. Fri, 16 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Business-creations-bankruptcies-France-double-digit-growth-business-creations-lower-growth-bankruptcies-stable-performing-loans-10/8/2026,53840Stéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comThomas HUMBLOTthomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comFranceBanking economicsEmployment and labour market Eco Charts | Business creations and bankruptcies is a new publication aimed at providing an overview of the dynamics of business creations and bankruptcies in France, as well as the risks associated with the latter. We will publish regular updates to this publication on a quarterly basis.Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-October-2026-10/2/2026,53812helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEuropean unionEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyOverall, based on data available through September 2026, economic activity continues to show resilience. The high levels of business climate surveys illustrate this well. Household confidence, however, is more vulnerable and sensitive to energy price pressures. Financing conditions in emerging economies also continue to hold up well against the shock (much better than in 2022) as well as against the tensions in DM bond markets.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-Amid-rising-inflation-business-climate-remains-resilient-consumer-confidence-falls-back-10/2/2026,53813helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneInternational TradeInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe overall picture from the confidence surveys available for September is globally positive. According to the PMIs, the business climate in services has indeed seen a clear improvement, and that in the manufacturing sector remains comfortably in expansion territory for the 8th month in a row. However, household confidence has recorded its first decline in 5 months, likely driven by rising inflation and concerns over purchasing power.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Elevated-inflation-high-growth-10/2/2026,53814helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesInternational TradeInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyUS macroeconomic performance has remained solid since the onset of the shock, as illustrated in particular by Q2 growth of +3.8% and +9% (annualized quarterly rate) in consumer spending and private nonresidential investment, respectively. In the manufacturing sector, business sentiment has gained momentum despite the shock, while the impact of this shock on the services sector has remained very limited. The immediate reaction of consumer confidence was, however, more negative before beginning to improve, which was nevertheless interrupted in August.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Summer-stabilisation-10/2/2026,53815francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe average CPI inflation rate across the fifteen leading emerging economies stabilised at 4.3% year-on-year in August. The inflationary impact remains weaker than in 2022, due in particular to reduced spillover effects on agricultural and food prices. Manufacturers’ views on the trend in input and finished product prices have returned to their pre-conflict levels.Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Upward-pressure-across-hydrocarbon-markets-10/2/2026,53816pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyOil and gas markets rose in September, primarily due to the resurgence of significant disruptions to hydrocarbon traffic in the Gulf. Red Sea flows have been constrained, while the substantial oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains fragile. In variation, the current rise in oil and gas prices exceeds the one recorded during the 2022 crisis, although in value, gas prices remain significantly lower than in 2022. Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-9/3/2026,53725helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyOverall, based on data available through August 2026, the inflationary impact and the negative effect on activity of the current energy shock remain significantly lower than the 2022 shock. Due to renewed tensions in the conflict in Iran and, consequently, on hydrocarbon prices, inflation is moving up again, but still in a limited way for now and driven solely by energy prices. Overall, confidence surveys do not show any signs of these negative trends.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-Inflation-rises-further-driven-energy-prices-inflationary-pressures-easing-further-confidence-surveys-continue-improve-9/3/2026,53730helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyIn the Eurozone, the overall picture from the data available for August is positive in terms of confidence surveys and reinforces the encouraging signs seen in previous months. According to PMI surveys, inflationary pressures continue to ease, while supply-side tensions have stabilised. Business sentiment in the services sector remains stable, anchoring its previous gains, while confidence in the manufacturing sector shows a further—and marked—improvement. Another notable and encouraging development is the recovery in consumer confidence for the fourth consecutive month. Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Activity-shrugs-energy-shock-9/3/2026,53726anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyThe US economy has held up well since the shock began. Consumption and business investment grew at a 4.1% annualized pace in Q2. At the same time, the scope for energy-driven disinflation has narrowed: WTI (the US reference) has averaged USD 82/bbl since 8 July, ranging between USD 72-92.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Good-resilience-especially-regarding-financing-conditions-9/3/2026,53727francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyInflation eased in June and July. The average CPI inflation rate across the fifteen leading emerging economies fell to 4.3% year-on-year in July, down from 4.8% in April. The inflationary impact remains weaker than in 2022, due in particular to reduced spillover effects on agricultural and food prices. Manufacturers’ views on the trend in input and finished product prices have returned to their pre-conflict levels. However, against a backdrop of increasingly frequent and destructive extreme weather events, pressure on agricultural and food prices is likely to continue.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/fragile-market-equilibrium-maintains-elevated-price-levels-9/3/2026,53728pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyEconomic policyOil and gas markets remain volatile and followed different trajectories during August. The gas market does not benefit from the buffers in place in the crude oil market. Oil prices have stabilised at a high level, widening the gap compared to the 2022 crisis. While the increase in gas prices remains lower than that seen following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the pace of the price increase is high.Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-7/31/2026,53700helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe expectation that the surge in inflation, driven by this new energy shock, would be more moderate than in 2022 (with demand being less dynamic and supply less constrained) is confirmed. However, following the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in mid-June between the United States and Iran, inflationary risk has eased but has not disappeared. This MoU had seemed to reduce the risk of a severe escalation of the conflict, but since mid-July and the resumption of hostilities, it has entered a new phase of tensions, once again driving up hydrocarbon prices. When comparing the impact on economic activity, through confidence surveys, of the current energy shock to that of 2022 (following the conflict in Ukraine), it appears to be also generally more limited, thanks to a better performance of the business climate in the manufacturing sector.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-July-confidence-surveys-positive-inflation-picks-only-slightly-7/31/2026,53701helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe assessment of the July data is positive and reinforces the encouraging signals from May and June data. According to PMI business climate surveys, price pressures continued to ease, as did supply tensions through slightly shorter delivery times. The business climate in the manufacturing sector resumed improving, almost erasing the two months of previous decline. The business climate in the services sector and consumer confidence continues to recover. The July surveys are not impacted by the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East and by the ensuing rise in energy prices, partly because responses were, for the most part, collected beforehand. A relapse in August is highly likely if the geopolitical situation remains degraded. As for inflation, it picked up as expected, alongside the higher energy prices, but in a limited way (+0.1 percentage point, at 2.9% year-on-year). Inflation excluding energy remained stable at 2.2%.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-June-brought-inflation-some-relief-7/31/2026,53702anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe memorandum of understanding, signed in mid-June between the US and Iran, improved US data before hostilities resumed in mid-July. Headline CPI posted its first monthly drop (-0.4% m/m) since 2020 in June, driven by gasoline prices (-9.7% m/m). It stood at 3.5% y/y, down sharply from May’s 4.2% but still 1.1pp above pre-conflict levels. Inflation excl. energy eased as well (-0.2pp to 2.7% y/y), edging back towards its February reading.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Industrial-activity-resilient-rebound-inflation-less-significant-2026-than-2022-foreign-investors-nervous-7/31/2026,53703christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe acceleration in consumer price inflation since February 2026 is much less significant than in 2022, and it stopped in May and June 2026. The average CPI inflation rate for the fifteen main emerging economies was estimated at 4.6% y/y in June, against 4.8% in April. The inflationary shock is more moderate than in 2022 notably due to more limited spillovers to agricultural and food prices.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Renewed-tensions-Strait-Hormuz-seasonal-factors-drive-prices-higher-7/31/2026,53704pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeEnergyOil and gas markets lack direction amid persistent instability in the Strait of Hormuz. While oil prices have thus far reacted similarly to the two energy shocks (2022 and 2026), the rise in gas prices remains lower than the increase seen following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-July-2026-7/31/2026,53707Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChristine PELTIERchristine.peltier@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFranceJapanEmerging CountriesEurozoneInflationEnergyIn advanced economies, June inflation declined temporarily but bounced back in July, reflecting the moves in energy prices. Forward indicators of price pressures eased again in July. Long-term inflation expectations held steady as near-term expectations pulled back (UK excepted). At this stage, there is no sign of a wage-price spiral. In emerging economies, average CPI inflation fell back slightly in June after three months of increase. As for commodities, we see a broad-based rebound as tensions resurface. Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016