Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-2026-5/28/2026,53513Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comHélène BAUDCHONhelene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChristine PELTIERchristine.peltier@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInflationEnergyInflation continues to rise globally, in both advanced and emerging economies, and remains largely driven by energy prices.Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-5/19/2026,53493helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyWill the same causes produce the same effects? In other words, will the war in Iran and the resulting surge in oil and gas prices lead to an inflationary shock comparable to that seen in 2022? Will their negative effects on growth be the same as those for the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy shock? Although there are similarities, there are many uncertainties.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-inflation-rise-remains-energy-driven-pressures-mounting-consumer-services-sector-confidence-deteriorating-sharply-5/19/2026,53494helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe assessment of the available data for April is more negative than in March. Inflation rose by 1.1 percentage points in two months, an increase that is however still solely driven by the "energy" component. Excluding energy as well as excluding “energy and food," inflation recorded a new slight decline in April. However inflationary pressures are mounting, through rising input prices and — new development in April — the beginning of an increase in output prices according to PMIs surveys. Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Iran-pushes-inflation-higher-sustains-downward-pressure-household-sentiment-5/19/2026,53495anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyEconomic policyCPI inflation recorded its largest monthly increase since 2022 in March, before reaching 3.8% y/y in April (+1.4pp in two months and a highest since 2023) – almost entirely on the back of gasoline prices, with the non-energy index edging up only moderately.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-economies-Manufacturing-activity-seems-holding-much-better-than-2022-inflation-shock-spreading-5/19/2026,53496francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInflationEnergyEconomic policyIn April 2026, the inflationary impact of the oil price shock is spreading as the average CPI inflation rate for the main emerging economies reached 4.8% year-on-year, compared with 3.9% in February. The shock is still contained compared to 2022 due to limited spillover to agricultural and food prices. However, manufacturers’ opinion on the trend in input & output prices have deteriorated significantly. The contagion of oil and gas prices to fertiliser and oil-derived input prices is being felt more acutely.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/sharp-rise-exports-providing-temporary-relief-market-prices-remain-high-5/19/2026,53497pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyEconomic policyThe growing loss of barrels available on the market due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, repeated attacks on production capacity in the Gulf, and restrictions on traffic through the Strait increase the risk of a physical oil shortage in the short term. This has led to a sharp reaction in the prices of physical barrels (dated Brent). In recent weeks, better pricing of this risk of shortage has caused the prices of futures (Brent) to converge with that of the physical barrel (dated Brent). Furthermore, the sharp rise in oil exports from the United States and, to a lesser extent, the decline in Chinese imports have eased tensions in the physical market and pushed prices lower.Tue, 19 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Tracker-April-2026-4/28/2026,53447Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comHélène BAUDCHONhelene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comGlobalDeveloped economiesInflationIn this new issue: General dynamics of inflation: A clear rebound, driven by energy prices, now spreading across all countries. Inflation and survey data: Price pressure indicators are surging, signaling an early warning for further sharp increases ahead. Inflation expectations (households, forecasters, markets): For now, short-term inflation expectations – whether from households (especially in the US), forecasters, or markets – are rising noticeably. Longer-term expectations remain stable. Inflation-wage dynamics: A wage-price spiral is unlikely at this stage, and the risk remains contained. Under the impact of the war in the Middle East, inflation is returning to the forefront in advanced economies. Our barometer will be regularly updated to track its repercussions.Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/GDP-Growth-Nowcasts-estimates-4/21/2026,53383Anis BENSAIDANIanis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comStéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comTarik RHARRABtarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationOur nowcasts for France, Eurozone and the United States.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Overview-Resilient-growth-first-quarter-2026-4/21/2026,53384lucie.barette@bnpparibas.comGlobalEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceSolid growth in Q1 2026. According to our nowcast, growth is expected to strengthen in the Eurozone (+0.4% q/q, after +0.2% in Q4) and in France (+0.3% q/q, after +0.2% in Q4), driven by a positive momentum despite the energy shock that began in March. In the United States, the rebound suggested by the GDP Now (+0.3% q/q, after +0.1% in Q4) is underestimated. This is because this indicator does not take into account the favourable post-shutdown effect (which our forecast of 0.9% q/q, non-annualised, does). In the other major Eurozone economies, growth is expected to have remained broadly stable: in Germany and Italy, the pace is expected to remain close to Q4 2025 levels (+0.3% q/q), thanks to public demand (investment and consumption). The United Kingdom is expected to see an acceleration (+0.3%, after +0.1% in Q4) due to strong production performance at the end of Q1 2026. In Japan, growth is expected to increase slightly (+0.4% q/q, compared with +0.3% in Q4). In China, it accelerated in Q1 (+1.3% q/q, compared with +1.2% in Q4). In all countries, a tendency to stockpile (before inflation accelerated) may have boosted growth for the quarter.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-Resilience-Q1-uncertainty-ahead-4/21/2026,53385Guillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comThomas HUMBLOTthomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comEurozoneDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationActivity indices are holding up, but household confidence is eroding. Business sentiment indicators did not falter in March, and prospects of price rises are confined to a few sectors (oil and chemicals). The downturn is, at this stage, less pronounced in services and construction. Household confidence is deteriorating more noticeably against a backdrop of significantly rising inflation expectations and gloomier prospects for economic activity and unemployment.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Germany-Momentum-continues-Q1-risk-pull-back-Q2-4/21/2026,53386Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comThomas HUMBLOTthomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comGermanyDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationThe energy shock has mainly resulted in precautionary behaviour on the part of firms, which increased their inventories in March. This reflects the sharp rise in input costs (which are still below their 2022 levels, however). In the short term, the build-up of corporate inventories (prior to the acceleration in inflation) has supported production. The rise in energy prices does not appear, at this stage, to have affected household spending behaviour.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/France-Growth-held-well-Q1-4/21/2026,53387Stéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comThomas HUMBLOTthomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comFranceDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationThe impact of the energy price shock has been limited so far. Expected price indices rebounded only slightly in March, across all sectors (a very different situation to 2022). For the time being, this shock does not involve any major supply constraints. Output is likely to be more severely affected by falling demand as the issue of purchasing power resurfaces. Although this is a concern for households, they have not yet scaled back their spending intentions.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Italy-Good-momentum-Q1-less-certainty-thereafter-4/21/2026,53388Lucie BARETTElucie.barette@bnpparibas.comThomas HUMBLOTthomas.humblot@bnpparibas.comItalyDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationBusiness sentiment remains solid for the time being, despite the energy shock. Above all, companies are reporting, above all, a rise in input costs, which is expected to lead to higher prices for goods sold in the coming months. Output remains buoyant, in both industry and services. However, household confidence is deteriorating significantly, driven by sharply rising inflation expectations.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-Kingdom-Following-rebound-growth-Q1-risk-stagflation-from-Q2-onwards-emerges-4/21/2026,53389marianne.mueller@bnpparibas.comUnited KingdomDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationSurveys suggest a healthy level of activity in Q1 but are already showing signs of deterioration from Q2 onwards. Business sentiment indicators were fairly positive at the start of 2026. However, they now point to a downturn, with a resurgence of supply constraints and an expected deterioration in demand (from both businesses and households). The manufacturing output index is contracting for the first time in six months.? Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Business-sentiment-remains-buoyant-4/21/2026,53390anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationBusiness sentiment surveys point to a healthy economy, despite the energy shock. In March, business sentiment (ISM PMI) remained in expansion territory in both the manufacturing (which hit a four-year high) and non-manufacturing sectors, but supplier delivery times extended and, above all, input-price growth accelerated (and stood at a high not seen since 2022). By contrast, consumer sentiment (Michigan) has dipped sharply. Expectations deteriorated, particularly around 1-year inflation.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Japan-Strong-growth-Q1-4/21/2026,53391anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comJapanDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationThe economy was in good health before the energy shock. Business sentiment (PMI) reached a high not seen since 2013 in Q1 2026, but March data pointed to a slowdown. New household concerns were evident that same month in the decline in consumer confidence (following a post-COVID high in February), which was widespread across its sub-components (overall livelihood, willingness to buy durable goods). This brought an end to an upward trend spanning several months.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/China-Serenity-4/21/2026,53392christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comChinaEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEconomic growth accelerated in Q1, driven by the export-oriented manufacturing sector. The improvement in the business climate within the industry had signalled a strengthening of activity. Industrial production growth reached 6.1% year-on-year in Q1, vs. 5.0% in Q4 2025, supported by a sharp rise in exports – particularly of electronic goods. This momentum contributed to a slight recovery in investment in Q1. Growth in services, meanwhile, slowed from 5.6% y/y in Q4 2025 to 5.0% in Q1 2026. The rebound in retail sales observed in January–February did not last, due in particular to the waning impact of government subsidy schemes. The consumer confidence index has been recovering slowly for several months, but remains very low. The contraction in property transactions and house prices continued.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-Dashboard-2026-2022-4/17/2026,53368helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesGlobalEmerging CountriesEurozoneInflationEnergyWe have selected a set of indicators to track the impact of this new energy shock, caused by the war in the Middle East, on activity and prices in the Eurozone, the United States, oil and gas markets and emerging countries, and to see how much the current situation resembles the situation in 2022 at the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.This dashboard featuring graphs and comments will be updated on a monthly basis for as long as necessary.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-assessment-available-data-date-relatively-positive-4/17/2026,53369helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneInflationThe assessment of the available data to date is relatively positive, as the immediate reaction of confidence surveys and inflation was limited and the overall developments were less unfavourable in March 2026 than in March 2022. This is good news, but it does not prejudge what will happen next at all. It is likely that the deterioration observed will continue: the question is by how much.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-Iran-delivered-quick-though-relatively-contained-negative-impact-US-activity-data-surveys-4/17/2026,53370anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesInflationThe Iran war delivered a quick, though relatively contained, negative impact to US activity data and surveys.By March, CPI inflation recorded its largest monthly increase since 2022 and reached +3.3% y/y (+0.9 pp) –almost entirely on the back of gasoline prices, with the non-energy index remaining virtually stable.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-markets-inflationary-impact-surge-prices-remained-moderate-4/17/2026,53371francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInflationIn March 2026, the inflationary impact of the surge in oil and gas prices remained moderate, both in absolute terms with an average inflation rate for the main emerging countries of 4.3% compared to 3.9% in February, and relative to 2022. The absence of contagion to agricultural and food prices is the main explanation. Manufacturers' opinion on input prices is, moreover, less degraded than in 2022. However, a catch-up should occur with the expected release of the rise in fertilizer and petroleum-derived input prices to all prices.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-shock-induced-stronger-reaction-European-spot-prices-than-observed-2022-4/17/2026,53372pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInflationEnergyThe energy shock implied by the war in the Middle East has, for now, induced stronger reaction in oil and European gas spot prices than those observed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Fri, 17 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016