Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Reopening-Strait-Hormuz-market-short-term-relief-persisting-uncertainties-6/16/2026,53557pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe United States and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to traffic. The oil markets reacted swiftly: Brent prices have fallen by around 7% since the announcement and by 32% from a peak reached on 29 April. However, they remain 27% above the average for January. Despite this optimism, a comeback to normality for the oil market is likely to take several weeks. Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/ECB-adjustment-necessarily-start-tightening-cycle-6/12/2026,53540guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comEurozoneMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationAs expected, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. This decision, taken unanimously, reflects the Governing Council's conviction that the persistence of the energy shock warrants a monetary policy response. The ECB revised its inflation outlook upward more significantly than its growth forecasts downward. It also updated its alternative scenarios relative to the central scenario (one more favorable, two adverse). Christine Lagarde emphasized that today's decision was "robust" across all scenarios.Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Four-Central-Banks-Active-Hold-4/30/2026,53455Anis BENSAIDANIanis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comIsabelle MATEOS Y LAGOisabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe central banks of the world’s leading advanced economies met this week, and all decided to leave their policy rates unchanged despite significantly higher inflation prints and outlooks. In the words of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, these were “active holds”. They are not fully hawkish yet, but the hawks have made their dissent heard while still in the minority. But they are no longer in a pure passive “wait-and-see” mode. We expect hikes to come through in June, at least for the BoE, BoJ and ECB.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/France-factors-largely-account-zero-growth-Q1-4/30/2026,53453stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comFranceFinancial markets and investmentsBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyFrench growth was lower than expected in the first quarter, at 0% QoQ, mainly hampered by exceptional factors, mostly aeronautics deliveries and public investment. These factors explain why this figure is significantly lower than our nowcast and that of the Banque de France, which estimated that growth had reached 0.3% in Q1, based on production indicators in industry and services. This lead taken by production is reflected in a strongly positive contribution from changes in inventories (+0.8 percentage points), driven mainly by transport equipment.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Elections-Hungary-strong-mandate-tackle-economic-challenges-4/14/2026,53359cynthia.kalasopatanantoine@bnpparibas.comHungaryEuropean unionFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesEconomic policyIn Hungary, Péter Magyar’s pro-European centre-right party won a landslide victory in the general election held on 12 April. According to the latest official estimates, Tisza is reported to have secured a supermajority, which would give it significant room for manoeuvre to drive through institutional reforms. The new government will nevertheless face several challenges, including the release of European funds essential for revitalising the economy, and the consolidation of public finances. Meanwhile, the partnership with China in the field of electric mobility remains a priority.Tue, 14 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Inflation-Eurozone-France-start-rebound-3/30/2026,53325Stéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comFranceEurozoneMonetary policyBanking economicsInflationEnergyEconomic policyInflation in both the Eurozone and France is expected to return to levels not seen since the summer of 2024. In March, we forecast 2.6% y/y in the Eurozone (compared with 1.9% in February). In France, where inflation is starting from a much lower base (1.1% in February), it is expected to reach 1.7% y/y in March, rising to 2.1% in May. This rebound in inflation is attributable to the sharp increase in energy prices, which has not yet been passed on to core prices. Business surveys point to a rebound in input prices. However, they do not currently suggest an increase in selling prices in the second quarter, either in France or in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, a rebound in core inflation is expected from the second half of the year. This could prompt the ECB to begin monetary tightening from June (by a cumulative 75 basis points by the autumn, according to our forecasts). Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/French-public-finances-positive-outcome-2025-confirmed-2026-3/27/2026,53323stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comFranceFiscal policyEconomic growthEconomic policyAccording to INSEE, the French public deficit in 2025 improved by 0.7pp at 5.1% of GDP (the government targeted 5.4%). This improvement is due to the rebound in the rate of compulsory levies (CL). The public debt ratio is also below projections (115.6% versus 116.2%), although its increase in 2025 was as expected (+3pp). This evolution, along with the repercussions of the shock in Iran, particularly regarding interest rates, suggest to stick with fiscal consolidation efforts in 2026. The deficit is expected to benefit from a better starting point, the anticipated increase in the CL included in the 2026 budget, and the likely favourable impact on revenue from higher nominal growth in 2026. However, the government’s leeway to support households and businesses in front of the inflationary shock is more constrained than in 2021–23. This support is therefore likely to be more limited this time around.Fri, 27 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016