Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eurozone-pulls-level-US-7/30/2026,53692Anis BENSAIDANIanis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comStéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesEuropean unionEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceBoth the Eurozone and the US grew 0.4% q/q in Q2 2026. For Europe, that is a welcome upside surprise: growth landed in line with expectations (France, Germany) or above them (Eurozone overall, Spain, Italy), even as the Middle East conflict delivered an energy-driven inflation shock. It confirms that European growth rests on foundations solid enough to absorb this kind of shock. Country-level detail was incomplete on the day, but manufacturing business sentiment held firm across the board in H1, underwritten by a set of drivers (AI, defence, electrification, aerospace). US growth, by contrast, undershot expectations. But it remained robust, powered by AI investment and accelerating household consumption. Both, however, drew in imports fast enough to weaken the headline growth figure. Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Q2-growth-advanced-economies-resilient-despite-multiple-shocks-7/23/2026,53678Stéphane COLLIACstephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comGuillaume DERRIENguillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comTarik RHARRABtarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyShocks are mounting, but growth is holding up. Although GDP figures for the Eurozone, France, Germany and the United States are due to be published on 30 July, our nowcasts indicate that growth returned to its trend rate in the second quarter. This rate is approximately 1% per annum in the Eurozone, France and Germany, and 2% per annum in the United States. In Q2, the Eurozone is expected to benefit from sustained growth in Germany, with investment plans gaining momentum, while France is expected to see a rebound in exports and residential construction after a poor start in Q1. In the United States, growth is expected to remain driven by non-residential investment and household consumption but will be held back by strong imports.Thu, 23 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/German-Investment-Plans-Reasons-Stay-Optimistic-6/25/2026,53593lucie.barette@bnpparibas.comGermanyDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthOver a year has passed since the German government announced substantial investment plans in defence and infrastructure. As we assess the situation in mid 2026, the implementation of these plans is progressing as we had anticipated. However, the current impact of these investments on growth is proving to be more subdued than expected (notably because a portion of the infrastructure funds has been used to finance government current expenditure). Nonetheless, the rebound in industrial orders is becoming evident, and the increase in intra European trade directed towards Germany indicates that a positive momentum is developing.Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Presidential-Election-Colombia-180-Degree-Turn-6/23/2026,53575lucas.ple@bnpparibas.comColombiaFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyIn Colombia, the right-wing populist candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won the second round of the presidential election on Sunday, 21 June, which achieved a record voter turnout of 63.4%. Preliminary estimates indicate that he secured 49.7% of the votes, narrowly surpassing left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda, who garnered 48.7% and represented a continuation of the policies of outgoing President Gustavo Petro (2022-2026). This election marks a significant shift to the right for the country, following the lead of Argentina and Chile, now governed by President Javier Milei (since December 2023) and President Antonio Kast (since March 2026), respectively. Meanwhile, Peru is still counting the votes from the second round of the presidential election and may soon follow suit, while Brazil is due to go to the polls in October.Tue, 23 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Reopening-Strait-Hormuz-market-short-term-relief-persisting-uncertainties-6/16/2026,53557pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe United States and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz to traffic. The oil markets reacted swiftly: Brent prices have fallen by around 7% since the announcement and by 32% from a peak reached on 29 April. However, they remain 27% above the average for January. Despite this optimism, a comeback to normality for the oil market is likely to take several weeks.Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/ECB-adjustment-necessarily-start-tightening-cycle-6/12/2026,53540guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comEurozoneMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationAs expected, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. This decision, taken unanimously, reflects the Governing Council's conviction that the persistence of the energy shock warrants a monetary policy response. The ECB revised its inflation outlook upward more significantly than its growth forecasts downward. It also updated its alternative scenarios relative to the central scenario (one more favorable, two adverse). Christine Lagarde emphasized that today's decision was "robust" across all scenarios.Fri, 12 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Four-Central-Banks-Active-Hold-4/30/2026,53455Anis BENSAIDANIanis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comIsabelle MATEOS Y LAGOisabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe central banks of the world’s leading advanced economies met this week, and all decided to leave their policy rates unchanged despite significantly higher inflation prints and outlooks. In the words of Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, these were “active holds”. They are not fully hawkish yet, but the hawks have made their dissent heard while still in the minority. But they are no longer in a pure passive “wait-and-see” mode. We expect hikes to come through in June, at least for the BoE, BoJ and ECB.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/France-factors-largely-account-zero-growth-Q1-4/30/2026,53453stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comFranceFinancial markets and investmentsBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyFrench growth was lower than expected in the first quarter, at 0% QoQ, mainly hampered by exceptional factors, mostly aeronautics deliveries and public investment. These factors explain why this figure is significantly lower than our nowcast and that of the Banque de France, which estimated that growth had reached 0.3% in Q1, based on production indicators in industry and services. This lead taken by production is reflected in a strongly positive contribution from changes in inventories (+0.8 percentage points), driven mainly by transport equipment.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016