RSS Publication : Eco InsightFlux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/India-middle-class-small-supplant-China-economic-role-10/26/2026,53879johanna.melka@bnpparibas.comIndiaEmerging EconomiesFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthIndia: A middle class too small to supplant China’s economic role At a time when Chinese consumption is slowing significantly, could India become a driver of global consumption? For now, this prospect presents considerable difficulties, with many obstacles to overcome. Despite dynamic growth and the Indian economy’s expanding share of global output (8.2% of worldwide GDP in 2025), the middle-class consumer population remains modest and is nowhere near the size of China’s. This is due to the concentration of employment in low-value-added and largely informal sectors. The few manufacturing sectors with high value-added and strong job potential — electrical equipment, electronics, automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals — continue to face constraints from an unfavourable business environment and a skills shortage that is holding back their move into premium market segments. Furthermore, the highest-paying service sector jobs, particularly in information technology, are now threatened by the rise of artificial intelligence. Without concrete measures, the “demographic window” — which is expected to remain favourable for another 15 to 25 years — could close before India establishes a solid industrial base and a sufficiently large middle class.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/lessons-learn-keep-European-industry-competitive-from-measures-taken-Germany-cost-electricity-continues-turn-screw-10/22/2026,53867Pascal DEVAUXpascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comMarianne MUELLERmarianne.mueller@bnpparibas.comGermanyEuropean unionFiscal policyDeveloped economiesInternational TradeInflationEnergyWhat lessons can we learn to keep European industry competitive from the measures taken by Germany, as the cost of electricity continues to turn the screw?The 2022 energy crisis clearly highlighted the issue of electricity prices in Europe – and, more broadly, the issue of energy prices. As a result, European manufacturers’ competitiveness has been severely undermined when compared with the United States and China. By reigniting tensions over electricity prices, the conflict that began in the Middle East in late February 2026 further underscores the continent’s vulnerability to fossil fuel imports, despite the expansion of renewable energy. Faced with an environment of potential sharp and sudden price rises, European governments do not have the same room for manoeuvre.Thu, 22 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Country-Risk-Profile-Vietnam-9/24/2026,53790christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comVietnamFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthCountry Risk Profile: VietnamThis month, we are launching Country Risk Profiles, an extension of EcoInsight dedicated to the risk profiles of a selection of countries. The first Country Risk Profile focuses on Vietnam, which continues to benefit from very strong economic growth despite external shocks. Thu, 24 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016