Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/United-States-drop-Treasuries-market-gears-6/18/2026,53561celine.choulet@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial markets and investmentsBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationThe US regulatory framework is becoming more favourable to intermediation conditions within the US Treasuries market. The easing of leverage requirements has enabled the largest banks, known as Global Systemically Important Banks, or G-SIBs, to fulfil their role as intermediaries during the first months of the year. The ongoing reassessment of the G-SIB capital surcharge calculation method could also benefit market liquidity. However, the capacity of large US banks to absorb federal debt is expected to remain limited.Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Middle-East-Conflict-Moderate-Impact-Advanced-Economies-High-Uncertainty-Remains-4/24/2026,53407United StatesGlobalUnited KingdomEurozoneDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe war in the Middle East has caused prices of several commodities to rise, in particular oil which has neared historic highs. Although conflict’s trajectory remains highly uncertain, weaker supply and demand constraints compared to 2022 should limit the upward pressure on inflation. Household consumption and sectors least able to pass on rising production costs to sales prices (primarily consumer goods) are likely to be hit hardest. The ultimate effect on GDP growth will depend on the duration and severity of the damage. According to our baseline scenario, a recession should be avoided. However, if the conflict were to escalate to the point of causing shortages (of fuel or inputs), its impact on growth and inflation could lead to such a recessionary outcome. High public debt levels and long-term interest rates limit governments’ room for manoeuvre, meaning any support measures are expected to be more limited than in 2022. If the conflict and its inflationary effects were to worsen, this reduced room for manoeuvre means that any additional response would have to be financed by equivalent savings. With weaker demand dynamics than in 2022, and less fiscal stimulus, central banks may face less pressure to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation. While the next move in interest rates is likely to be a hike in most cases, such action remains premature at this stage.Fri, 24 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/face-ageing-population-eurozone-economies-appear-most-vulnerable-4/10/2026,53348United StatesGlobalJapanEurozoneFiscal policyDeveloped economiesEmployment and labour market Economic growthMost developed countries are ageing rapidly. According to the United Nations population database, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the group of “more developed countries” is projected to rise from 21.5% in 2026 to 32.3% by 2100. There are however significant differences between countries. Such increases pose a threat to social security systems. Without any specific reforms, pension and healthcare spending will rise while contributions from the shrinking working-age population will decline. Which countries are financially most vulnerable to ageing? We analysed this question for 16 developed countries using five ratios in our ageing vulnerability index.Fri, 10 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Middle-East-Shockwaves-spreading-3/23/2026,53310GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe conflict in the Gulf has escalated in recent days, with an increase in strikes targeting oil and gas facilities (on both sides). The impact on energy prices has therefore intensified. A relatively rapid de-escalation of the conflict is unlikely, whilst there is a growing prospect of the conflict worsening along with its macroeconomic effects (higher inflation, lower growth). Central banks have taken note of this this week, but are waiting for greater clarity on how events will unfold before deciding how to respond. The markets, too, are taking a more cautious stance and anticipate that central bank will adopt more restrictive policies than previously expected for over the rest of the year. So do we.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016