Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/US-Midterms-cost-living-pivotal-issue-11/2/2026,53888anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyMonetary policyEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationReal estateConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyIn the United States, growth is holding up, unemployment remains low and consumer spending shows no sign of slowing. On paper, that should flatter the president’s party ahead of the midterms. Yet, Republicans could lose control of Congress. The rise in the cost of living, which weighs on households far more than macroeconomic aggregates suggest, could be one of the reasons. On top of persistent inflation, rekindled by the war in Iran, there is also a slowdown in wage growth and rising housing costs. The election could hinge on affordability, yet whichever party wins will lack the means to address it. A change in the majority in Congress will nonetheless have an impact on the country’s economy.Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-2-November-2026-11/2/2026,53889GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-2-November-2026-11/2/2026,53886tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets. A deep selloff in tech stocks entered a third consecutive week, taking the Nasdaq down by 10% since its last peak. Europe outperformed and bonds rallied on investor demand for safety. The bund OAT spread is back to 164, however.Mon, 02 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/China-resists-rebalancing-growth-model-10/26/2026,53877christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comChinaFiscal policyMonetary policyInternational TradeEmployment and labour market Economic growthReal estateConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceChina has never exported as much as it does now, and its trade surplus has never been higher. At the same time, its economic growth is slowing, held back by weak domestic demand. The imbalances in China’s growth model, and the external imbalances they give rise to, are therefore continuing to worsen. With Europe taking a tougher line and the United States, with which China shares nothing more than ‘strategic stability’, the standoff looks set to continue. However, the European Union and China would have a great deal to lose from a lasting deterioration in their relationship. It is in the interests of both parties to seek to restore the balance. To this end, it is important to understand Beijing’s objectives and the constraints facing China. Why does the country resist adjusting its growth model? Whilst exports are a vital asset for sustaining economic activity and asserting China’s technological and industrial power, this strategy also comes at a cost.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-26-October-2026-10/26/2026,53878GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-26-October-2026-10/26/2026,53875tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 26 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Postcard-from-Bangkok-IMF-meetings-take-resilience-granted-10/19/2026,53858isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceThe global economy’s unexpected resilience might have invited the self-congratulation that is a trademark of international official meetings. But policymakers gathered in Bangkok for the 2026 IMF Annual Meetings were wearily aware that “continued resilience cannot be taken for granted”, as noted in the prologue to the closing Chair’s Statement to the International Monetary and Financial Committee meeting. Growth forecasts remain in line with those made a year ago, when interest rates were much lower and no energy shock was in the cards, and even with those made in April, when a short shock was the base case. But what has sustained global growth against the odds so far could falter before the headwinds ease: oil buffers are being depleted; fiscal policy urgently needs to shift from support to deficit reduction as interest rates remain persistently higher; and the AI boom that has been a salvatory growth engine comes with serious questions about its sustainability and long-term economic effects. In addition to these global issues, the combination of fiscal challenges and elections in France and the US were seen as key risks, while some topics that had until recently been in the spotlight found themselves overshadowed. Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-19-October-2026-10/19/2026,53859GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-19-October-2026-10/19/2026,53856tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 19 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/sector-analysis-tells-about-Europe-recovery-years-Draghi-report-10/12/2026,53844jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comEuropean unionEurozoneFiscal policyInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceIn 2026, the European economy will not perform better than it did in 2025. At 1.4% (IMF estimate), its growth remains half as fast as in the United States. Still, there are more and more signs that Europe is regaining strength. The energy crisis, which has now been ongoing for eight months, would have caused it to halt in other times. Beneath an apparent sluggish activity, productivity is rebounding, while many sectors are picking up steam.Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-12-October-2026-10/12/2026,53845GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-12-October-2026-10/12/2026,53846tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 12 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/comes-China-Europe-should-focus-less-trade-deficits-investments-10/5/2026,53820guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChinaEuropean unionEurozoneInternational TradeConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceOn 8 and 9 October, the European Commissioner for Trade and Security, Maroš Šefcovic, will visit Beijing. The European Union’s trade deficit with China on manufactured goods stands at EUR 400 billion over a twelve-month period, driven by a surge in imports. That said, as a proportion of GDP, it is below its 2022 peak (2.1% compared with 2.5%). Furthermore, the aggregate figure masks contrasting realities: 1) with the exception of the automotive sector and Germany, exports are holding up, including service exports; 2) the loss of the Chinese market has been largely offset by third markets; and 3) the real challenge lies in the move upmarket of products imported from China. More than simply rebalancing the bilateral trade balance, the challenge for Europe is to defend its market more firmly and invest more at home to strengthen its competitiveness. Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-5-October-2026-10/5/2026,53827GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-5-October-2026-10/5/2026,53828tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 05 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Five-reasons-French-growth-should-pick-9/29/2026,53792stephane.colliac@bnpparibas.comFranceFiscal policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyIn 2026, the government once again failed to stabilise its public debt-to-GDP ratio due to a significant fiscal deficit and lower-than-usual growth. According to our analysis, this underperformance is due to exceptional factors. Structurally, France can still generate growth that will help the public debt ratio to stabilise, provided that its budget deficit is brought down to approximately 3% of GDP. To achieve this, it has significant strengths: 1/ Improved competitiveness in terms of labour and energy costs; 2/ Its services sector, notably through the development and use of new technologies (including AI); 3/ An industrial recovery driven by aeronautics, military spending and electrification, which calls for increased investment; 4/ Accelerating business creation that supports employment; and 5/ Its attractiveness to foreign investors. All of these structural drivers should enable French growth to rebound and join the expected acceleration in the Eurozone in 2027.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-28-September-2026-9/29/2026,53793GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-28-September-2026-9/29/2026,53794tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Tue, 29 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Argentina-versus-Turkiye-disinflation-strategies-compared-picture-rosy-Argentina-9/21/2026,53756francois.faure@bnpparibas.comArgentinaTürkiyeFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesMonetary policyBanking economicsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyAmong emerging markets, Argentina and Türkiye stand out for their particularly high consumer price inflation, currently standing at around 30% year-on-year in both countries. However, the monthly increase rate has fallen sharply – from around 8% in Argentina and 4% in Türkiye on average in 2023 to around 2% for both countries during the summer of 2026. The economic policy strategies adopted by governments and monetary authorities to bring inflation under control are very different. However, their consequences are too, and they are not positive for Argentina.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-21-September-2026-9/21/2026,53757GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-21-September-2026-9/21/2026,53758tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 21 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eight-Reasons-Should-Raise-Rates-9/14/2026,53743helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial regulationsMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe FOMC meeting on September 15–16 is expected to mark a turning point with the Fed’s first rate hike since May 2023. While there may have been economic reasons to hold off and maintain the status quo until now (some negative signals on the employment front and some encouraging ones on the inflation front), the conditions for a necessary recalibration now appear to be in place.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-14-September-2026-9/14/2026,53744GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-14-September-2026-9/14/2026,53741tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/India-Middle-Class-struggling-emerge-despite-record-Growth-9/7/2026,53737johanna.melka@bnpparibas.comIndiaEmployment and labour market Economic growthConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyDue to robust economic growth, India’s contribution to global GDP has increased by 1.8 times over the past twenty years, reaching 8.2% in 2025. However, this achievement conceals a significant issue: India is failing to develop a substantial, consumer-driven middle class. The underlying cause is the predominance of employment in low-value-added and largely informal sectors. The few high-value-added manufacturing sectors with strong job potential such as electrical equipment, electronics, automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, are hindered by an unfavourable business environment, while a skills shortage is obstructing their advancement up the value chain. Furthermore, the highest-paying service jobs, particularly in IT, are threatened by artificial intelligence.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-7-September-2026-9/7/2026,53738GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-7-September-2026-9/7/2026,53735tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Central-bank-independence-facing-biggest-stress-test-century-8/31/2026,53714isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial regulationsMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyCentral bank independence is not as hard-wired in modern institutions as they might appear to anyone born after the 1970s. That it went largely unchallenged in its first thirty years of history owes much to economic circumstances. But in today’s world of supply shock-driven inflation and large public debts, central banks face a much harder task. A series of controversial decisions since the global financial crisis, and years of above-target inflation leaves them more vulnerable than ever to political attacks on their independence. It is imperative to defend it, as there will be large costs to pay if it is lost.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-31-August-2026-8/31/2026,53716GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-31-August-2026-8/31/2026,53715tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-crisis-accelerating-carbon-transition-nuanced-response-advanced-economies-Part-2-7/27/2026,53688pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergySince the Trump administration returned to power, the already considerable disparity in energy policy between the United States and Europe has significantly increased. Admittedly, both are seeking energy sovereignty. But, while European policies remain focused on the low-carbon transition, the current US administration is focused on enhancing US dominance in the fossil fuel sector and rolling back measures that support the energy transition. At first glance, the energy crisis is exacerbating this divergence. The US has consolidated its position as the world’s leading exporter of hydrocarbons, and its strategic oil reserves have served as a buffer against the crisis. In contrast, the crisis in Europe has once again highlighted the cost of its dependence on hydrocarbon imports, which has given a significant boost to European policies for electrification and decarbonation. Nevertheless, the analysis of the US situation needs to be contextualised, as it is part of a different dynamic. While energy sovereignty is not a driving force behind the transition as it is in Europe, the sharp rise in demand associated with the development of artificial intelligence is, in the short term, conducive to the decarbonation of the energy mix.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53689GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53690tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets: Rates took off and tech slid further, leading Europe stock to outperform.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016