Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Under-Pressure-Test-Global-Stakes-6/15/2026,53552anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been challenged by the US administration, but it remains intact. As the Kevin Warsh era begins with the 16-17 June FOMC meeting, the simultaneous strength of inflation and the labour market set the stage – should it persist, as we anticipate – for monetary tightening to start by the end of the year. Yet the turbulence at the end of Jerome Powell’s term is a reminder that central bank independence is not a given. The stakes go beyond price stability alone and extend to the global financial architecture itself.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53555GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationArtificial intelligenceThe latest economic news.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53553tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEconomic policyEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Europe-Quiet-Metamorphosis-Powered-Five-Underappreciated-Boosters-6/8/2026,53529isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comEurozoneFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyInternational TradeEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEconomic policyOut of the spotlight, Europe is quietly preparing to emerge from its post-pandemic underwater years like a nymph turns into a stunning dragonfly. The turmoil of the last year and a half has brought about “Europe’s moment” in more ways than is being recognized. Europe isn’t just emerging as the alternative safe haven of choice. It can count on five powerful boosters: rebounding industrial strength, established services dominance, tech acceleration, a governance sea-change, and favorable geopolitical winds.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-8-June-2026-6/8/2026,53534GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-8-June-2026-6/8/2026,53530tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Competitive-banks-sovereign-Europe-6/1/2026,53518laurent.quignon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneBanking economicsEconomic policyEnergy transition, reindustrialisation, digital transition, innovation, defence: these strategic priorities require annual funding flows far greater than those historically seen in the European Union (EU). The consultation conducted by the European Commission on the competitiveness of the banking sector, which concluded on 19 April, highlights the need for a banking system that can finance these ambitions.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-1-June-2026-6/1/2026,53521GlobalFinancial markets and investmentsConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceThe latest economic news.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-1-June-2026-6/1/2026,53519tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Maintaining-potential-Eurozone-5/26/2026,53505jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comEurozoneEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyThe Eurozone is experiencing rapid population ageing, which, at first glance, does not inspire much optimism regarding its growth prospects. However, the decline in its working-age population can be countered by effective migration policies (as seen in Italy and Spain), as well as by an increase in labour force participation rates. Furthermore, much will depend on a recovery in productivity, which experienced a sudden stop following the Covid-19 pandemic.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-26-2026-5/26/2026,53507GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-26-2026-5/26/2026,53506tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/against-China-industrial-surge-Europe-strengths-seeking-strategy-5/18/2026,53484guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChinaEurozoneEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthEconomic policyChina’s rise is undermining major sectors of European industry. However, as the German economy illustrates most clearly, Europe is shifting, driven by investment cycles in defence, electrification and artificial intelligence. It is redirecting its exports and managing to maintain strong positions, particularly in high value-added services, where exports to China are trending upwards. Yet this repositioning remains fragile and could be hampered by the economic costs of the conflict in the Middle East. To consolidate its positions, Europe must accelerate the unification of its internal market and do more to strengthen its industrial policy. This is the aim of the ‘One Europe, One Market’ agenda.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-18-2026-5/18/2026,53482GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-18-2026-5/18/2026,53485tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/China-15th-Five-Year-Plan-prioritising-power-over-addressing-imbalances-5/11/2026,53474christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comChinaEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyThe 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines the roadmap for the Chinese economy from 2026 to 2030, does not signify a major shift in direction but rather continues on the path of the previous plan. It confirms, or rather reinforces, China’s development strategy based on asserting its export, industrial and technological power. Rather than focusing on rebalancing the growth model and boosting domestic consumption, Beijing is prioritising industry and innovation, seeking to increase its dominance in critical sectors and guarantee its ‘national security’. This approach should serve as a warning to the rest of the world: while it may alleviate inflationary pressures and ease the cost of the low-carbon transition, it also fuels significant competitive pressure and trade tensions, and introduces a risk of new dependencies on China in high-tech sectors.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-11-2026-5/11/2026,53475GlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerThe latest economic news.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-11-2026-5/11/2026,53472tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Four-central-banks-just-many-shades-status-5/5/2026,53464helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyUnsurprisingly, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep their policy rates unchanged at their meetings in April. However, beneath this shared decision lie subtle differences that enable us to categorize each central bank based on how ready they are for a rate hike in the near future. The ECB ranks first, followed closely by the BoJ and the BoE, with the Fed remaining apart. Although the current energy shock is a global phenomenon and of a stagflationary nature (leading to lower growth and higher inflation), the dilemma varies for each central bank. The United States is experiencing higher inflation but it is benefiting from higher growth too, while economic activity is expected to be more adversely affected in other countries. Assuming a gradual normalization of the situation in the Middle East, the reaction function of each central bank suggests that we can expect a 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike in June from the ECB, the BoE, and the BoJ, while the Fed is likely to maintain its current stance (albeit with a low but growing risk of aligning with this trend).Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-4-2026-5/5/2026,53463GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Focus-Impact-Eurozone-activity-inflation-Middle-East-April-2026-data-5/5/2026,53462helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneFiscal policyDeveloped economiesInflationThe energy-led rise in inflation remains contained. But pressures are building and consumer and services confidence is suffering.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-4-2026-5/5/2026,53461tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-four-keys-Central-Europe-resilience-4/27/2026,53444cynthia.kalasopatanantoine@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe economies of Central Europe have weathered several shocks since 2020, demonstrating remarkable resilience. In 2025, the US tariff shock had a limited impact on economic activity. In fact, regional growth even accelerated, driven by strong consumer spending. In 2026, the war in the Middle East is once again putting the region to the test, while its fiscal flexibility has been considerably reduced. Uncertainties over the duration of the war are casting a shadow over the economic outlook. In any case, Central Europe can count on four key strengths to weather this shock. Firstly, its direct exposure to risks associated with disruptions in energy and industrial material supplies remains limited. Secondly, and most importantly, the European ‘Recovery and Resilience’ funds, a significant portion of which will be deployed in 2026, offer significant support. Furthermore, monetary authorities still have some room for manoeuvre and, finally, external liquidity positions, alongside public accounts, are fairly robust. Romania appears to be the most exposed country in the region, yet it is demonstrating resilience. Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-27-April-2026-4/27/2026,53442GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-27-April-2026-4/27/2026,53443tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/IMF-Spring-Meetings-Coming-terms-multiple-regime-changes-Realism-Resilience-Rewiring-4/20/2026,53379isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceDespite the war and energy shocks unfolding in parallel to the Meetings, finance officials, central bankers and other delegates took the situation with a poise that contrasted with the sense of shock that followed Liberation Day. Unable to predict with any degree of confidence how the war would evolve, and hence how large the economic damage would be, delegates focused more than usual on what lies beyond the near-term outlook: regime changes in geopolitics, economics and markets; how to explain and preserve recent resilience; and the multiple ongoing re-wirings of the fabric of the global economy and financial markets. Here are some personal key takeaways.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-20-April-2026-4/20/2026,53380GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyThe latest economic news.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-20-April-2026-4/20/2026,53381tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/World-Economy-Take-Stock-Midst-Unfolding-Chaos-4/13/2026,53354isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comGlobalFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceThis week, Washington DC will host two gatherings that should be important in their own right, and yet are unlikely to be: one is the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB), which brings into town thousands of top finance and central banking officials as well as private sector delegates from the financial sector and civil society; the other is the peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. The former is traditionally an opportunity to take stock and send a combination of reassuring messages to markets and stern admonitions to policymakers. The latter could have been history-making just for taking place. Yet both are certain to be overshadowed by developments in the Persian Gulf and US-Iran talks. Unable to pin down the near-term outlook, delegates are likely to set their sight, more than usual, on longer-fused developments: inexorably rising public debt burdens, global economic governance in the post US-centric age, AI’s economic and geopolitical impacts,and the implications of the rise of private markets and digital finance. Here are five key questions I will seek to get greater clarity on.Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-13-April-2026-4/13/2026,53355GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-13-April-2026-4/13/2026,53356tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Refined-petroleum-products-should-worried-about-shortages-Europe-4/7/2026,53342pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comGlobalEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyEconomic policyThe war in the Middle East has caused significant disruptions in the market for refined petroleum products, affecting not only Asia but also Europe. For the time being, the situation in Europe remains under control, largely thanks to stock levels that provide visibility for around one month. Nevertheless, Europe’s dual reliance on suppliers in the Gulf and Asia calls for caution. Supply status in the European market will be influenced by geopolitical developments in the Gulf and whether Asian producers choose to prioritise supplying their domestic markets. Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-7-April-2026-4/7/2026,53345GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Focus-Eurozone-4/7/2026,53343helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyTwo measures of inflation (including and excluding energy) and six survey data points to track the impact of the latest energy shock—caused by the war in the Middle East—on economic activity and prices in the euro area. This Focus also highlights how closely the current situation mirrors that of 2022, when the conflict in Ukraine began.Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-7-April-2026-4/7/2026,53341tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Gulf-Financial-Markets-Sleepwalking-3/30/2026,53330isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesGlobalDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthEnergyAsset prices have been moving in unusual ways since the onset of the Gulf War (no safe havens, limited dollar rally and de-risking). Do financial markets know something we don’t, has something fundamentally changed in the way asset prices reflect economic expectations, or are they simply malfunctioning and about to swing wildly as things normalise? Unfortunately, it is impossible to know for sure, and what’s more, these hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. So far, markets appear to expect an inflation spike, met with a firm central response, with limited damage to growth, and a relatively swift return of inflation to target range. That may turn out to be correct. But far worse outcomes are also very plausible. Not seeing them priced in to a greater degree helps limit damage to growth in the near term, but could cause trouble if this changes abruptly.Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-30-March-2026-3/30/2026,53332GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-30-March-2026-3/30/2026,53331tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/16-21-near-universal-central-banks-status-today-about-tomorrow-3/23/2026,53317helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe week of 16–20 March was particularly busy on the monetary policy front. No fewer than 21 central banks met against the backdrop of a common exogenous factor: the conflict in the Middle East that broke out in late February 2026. Prior to the onset of the conflict, 12 to 15 of these banks were either in an easing cycle or preparing to implement rate cuts. Ultimately, regarding policy rates, sixteen banks maintained the status quo, two opted for an increase and three for a cut. We present an overview of the context and the terms of the debate around several questions: 1/ What impact has the war in the Middle East had on these monetary policy decisions (how has the outcome shifted from what was expected before the offensive began to the current situation)?; 2/ How concerned are central banks about current developments and the risk of stagflation (are they prepared to change course, and in what direction)?Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-23-March-2026-3/23/2026,53315GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-23-March-2026-3/23/2026,53316tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Emerging-developing-countries-will-weather-energy-shock-3/16/2026,53303francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesFinancial markets and investmentsFinancial regulationsMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyAs in 2022, the energy shock will affect emerging and developing economies. Today, as in the past, this shock is a negative-sum game between importing and exporting countries. Furthermore, although this is basically a supply shock, central banks in emerging economies may tighten their policies if they need to counter downward pressure on exchange rates, in order to prevent inflation from rising too sharply. However, compared to 2022, there are mitigating factors: 1/ the absence of a shock to agricultural commodity prices so far; 2/ AI, which is an external growth driver for Asian countries in particular; and 3/ the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance than in 2022 in response to the anticipated rise in inflation. In terms of the solvency and liquidity of public finances and external accounts, emerging economies are no more vulnerable than in 2022. However, some developing countries still face vulnerabilities. The impact on energy balances is putting pressure on interest rates and exchange rates, although this pressure remains limited for now. Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-16-March-2026-3/16/2026,53305GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-16-March-2026-3/16/2026,53304tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100© BNP Paribas - 2016