Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Eight-Reasons-Should-Raise-Rates-9/14/2026,53743helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial regulationsMonetary policyBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe FOMC meeting on September 15–16 is expected to mark a turning point with the Fed’s first rate hike since May 2023. While there may have been economic reasons to hold off and maintain the status quo until now (some negative signals on the employment front and some encouraging ones on the inflation front), the conditions for a necessary recalibration now appear to be in place.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-14-September-2026-9/14/2026,53744GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-14-September-2026-9/14/2026,53741tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/India-Middle-Class-struggling-emerge-despite-record-Growth-9/7/2026,53737johanna.melka@bnpparibas.comIndiaEmployment and labour market Economic growthConsumption and purchasing powerEconomic policyDue to robust economic growth, India’s contribution to global GDP has increased by 1.8 times over the past twenty years, reaching 8.2% in 2025. However, this achievement conceals a significant issue: India is failing to develop a substantial, consumer-driven middle class. The underlying cause is the predominance of employment in low-value-added and largely informal sectors. The few high-value-added manufacturing sectors with strong job potential such as electrical equipment, electronics, automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, are hindered by an unfavourable business environment, while a skills shortage is obstructing their advancement up the value chain. Furthermore, the highest-paying service jobs, particularly in IT, are threatened by artificial intelligence.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-7-September-2026-9/7/2026,53738GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-7-September-2026-9/7/2026,53735tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Central-bank-independence-facing-biggest-stress-test-century-8/31/2026,53714isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFinancial regulationsMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyCentral bank independence is not as hard-wired in modern institutions as they might appear to anyone born after the 1970s. That it went largely unchallenged in its first thirty years of history owes much to economic circumstances. But in today’s world of supply shock-driven inflation and large public debts, central banks face a much harder task. A series of controversial decisions since the global financial crisis, and years of above-target inflation leaves them more vulnerable than ever to political attacks on their independence. It is imperative to defend it, as there will be large costs to pay if it is lost.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-31-August-2026-8/31/2026,53716GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-31-August-2026-8/31/2026,53715tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-crisis-accelerating-carbon-transition-nuanced-response-advanced-economies-Part-2-7/27/2026,53688pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergySince the Trump administration returned to power, the already considerable disparity in energy policy between the United States and Europe has significantly increased. Admittedly, both are seeking energy sovereignty. But, while European policies remain focused on the low-carbon transition, the current US administration is focused on enhancing US dominance in the fossil fuel sector and rolling back measures that support the energy transition. At first glance, the energy crisis is exacerbating this divergence. The US has consolidated its position as the world’s leading exporter of hydrocarbons, and its strategic oil reserves have served as a buffer against the crisis. In contrast, the crisis in Europe has once again highlighted the cost of its dependence on hydrocarbon imports, which has given a significant boost to European policies for electrification and decarbonation. Nevertheless, the analysis of the US situation needs to be contextualised, as it is part of a different dynamic. While energy sovereignty is not a driving force behind the transition as it is in Europe, the sharp rise in demand associated with the development of artificial intelligence is, in the short term, conducive to the decarbonation of the energy mix.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53689GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53690tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets: Rates took off and tech slid further, leading Europe stock to outperform.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-crisis-accelerating-carbon-transition-Part-emerging-economies-7/20/2026,53669pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyA few months after the onset of a new global energy crisis, one might wonder about its implications for the low-carbon transition in emerging countries. The answer is not straightforward, as geopolitical uncertainties and the low-carbon transition are progressing according to different timelines, at least in part. The energy shock triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz calls for immediate action to secure hydrocarbon supplies, such as using strategic reserves. Conversely, the transition to low-carbon energy is a long-term process. However, the current circumstances are unusual: the low-carbon transition was initiated several years ago, and the Hormuz crisis marks the second major energy crisis in four years.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-20-July-2026-7/20/2026,53670GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic newsMon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-20-July-2026-7/20/2026,53671tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Advanced-economies-emerging-economies-does-distinction-still-hold-meaning-which-countries-7/13/2026,53629francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesEconomic growthEconomic policyThe concept of ‘emerging economies’ as opposed to advanced economies is multifaceted and often poorly defined. The simplest and most commonly used indicator is GDP per capita, on which the classification used by international financial institutions (IFIs) is largely based. However, if we broaden the range of indicators by structuring them according to an analysis of economic potential or country risk: 1/ China still exhibits characteristics of an emerging economy, yet is no longer classified as such given its status as an economic superpower; 2/ The distinction between advanced countries and those that have become advanced but remain classified as emerging markets by economic research departments and, in some cases, by IFIs, is no longer justified; 3/ It remains relevant for other emerging markets, particularly commodity-exporting countries, including the Gulf states.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-13-July-2026-7/13/2026,53623GlobalFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-13-July-2026-7/13/2026,53625tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-ECB-done-rate-hikes-7/6/2026,53616guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationGathered in Sintra, Portugal, from 29 June to 1st July, the members of the ECB Governing Council adopted a notably cautious stance, just three weeks after raising key interest rates. This unanimous decision was in response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Since then, energy prices have fallen sharply, and the inflation and survey data from June have shown positive trends. However, the indirect effects of the energy shock are still difficult to assess fully. We maintain our scenario of an additional ECB rate hike in September, despite the easing of inflation risks, which makes such a move less likely.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-6-July-2026-7/6/2026,53614GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-6-July-2026-7/6/2026,53612tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/European-productivity-decline-into-perspective-prospects-improvement-6/29/2026,53605jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comEuropean unionDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthIn the European Union (EU), the post-Covid period was marked by a significant slowdown in productivity, which contrasts with the dynamic trend observed in the United States. However, there are reasons to put Europe's decline into perspective. Over a twenty-year period, real GDP per hour worked has grown more in the EU-27 than in Japan or the United Kingdom. The lag behind the United States is not continuous, but is linked to periods of crisis during which the US federal government intervened on a massive scale to support private-sector companies. The result is a public finance situation which appears much more favourable in Europe, allowing it to address a challenging future.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-29-June-2026-6/29/2026,53602GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-29-June-2026-6/29/2026,53603tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Iran-Memorandum-Understanding-extent-improved-economic-outlook-6/22/2026,53571helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran certainly provides a degree of relief, but it remains shrouded in too much uncertainty to fundamentally change the situation—at least in the short term. The recent fall in oil prices is good news, but it needs to be maintained over the long term, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces numerous constraints. A return to normal will take time. This headwind to growth is diminishing, which reinforces our resilience scenario. Inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time yet due to the lagged effects of tensions on oil and other commodity prices. The environment therefore remains inflationary, albeit to a lesser extent than before the MoU, but still enough to justify a more restrictive stance from central banks.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-22-June-2026-6/22/2026,53567GlobalFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-22-June-2026-6/22/2026,53569tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Under-Pressure-Test-Global-Stakes-6/15/2026,53552anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been challenged by the US administration, but it remains intact. As the Kevin Warsh era begins with the 16-17 June FOMC meeting, the simultaneous strength of inflation and the labour market set the stage – should it persist, as we anticipate – for monetary tightening to start by the end of the year. Yet the turbulence at the end of Jerome Powell’s term is a reminder that central bank independence is not a given. The stakes go beyond price stability alone and extend to the global financial architecture itself.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53555GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationArtificial intelligenceThe latest economic news.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53553tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEconomic policyEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016