Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-crisis-accelerating-carbon-transition-nuanced-response-advanced-economies-Part-2-7/27/2026,53688pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergySince the Trump administration returned to power, the already considerable disparity in energy policy between the United States and Europe has significantly increased. Admittedly, both are seeking energy sovereignty. But, while European policies remain focused on the low-carbon transition, the current US administration is focused on enhancing US dominance in the fossil fuel sector and rolling back measures that support the energy transition. At first glance, the energy crisis is exacerbating this divergence. The US has consolidated its position as the world’s leading exporter of hydrocarbons, and its strategic oil reserves have served as a buffer against the crisis. In contrast, the crisis in Europe has once again highlighted the cost of its dependence on hydrocarbon imports, which has given a significant boost to European policies for electrification and decarbonation. Nevertheless, the analysis of the US situation needs to be contextualised, as it is part of a different dynamic. While energy sovereignty is not a driving force behind the transition as it is in Europe, the sharp rise in demand associated with the development of artificial intelligence is, in the short term, conducive to the decarbonation of the energy mix.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53689GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-27-July-2026-7/27/2026,53690tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets: Rates took off and tech slid further, leading Europe stock to outperform.Mon, 27 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/energy-crisis-accelerating-carbon-transition-Part-emerging-economies-7/20/2026,53669pascal.devaux@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEconomic growthInflationEnergyA few months after the onset of a new global energy crisis, one might wonder about its implications for the low-carbon transition in emerging countries. The answer is not straightforward, as geopolitical uncertainties and the low-carbon transition are progressing according to different timelines, at least in part. The energy shock triggered by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz calls for immediate action to secure hydrocarbon supplies, such as using strategic reserves. Conversely, the transition to low-carbon energy is a long-term process. However, the current circumstances are unusual: the low-carbon transition was initiated several years ago, and the Hormuz crisis marks the second major energy crisis in four years.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-20-July-2026-7/20/2026,53670GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic newsMon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-20-July-2026-7/20/2026,53671tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 20 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Advanced-economies-emerging-economies-does-distinction-still-hold-meaning-which-countries-7/13/2026,53629francois.faure@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesEconomic growthEconomic policyThe concept of ‘emerging economies’ as opposed to advanced economies is multifaceted and often poorly defined. The simplest and most commonly used indicator is GDP per capita, on which the classification used by international financial institutions (IFIs) is largely based. However, if we broaden the range of indicators by structuring them according to an analysis of economic potential or country risk: 1/ China still exhibits characteristics of an emerging economy, yet is no longer classified as such given its status as an economic superpower; 2/ The distinction between advanced countries and those that have become advanced but remain classified as emerging markets by economic research departments and, in some cases, by IFIs, is no longer justified; 3/ It remains relevant for other emerging markets, particularly commodity-exporting countries, including the Gulf states.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-13-July-2026-7/13/2026,53623GlobalFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-13-July-2026-7/13/2026,53625tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 13 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-ECB-done-rate-hikes-7/6/2026,53616guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsInternational TradeBanking economicsEconomic growthInflationGathered in Sintra, Portugal, from 29 June to 1st July, the members of the ECB Governing Council adopted a notably cautious stance, just three weeks after raising key interest rates. This unanimous decision was in response to the energy shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. Since then, energy prices have fallen sharply, and the inflation and survey data from June have shown positive trends. However, the indirect effects of the energy shock are still difficult to assess fully. We maintain our scenario of an additional ECB rate hike in September, despite the easing of inflation risks, which makes such a move less likely.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-6-July-2026-7/6/2026,53614GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-6-July-2026-7/6/2026,53612tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 06 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/European-productivity-decline-into-perspective-prospects-improvement-6/29/2026,53605jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comEuropean unionDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthIn the European Union (EU), the post-Covid period was marked by a significant slowdown in productivity, which contrasts with the dynamic trend observed in the United States. However, there are reasons to put Europe's decline into perspective. Over a twenty-year period, real GDP per hour worked has grown more in the EU-27 than in Japan or the United Kingdom. The lag behind the United States is not continuous, but is linked to periods of crisis during which the US federal government intervened on a massive scale to support private-sector companies. The result is a public finance situation which appears much more favourable in Europe, allowing it to address a challenging future.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-29-June-2026-6/29/2026,53602GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-29-June-2026-6/29/2026,53603tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 29 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Iran-Memorandum-Understanding-extent-improved-economic-outlook-6/22/2026,53571helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalInternational TradeInflationEnergyThe memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran certainly provides a degree of relief, but it remains shrouded in too much uncertainty to fundamentally change the situation—at least in the short term. The recent fall in oil prices is good news, but it needs to be maintained over the long term, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces numerous constraints. A return to normal will take time. This headwind to growth is diminishing, which reinforces our resilience scenario. Inflation is likely to remain elevated for some time yet due to the lagged effects of tensions on oil and other commodity prices. The environment therefore remains inflationary, albeit to a lesser extent than before the MoU, but still enough to justify a more restrictive stance from central banks.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-22-June-2026-6/22/2026,53567GlobalFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-22-June-2026-6/22/2026,53569tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Under-Pressure-Test-Global-Stakes-6/15/2026,53552anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesFiscal policyMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyThe independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been challenged by the US administration, but it remains intact. As the Kevin Warsh era begins with the 16-17 June FOMC meeting, the simultaneous strength of inflation and the labour market set the stage – should it persist, as we anticipate – for monetary tightening to start by the end of the year. Yet the turbulence at the end of Jerome Powell’s term is a reminder that central bank independence is not a given. The stakes go beyond price stability alone and extend to the global financial architecture itself.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53555GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationArtificial intelligenceThe latest economic news.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-15-June-2026-6/15/2026,53553tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEconomic policyEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 15 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Europe-Quiet-Metamorphosis-Powered-Five-Underappreciated-Boosters-6/8/2026,53529isabelle.mateosylago@bnpparibas.comEurozoneFiscal policyFinancial markets and investmentsMonetary policyInternational TradeEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEconomic policyOut of the spotlight, Europe is quietly preparing to emerge from its post-pandemic underwater years like a nymph turns into a stunning dragonfly. The turmoil of the last year and a half has brought about “Europe’s moment” in more ways than is being recognized. Europe isn’t just emerging as the alternative safe haven of choice. It can count on five powerful boosters: rebounding industrial strength, established services dominance, tech acceleration, a governance sea-change, and favorable geopolitical winds.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-8-June-2026-6/8/2026,53534GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-8-June-2026-6/8/2026,53530tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Competitive-banks-sovereign-Europe-6/1/2026,53518laurent.quignon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneBanking economicsEconomic policyEnergy transition, reindustrialisation, digital transition, innovation, defence: these strategic priorities require annual funding flows far greater than those historically seen in the European Union (EU). The consultation conducted by the European Commission on the competitiveness of the banking sector, which concluded on 19 April, highlights the need for a banking system that can finance these ambitions.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-1-June-2026-6/1/2026,53521GlobalFinancial markets and investmentsConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyEconomic policyArtificial intelligenceThe latest economic news.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-1-June-2026-6/1/2026,53519tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 01 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Maintaining-potential-Eurozone-5/26/2026,53505jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comEurozoneEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationEnergyEconomic policyThe Eurozone is experiencing rapid population ageing, which, at first glance, does not inspire much optimism regarding its growth prospects. However, the decline in its working-age population can be countered by effective migration policies (as seen in Italy and Spain), as well as by an increase in labour force participation rates. Furthermore, much will depend on a recovery in productivity, which experienced a sudden stop following the Covid-19 pandemic.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-26-2026-5/26/2026,53507GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-26-2026-5/26/2026,53506tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Tue, 26 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/against-China-industrial-surge-Europe-strengths-seeking-strategy-5/18/2026,53484guillaume.a.derrien@bnpparibas.comChinaEurozoneEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesInternational TradeEconomic growthEconomic policyChina’s rise is undermining major sectors of European industry. However, as the German economy illustrates most clearly, Europe is shifting, driven by investment cycles in defence, electrification and artificial intelligence. It is redirecting its exports and managing to maintain strong positions, particularly in high value-added services, where exports to China are trending upwards. Yet this repositioning remains fragile and could be hampered by the economic costs of the conflict in the Middle East. To consolidate its positions, Europe must accelerate the unification of its internal market and do more to strengthen its industrial policy. This is the aim of the ‘One Europe, One Market’ agenda.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-18-2026-5/18/2026,53482GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-18-2026-5/18/2026,53485tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 18 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/China-15th-Five-Year-Plan-prioritising-power-over-addressing-imbalances-5/11/2026,53474christine.peltier@bnpparibas.comChinaEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeEnergyEconomic policyThe 15th Five-Year Plan, which outlines the roadmap for the Chinese economy from 2026 to 2030, does not signify a major shift in direction but rather continues on the path of the previous plan. It confirms, or rather reinforces, China’s development strategy based on asserting its export, industrial and technological power. Rather than focusing on rebalancing the growth model and boosting domestic consumption, Beijing is prioritising industry and innovation, seeking to increase its dominance in critical sectors and guarantee its ‘national security’. This approach should serve as a warning to the rest of the world: while it may alleviate inflationary pressures and ease the cost of the low-carbon transition, it also fuels significant competitive pressure and trade tensions, and introduces a risk of new dependencies on China in high-tech sectors.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-11-2026-5/11/2026,53475GlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEmployment and labour market Economic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerThe latest economic news.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-11-2026-5/11/2026,53472tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Mon, 11 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Four-central-banks-just-many-shades-status-5/5/2026,53464helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comGlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyUnsurprisingly, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) opted to keep their policy rates unchanged at their meetings in April. However, beneath this shared decision lie subtle differences that enable us to categorize each central bank based on how ready they are for a rate hike in the near future. The ECB ranks first, followed closely by the BoJ and the BoE, with the Fed remaining apart. Although the current energy shock is a global phenomenon and of a stagflationary nature (leading to lower growth and higher inflation), the dilemma varies for each central bank. The United States is experiencing higher inflation but it is benefiting from higher growth too, while economic activity is expected to be more adversely affected in other countries. Assuming a gradual normalization of the situation in the Middle East, the reaction function of each central bank suggests that we can expect a 25-basis-point (bp) rate hike in June from the ECB, the BoE, and the BoJ, while the Fed is likely to maintain its current stance (albeit with a low but growing risk of aligning with this trend).Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-4-2026-5/5/2026,53463GlobalMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationThe latest economic news.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Focus-Impact-Eurozone-activity-inflation-Middle-East-April-2026-data-5/5/2026,53462helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comEurozoneFiscal policyDeveloped economiesInflationThe energy-led rise in inflation remains contained. But pressures are building and consumer and services confidence is suffering.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-4-2026-5/5/2026,53461tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEquity indices, currencies, commodities, bond markets.Tue, 05 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Energy-shock-four-keys-Central-Europe-resilience-4/27/2026,53444cynthia.kalasopatanantoine@bnpparibas.comEmerging CountriesEmerging EconomiesEconomic growthInflationEnergyThe economies of Central Europe have weathered several shocks since 2020, demonstrating remarkable resilience. In 2025, the US tariff shock had a limited impact on economic activity. In fact, regional growth even accelerated, driven by strong consumer spending. In 2026, the war in the Middle East is once again putting the region to the test, while its fiscal flexibility has been considerably reduced. Uncertainties over the duration of the war are casting a shadow over the economic outlook. In any case, Central Europe can count on four key strengths to weather this shock. Firstly, its direct exposure to risks associated with disruptions in energy and industrial material supplies remains limited. Secondly, and most importantly, the European ‘Recovery and Resilience’ funds, a significant portion of which will be deployed in 2026, offer significant support. Furthermore, monetary authorities still have some room for manoeuvre and, finally, external liquidity positions, alongside public accounts, are fairly robust. Romania appears to be the most exposed country in the region, yet it is demonstrating resilience. Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/EcoNews-27-April-2026-4/27/2026,53442GlobalEmerging EconomiesDeveloped economiesEconomic growthInflationConsumption and purchasing powerEnergyThe latest economic news.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Markets-Overview-27-April-2026-4/27/2026,53443tarik.rharrab@bnpparibas.comGlobalFinancial markets and investmentsEconomic growthInflationEconomic policyEquity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016