Flux Publicationshttps://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Final-months-RRF-Which-Central-European-countries-expecting-biggest-inflows-growth-impact-7/30/2026,c45171cynthia.kalasopatanantoine@bnpparibas.comFiscal policyEmerging EconomiesThe Recovery and Resilience Facility, or the so-called RRF, has been drawing heightened attention lately as two deadlines are looming: August 2026 for reform milestones and December 2026 to secure all disbursements. The stakes are high. Countries failing to fulfill the EU’s reform milestones risk losing entitled funds. Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/less-growth-inflation-first-half-2026-growth-less-inflation-second-7/9/2026,c45128helene.baudchon@bnpparibas.comMonetary policyEconomic growthInflationShock and resilience: These are, once again, the key words of the first half of 2026. In 2025, the global economy had already faced the US tariff shock (less severe than initially feared) and demonstrated remarkable resilience. Today, faced with the new energy shock caused by the conflict in Iran, how resilient is the global economy?Thu, 09 Jul 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Bank-Japan-Difficult-Normalization-6/30/2026,c45080anis.bensaidani@bnpparibas.comJapanMonetary policyInflationThe Bank of Japan delivered its first rate hike of 2026 at its June meeting, raising the policy rate by 25bps to 1.0%, its highest level since 1995. This marks a further step in the cautious “adjustment of the degree of monetary accommodation”, as framed by the BoJ. Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Germany-Despite-shocks-growth-picking-6/4/2026,c44999lucie.barette@bnpparibas.comGermanyEconomic growthDespite the energy shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East and intensifying competition from China, Germany is set to accelerate its growth in 2026 and 2027, driven by massive investment efforts. Yet its reliance on traditional industries and high exposure to China pose structural challenges that will require heightened innovation efforts.Thu, 04 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Although-Eurozone-ageing-doomed-decline-5/28/2026,c44983jean-luc.proutat@bnpparibas.comDeveloped economiesEmployment and labour market Economic growthIt’s a major trend, one that can be observed all over the world: since the early 1970s, the average number of children per woman, the ‘fertility rate’, has been falling almost continuously.Thu, 28 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/eased-capital-rules-push-US-banks-back-into-mortgage-lending-banks-shadow-5/7/2026,c44946celine.choulet@bnpparibas.comUnited StatesBanking economicsUS banking regulators have recently launched a sweeping overhaul of capital requirements. Their primary goal is to restore banks to the forefront of mortgage origination. Yet it seems unlikely that the new credit-risk calibration, taken alone, will reshape the market. The widespread use of loan securitization and leverage constraints could limit its impact. By reducing risk weights on credit lines extended to non-bank mortgage lenders, the reform could even undermine its intended purpose—potentially encouraging banks to remain in the shadow of non-banks.Thu, 07 May 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Turkiye-export-competitiveness-under-pressure-4/28/2026,c44916francois.faure@bnpparibas.comTürkiyeEmerging EconomiesInternational TradeDue to the military interventions by the United States and Israel in Iran and Lebanon, emerging economies are experiencing financial strains: rising risk premiums, depreciation of their currencies against the dollar, and a decline in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. As is often the case, Türkiye is once again in the spotlight due to the sharp fall in the reserves of its central bank. Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0200© BNP Paribas - 2016