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EcoTV – June 2020  6/17/2020

Eco TV – April 2020  4/24/2020

EcoTV – March 2020  3/10/2020

EcoTV – February 2020  2/11/2020

Eco TV - January 2020  1/10/2020

Eco TV – December 2019  12/12/2019

EcoTV - November 2019  11/12/2019

Eco TV: October 2019  10/7/2019

Eco TV: September 2019  9/9/2019

EcoTV - July-August 2019  7/11/2019

see also EcoTV Week

On the Same Theme

A V-shaped recovery for France? Not so fast 7/3/2020
Looking at France’s economic situation and prospects, there are grounds for both optimism and pessimism
Much brighter skies in June 6/26/2020
While the economic horizon cleared up a bit in May, the improvement was much bigger in June. Given its construction, our Pulse does not yet show any traces of this rebound, which is just as remarkable as the preceding plunge [...]
6/16/2020
France: slightly brighter skies in May 5/29/2020
According to May business confidence surveys, France’s economic horizon has cleared up a bit.
The sharp rise in household inflation expectations in April, a signal to be put into perspective 5/6/2020
The sharp rise in household inflation expectations is one of the striking results of the April 2020 INSEE consumer confidence survey. This increase goes the opposite way of the fall in the balance of opinion on price trends over the past 12 months as well as in actual inflation. This large divergence is noteworthy in view of the usual relative proximity of the three indicators. This rise in expected inflation echoes the French people’s feeling, conveyed in the media, that significant price increases have occurred since the lockdown. This is probably the consequence of the composition effect of consumption baskets and not the warning sign of a widespread and substantial pick-up in prices in the making. The more regularly a product is consumed, the stronger the sensitivity to a rise in its price. And this sensitivity can be wrongly extrapolated to all prices. Currently, expenses are mainly incurred on food for which high price increases have precisely been reported as a result of the law of supply and demand. By contrast, because of the lower frequency of refueling, household inflation expectations do not reflect the plunge in oil prices.  
France: shocking figures reveal the extent of the shock 4/30/2020
According to preliminary INSEE estimates, French GDP contracted 5.8% in first-quarter 2020. This contraction gives us a first glimpse of the magnitude of the recessionary shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new government-guaranteed loan in France 4/24/2020
French banks may grant up to EUR 300 billion of government-guaranted loans (‘Prêts garantis par l’Etat’, or PGE) until December 31, 2020. This instrument, which is of an unprecedented scale, is dedicated to helping companies overcome cash-flow difficulties resulting from the coronavirus crisis.
France: historic recession 4/10/2020
We are now expecting a massive recessive shock for the French economy due to the covid-19 pandemic. This pandemic is a huge adverse shock, what we call a 'black swan' event, that is to say an unpredictable event, very unlikely, but with a huge cost.
Massive recessionary shock 4/8/2020
Clearly, 2020 will not be another year of slow but resilient growth as we were forecasting just last quarter. We must now expect a massive recessionary shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. To date, the INSEE estimates the instantaneous loss of economic activity linked directly to confinement measures at 35%, which is equivalent to slashing off 3 points of annual GDP per month of confinement. In March, the business climate was in free fall, which gives us a first glimpse of its scope. A full arsenal of measures have been deployed to mitigate the shock as best possible. According to our estimates, French GDP could contract by 3.1% in 2020, more than the 2.8% decline reported in 2009, before rebounding by 5.4% in 2021. These forecasts are highly uncertain, with risks on the downside.
Business confidence in free fall in March 3/27/2020
Judging by the indicators on our radar screen, the picture for the French economy is deteriorating, albeit, it should be remembered, from a relatively strong position...

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