Eco Infographics – Charts And Infographics – Economic Research

Eco Infographics

SUSTAINABLE GLOBALISATION Published on 19 Feb 2019 by William DE VIJLDER

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Globalisation has traditionally been considered as an irreversible development underpinned by four key drivers: choices by households and companies; technology, which meant that distance became less and less a hurdle in optimising the business of a company; financial markets, with the opening up of capital accounts; pro-free trade government policies. It has become under pressure in recent years (not everybody has benefitted; impact on the environment; problem of speculative capital flows) so it is necessary to make globalisation sustainable.

Go further : discover the podcast series dedicated to sustainable globalisation.

FRANCE: AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF REFORMS Published on 5 Nov 2018 by Hélène BAUDCHON

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The Macronomics, which refer to and encompass the series of structural reforms and fiscal policy measures implemented by Emmanuel Macron administration, aim to both « liberate and protect » firms and individuals in order to boost growth and employment. The support to supply is an important cornerstone of this policy, backed by some stimulus to demand. These Macronomics address multiple challenges all at once, each block (labor market, firms, households’ purchasing power, State intervention, and Great Investment Plan) interacting with the others with a strong interdependence. Some of these reforms are already in force (labor law, taxation), others have just been passed (law for freedom to choose one’s professional future, PACTE law) and others are work in progress (State reform, pensions reform). While one can expect these reforms to yield significant positive results, these latter will show up over the long term.

To go further

Read the paper by Hélène Baudchon: France: First overview of the 2019 budget

GROWTH WATCH Published on 29 Jul 2018 by Hélène BAUDCHON

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In the first part of 2018, several factors undermined French growth, including temporary ones like tax increases and transport strikes, and imponderables, such as the upward pressure on oil prices. In the second half, growth is expected to accelerate again as domestic support factors regain the upper hand (healthier job market, planned tax cuts, and favourable financing conditions and economic policy). Dynamic world demand is another, more uncertain part of our central scenario, which places downside risk on our growth outlook of an average annual rate of 2% this year.

On the Same Theme

Elevated uncertainty slows growth despite lower rates 9/6/2019

Business surveys in the US paint a diverging picture: manufacturing is worsening significantly but services have picked up nicely. Taking a broader perspective, evidence is building of a slowing economy. Less dynamic growth can be observed in engines of growth of the world economy: China and India, although reasons differ. In Europe, Germany is probably already in a technical recession whereas France is resilient. Central banks are back in easing mode but the effectiveness will be hampered by elevated uncertainty, despite the announcement of a new round of trade negotiations between the US and China.

Monetary easing at full employment: how effective? 7/12/2019

Fed Chairman Powell, in his address to Congress this week, has confirmed that easing is coming. In June, ECB President Draghi provided similar hints. This comes on the back of growing concerns regarding global growth and ultimately facing too low a level of inflation. Risks may be mounting, but, on the other hand, the unemployment rate is close to the natural rate. There are reasons to assume that monetary easing under full employment would be less effective than when the economy is marred in recession. Monetary easing could also raise concerns about financial stability, which, if unaddressed, could weigh on the ability of monetary policy to successfully boost inflation.

Growth concerns on the rise 7/10/2019

A sigh of relief followed the publication of first quarter GDP data. However since, growth concerns have picked up again on the back of a collection of new economic data but also — and perhaps more importantly — due to continued high uncertainty. The latter stems from concerns over the extent of the slowdown and its consequences in terms of economic risks. It also emanates from escalating tensions between the US and China over trade. The effects of this confrontation already show up in the Chinese data while in the US, mounting anecdotal evidence also point to its detrimental impact on business and the agricultural sector. The Federal Reserve has turned a corner and indicated that rate cuts are coming, much to the joy of the equity market. The ECB has also changed its message: with risks tilted to the downside and inflation going nowhere, it considers more easing is necessary.

Exogenous versus endogenous uncertainty and monetary policy 7/5/2019

A high level of uncertainty can act as a drag on growth. Whether monetary easing will succeed in boosting growth will depend on the nature of uncertainty. Endogenous uncertainty follows from the normal development of the business cycle and rate cuts should succeed in reducing this uncertainty by boosting confidence of economic agents. Exogenous uncertainty is not driven by the business cycle but is triggered by other factors, such as, in the current environment, ongoing trade disputes. In this case, monetary policy effectiveness suffers and, despite rate cuts, the growth slowdown should continue until its root cause (exogenous uncertainty) is addressed.

	Uncertainty: persistently high 7/5/2019
High levels of uncertainty can have a profound impact on economic activity and financial markets. Our Pulse presents different metrics.