After a mechanical and spectacular recovery in economic activity during the third quarter, there seems to be a real risk that the euro zone will see the recovery come to an abrupt halt in the final quarter of the year. This will be due to the sharp rise in the number of new coronavirus cases, the measures taken to restrict the spread of the disease and the general feeling of uncertainty that will hold back spending. This said, we can already look forward to the impetus to recovery from a relaxation of these measures once the number of new cases has been brought back under control. We are therefore living in a stop-start economy, with strong acceleration alternating with brutal slowdowns. Such an environment, with its lack of visibility beyond the short term, is depressing the propensity of businesses to invest. Households may also delay spending on large-ticket items. Monetary and, to an even greater extent, fiscal support will thus remain crucial. Spillover effects from the rest of the world will also play a key role. In this context, one thinks of China and of the USA, where a new stimulus package is being drawn up.
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