Podcast: Eco Waves
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Idiosyncratic recoveries to drive modest growth pick-up 10/18/2019
According to the IMF’s chief economist, the growth outlook is precarious. Although the Fund expects somewhat of a pick-up of growth next year, this is driven by a small group of emerging and developing economies which are currently under stress or underperforming. The modest growth acceleration reflects country-specific factors, rather than the expectation of a broad-based improvement. In the US, the growth slowdown is expected to continue well beyond 2020 and Chinese growth is projected to decline to 5.8% next year. Against this background, the projected slight pick-up in the eurozone, driven by Germany and Italy, and which supposes that external demand regains some momentum, looks challenging. 
Uncertainty: at a peak ? 10/18/2019
We monitor uncertainty by means of different metrics. Starting top left and moving clockwise, the economic policy uncertainty index, which is based on media coverage, is at a historical high, on the back of US-China trade tensions and fears about a disorderly Brexit. The recent trade deal between the US and China, although of a very limited scope, and the agreement between the UK government and the European Union on Brexit, have fuelled hope that uncertainty will abate in the near term. This obviously remains to be seen...  
Negative interest rates and the households’ saving rate 10/3/2019
Interest rates are very low and often negative in many countries of the eurozone. This raises the concern that eventually we would be confronted with the paradox of thrift whereby the households’ saving rate increases. This would imply that monetary policy becomes powerless to boost growth.
Uncertainty to continue to weigh on growth and vice versa 9/9/2019
Three key factors have characterised the summer months: more signs of slower global growth, more uncertainty and the promise of monetary easing to come. Based on the recent news flow, these themes will in all likelihood continue to dominate the remainder of the year.
A brief history of financial instability 9/4/2019
2008 crisis was a major financial crisis but it was far from unique. William De Vijlder gives an account of some of the most significant economic crises with a particular focus on the 20th century. He shows how central banks tried to adjust to economic circumstances and fight financial instability. It is to be noted that financial stability has been one of the main concerns of central banks since the 2000s. The 2008 financial crisis reinforced the ambition of stability with notably the set-up of international organisations such as the FSB (Financial Stability Board) in 2009.
Central banks, inflation targeting and financial stability 9/4/2019
What is the position of central banks/organizations such as BIS (Bank for International Settlements), ECB (European Central Bank), the Fed (Federal Reserve) and the Bank of Japan on the issue of financial stability? In this last episode, William De Vijlder will focus on the Bank of Japan which has been conducting a policy of low interest rates for 20 years. Learning about the impact that such long-term policy has had on the Japanese economic agents is particularly relevant in our current low-rate environment.
The new crypto-currency "Libra" project 6/28/2019
The new cryptocurrency project – Libra – which Facebook plans to launch in 2020 raises several questions and requires an appropriate response from the regulator.
Policy uncertainty creates forecast uncertainty 5/24/2019
On the surface, the recently released forecasts of the IMF, the European Commission and the OECD look satisfactory, without being great. Upon closer inspection, unease dominates for a number of reasons.
Inclusive growth: why is it an issue? 2/27/2019
In this new series, William De Vijlder promotes the idea that growth can only be sustainable if it is inclusive. Indeed, poverty reduction on a lasting basis requires inclusive growth that allows people to contribute to and benefit from economic growth. In this first episode, we find out that inclusive growth refers both to the pace and pattern of growth, which are significantly interlinked. Interview conducted with François Doux.
Inclusive growth: the challenge at the country level 2/27/2019
Addressing inequalities is one of the core challenges for inclusive growth. This episode discusses why, within a given country, inclusive growth is key in tackling inequality and what can be done about it in terms of policy. Interview conducted with François Doux.

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