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ECB : Big package in March

3/11/2016

The ECB unveiled a new round of easing measures in March.

 Thibault MERCIER

TRANSCRIPT // ECB : Big package in March : March 2016

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The drop in Eurozone GDP: the worst is yet to come 5/6/2020
France: shocking figures reveal the extent of the shock4/30/2020

On the Same Theme

First signs of a timid turnaround 5/29/2020
Without a doubt, the eurozone GDP will contract much more sharply in Q2 than in Q1 (-3.8% on a quarterly basis, q/q). Yet this deterioration generally seems to have been halted. After a timid upturn in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in May, the eurozone Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) also seems to have bottomed out. After dropping to an all-time low of 64.9 in April 2020, the ESI picked up slightly to 67.5 in May [...]
At the trough? 5/27/2020
Households’ confidence will be a key determinant in the current recovery. The deterioration – felt or anticipated – in the labour market has weighed on consumers’ optimism: the European Commission (EC) unemployment expectations index dropped to a 11-year low in April (63.0). However, the Purchasing Managers indices (PMI) indicate that the economic downturn has started to ease in May. This could filter through into a pick-up of households’ confidence. Indeed, the chart below shows that the EC unemployment expectations index follows closely the employment PMI indicator. The latter improved in May, although staying at a very low level. The gradual reopening of shops, restaurants, and some cultural sites could also support consumers’ confidence in the coming weeks.
Four countries, four ways to recover 5/20/2020
The shape of the post-crisis recovery will depend on the characteristics of each economy, the fiscal response and the level of integration in global value chains. Even before the COVID-19 crisis, some eurozone economies were more vulnerable than others. High levels of debt or unemployment could limit the strength of the recovery. At a domestic level, the sectoral structure, the pattern of private consumption and the labour market situation will be crucial. A high dependency on tourism, a sector durably impacted by the crisis, could hold back the recovery. At the external level, a slow recovery in global trade would hit the most open economies. Moreover, the distortions in global value chains during this crisis could weaken the most highly-integrated economies over a longer period.
Recession in the eurozone: will this time be different? 5/19/2020
Key factors of uncertainty during a recession are its length and the pace of recovery. The 2008 recession lasted long and the growth pick-up was very gradual. The current recession is far deeper but should also be more short-lived because its origin is a pandemic so when the lockdown is lifted activity picks up mechanically. According to the European Commission, the recovery should also be swifter than in 2009.
The many faces of proportionality in economic policy 5/7/2020
Following the judgment of the German Constitutional Court on 5 May, the ECB Governing Council needs to demonstrate that the monetary policy objectives of its PSPP are not disproportionate to the economic and fiscal policy effects resulting from the programme. In most cases, monetary, economic and fiscal policies are mutually reinforcing. When assessing whether monetary policy is appropriate, one should take into account the stance of economic and fiscal policy. The necessity to have adequate transmission to all jurisdictions as well as the likelihood and extent of tail risks due to insufficient policy action also play a role in the assessment.
The drop in Eurozone GDP: the worst is yet to come 5/6/2020
Eurozone DP shrank by -3.8% in the Q1 2020, on a quarterly basis. The economic contraction in Q2 2020 is set to be much more pronounced. The consequences of the current crisis have not been yet fully identified and given the risk of financial fragmentation, the action of the ECB should remain flexible.
Lending trends in the euro zone: The coronavirus pandemic has led to an unprecedented rise in demand for credit from companies, but has hit demand from households 4/30/2020
Lending momentum in the euro zone recovered strongly in March 2020, with an increase of 1.6% from a 0.4% fall in February. Against a background of negative GDP growth in the first quarter (-3.3% Q/Q-4 from +1.0% Q/Q-4 the fourth quarter of 2019), conditions in March were severely affected by the lockdown measures introduced by national governments over the month [...]
A disinflationary bias in the short and the medium term? 4/27/2020
The Covid-19 crisis will result in a sharp contraction of eurozone GDP. However, its effect on inflation is still unclear. The impact could be disinflationary over the short term, although no consensus has emerged as to the likely medium term trend. In March, total inflation in the eurozone fell significantly, also reflecting the effect of lower energy prices. The destruction of a portion of the productive capacity could constrain supply in the medium term, whilst public policies will support demand, thus encouraging an acceleration in prices. Conversely, a lack of demand relative to potential supply could maintain a disinflationary bias in the eurozone.
A new, massive shock 4/8/2020
The Covid-19 pandemic has triggered a recession in the Eurozone that looks likely to be deep but short-lived. After a difficult year and a half on the economic front, the Eurozone was showing some resilience and was even beginning to show signs of stabilisation. The current shock – in demand, supply and uncertainty simultaneously – has completely changed the outlook. The health measures taken- which have been necessary to protect the population from the virus- have created the conditions for a recession. Monetary and fiscal policymakers have reacted swiftly and, so far, proportionately. However, the profile of the economic recovery remains unclear and will be crucial in assessing the damage ultimately caused by the pandemic.
The collapse of economic activity has been confirmed 4/3/2020
Looking at the economic data for the euro area that has emerged recently, the conclusion is clear: we are seeing an unprecedented economic contraction in the service sector. The average eurozone service sector PMI plummeted in Q1 2020, well below its long-term average...

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