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2022, towards a likely new record in CO2 emissions

2022, towards a likely new record in CO2 emissions

2022 is not over, but it is likely to set an absolute record for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions after the 2019 peak.

The resumption of air and road traffic, the intensification of the use of coal as a substitute for Russian gas, or simply the fact that the global economy has continued to expand despite a lagging China and the United States, leave little room for doubt.

In its latest Global Energy Review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that 2021 already saw CO2 emissions rise sharply in comparison to 2020 (by 6%) due to the post-Covid recovery. Coal, on the other hand, was one of the main drivers of the upturn. Together with other fossil fuels (oil and gas), it still represents 80% of the world’s primary mix, a fairly stable share for the past ten years, which must nevertheless be reduced.

In its sixth 2021 report aimed at policy-makers, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicated that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has already reached 410 parts per million and resulted in global warming of 1.07°C (best estimate) compared to the pre-industrial era. With regard to the sustainable trajectories set in Paris in 2015, there is a threat of going off course, exacerbating awareness. In the European Union, the 'fit for 55' plan sets out a very ambitious roadmap for GHG reduction by 2030, with carbon neutrality still being targeted for 2050. From reforming the emissions trading system to implementing a carbon adjustment mechanism at borders, revising renewable energy directives or setting up a Social Climate Fund, the list of proposals made by the Commission is long. It still remains to be applied.

Team : Economic Projections