EcoWeek

Accelerated fall

Eco week 20-19 // 15 May 2020  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
6
ECONOMIC PULSE  
UNITED STATES: ACCELERATED FALL  
In the United States, as elsewhere, the paralysis of activity caused by In reality, the explosive growth in unemployment (14.7% of the active  
the Covid-19 pandemic has affected the production of statistics, which population in April, 36 million benefit claims since mid-March) will  
have become harder to interpret. The rebound in hourly wages in April exert downward pressure on wages. In general terms, the barometer  
indicated by the Pulse is a false signal and should be treated with of US economic activity is starting to show contractions at historical-  
caution: it can be explained by the collapse in hours worked, against ly high levels, such as those in non-farm employment (more than 20  
which wages always show a certain inertia. Not only is the information million jobs lost in April) or private consumption. There will be more  
gathered from companies incomplete, but there may well have been to come.  
a lag between the shutdown of businesses and the stopping of wages.  
Jean-Luc Proutat  
QUARTERLY CHANGES  
3
-month moving average (actual)  
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
ISM Manufacturing  
3.0  
2.0  
1.0  
0.0  
Industrial production  
ISM NonManufacturing  
Housing Starts  
Consumer Confidence  
-
-
-
1.0  
2.0  
3.0  
Unemployment Rate  
Personal Consumption  
Nonfarm Payrolls  
PCE Core Price Index  
Average Hourly  
Earnings  
CPI  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into z-scores. By construction, the z-scores have mean zero and their values, which indicate how  
far the indicator is removed from its long-term average, are in the interval between -3 and 3 in almost all cases. In the radar chart, the blue area  
shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the blue  
area signals an improvement.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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