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Angola: External imbalances persist despite higher oil prices

ECONOMIC RESEARCH DEPARTMENT  
Angola: External imbalances persist despite higher oil prices  
Since Angola abandoned its currency peg to the US dollar at the beginning of the year, the kwanza has lost more  
than 40% against the US dollar. The spread between the official and parallel exchange rates has narrowed  
gradually, although it is still high at more than 20%. The central bank’s foreign reserves have barely increased  
despite the rebound in crude oil prices since late 2017 and borrowing in the international capital markets (at a  
relatively high cost).  
Angola is expected to report another current account deficit in 2018 because the trade surplus is still too small to  
offset the deficits in the balance of services and income. Foreign investment (both direct and portfolio investment) is  
also too weak. Consequently, Angola’s external position remains fragile. The currency will remain under pressure  
and forex controls will persist in the short term.  
Value of oil production  
Foreign exchange reserves (rhs)  
USD Bn  
USD Bn  
70  
60  
50  
40  
30  
20  
10  
0
35  
30  
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
0
2012  
2013  
2014  
2015  
2016  
2017e  
2018f  
Sources: National Bank of Angola, Jodi, BNP Paribas  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
Sara Confalonieri  
24 October 2018  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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