EcoWeek

Credit pulse

4
Ecoweek 19-28 // 12 July 2019  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
Pulse  
Eurozone: Credit pulse  
The credit impulse picked up very slightly in May 2019 in the euro area for households whereas it declined for non-financial corporations. The  
annual growth of loans to private non-financial sector stabilized at around 3.3%. Demand for credit is expected to rise in the third quarter of 2019  
across all loan categories, stimulated by the easing of financing conditions, except for home loans, for which lending conditions are expected to  
tighten slightly.  
Credit impulse*  
Real GDP Growth vs Bank Lending  
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
% **  
16 Annual growth rates**, %  
14  
12  
10  
8
Households  
NFC  
Private sector  
Real GDP, %, y/y  
-
-
-
-
6
4
2
0
Households  
Private sector  
NFC  
-
-
-
10  
12  
14  
-2  
-4  
-6  
Real GDP, %, y/y  
2
005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
ECB Bank Lending Survey, Expected (firms)  
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Net change  
ECB Bank Lending Survey, Expected ( households)  
8
6
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
6
Net change  
5
0
6
Credit standards to firms  
Credit demand of firms  
Real GDP, %, y/y [RHS]  
4
4
25  
0
2
2
0
0
-
-
25  
50  
Consumer credit demand  
Consumer credit standards  
Housing credit demand  
-2  
-4  
-6  
-2  
-
-
20  
Housing credit standards -4  
Rea lGDP, %, y/y [RHS]  
40  
-75  
-6  
2
005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
Credit impulse is measured as the annual change of the annual growth rate of MFI loans ** Adjusted for securitizations  
Source: ECB, ECB survey on the distribution of credit, BLS, BNP Paribas calculations  
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019  
*
Indicators preview  
Next week, China's second quarter GDP numbers will be eagerly awaited considering the signs of further slowdown in recent data. The US will  
publish regional business surveys (Empire State, Philadelphia) as well as University of Michigan sentiment which will provide an early glimpse  
for July. Several data on the housing activity and market (NAHB index, permits, starts), retail sales and industrial activity will improve our reading  
of how the US has been doing in June. In this respect, the Beige Book of the Fed is also particularly interesting when looking for comments on  
how companies assess the impact of tariffs increases and the uncertainty on that matter. In the eurozone, we will have data on trade, inflation  
and car registrations.  
Date  
7/15/2019  
Country/Region  
China  
Event  
GDP SA QoQ  
Period  
2Q  
Survey  
1.5%  
Prior  
1.4%  
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/15/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/16/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/17/2019  
7/18/2019  
7/18/2019  
7/18/2019  
7/18/2019  
7/18/2019  
7/19/2019  
United States  
United Kingdom  
Eurozone  
Empire Manufacturing  
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths  
Trade Balance SA  
July  
May  
May  
May  
--  
--  
--  
--  
-8.6  
3.8%  
1.53e+10  
1.57e+10  
0.5%  
0.4%  
78.1%  
64  
0.1%  
0.3%  
0.1%  
--  
1.269e+06  
-0.9%  
1.294e+06  
0.3%  
Eurozone  
Trade Balance NSA  
United States  
United States  
United States  
United States  
Eurozone  
Retail Sales Control Group  
Industrial Production MoM  
Capacity Utilization  
NAHB Housing Market Index  
EU27 New Car Registrations  
CPI MoM  
CPI MoM  
MBA Mortgage Applications  
Housing Starts  
June  
June  
June  
July  
June  
June  
June  
July-12  
June  
June  
June  
June  
--  
0.2%  
78.1%  
--  
--  
--  
--  
--  
1.26e+06  
-0.7%  
1.3e+06  
0.1%  
United Kingdom  
Eurozone  
United States  
United States  
United States  
United States  
United States  
United States  
Japan  
United Kingdom  
United Kingdom  
United States  
United States  
United States  
Housing Starts MoM  
Building Permits  
Building Permits MoM  
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book  
Trade Balance  
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM  
Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel MoM  
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook  
Leading Index  
June  
June  
June  
July  
June  
July  
--  
--  
--  
--  
--  
--  
-9.671e+11  
-0.3%  
-0.5%  
0.3  
0.0%  
98.2  
University of Michigan Sentiment  
Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
Ce site présente leurs analyses.
Le site contient 2485 articles et 640 vidéos