Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Epidemiological indicators: a downward trend is taking shape

09/26/2021

RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER

DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY

The global Covid-19 pandemic continued to ease for the fourth consecutive week, with new cases down by 6% between 16 and 22 September, relative to the previous week. This downward trend was observed in all regions (chart 1). The number of deaths also fell globally (down 9% on the previous week), but this was not spread across all regions. Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns have continued to gain ground around the world. According to the latest figures on Oxford University’s Our World in Data website (chart 2), 6.03 billion doses of vaccine have now been administered worldwide, the majority in high-income countries. This said, India has announced that vaccine deliveries under the COVAX programme will resume in October. This follows the country’s suspension of exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine in late March 2021 in order to meet internal demand created by a second wave of infections.

DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE

However, we have also seen a recent dip in visits to retail and leisure facilities in developed nations. Even so, these were still at their pre-pandemic levels in Germany, Belgium and Italy, and very close to normal in France, Spain, the US, Japan and the UK (chart 3).

Lastly, after a brief rally, the weekly proxy indicator for GDP relative to its level two years ago showed slight declines in the US, Germany and Italy, and a continued fall in the UK. Conversely, it continued to improve in Japan, bounced back in France after a short drop, and stabilised in Belgium (Chart 3). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The change over a two-year period (y/2y) is calculated to avoid the base effect that would arise from a comparison with 2020 data.

RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY
THE EXPERT ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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