EcoWeek

Signs of slumping

Eco week 20-14 // 10 April 2020  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
5
ECONOMIC PULSE  
UNITED STATES: SIGNS OF SLUMPING  
Americans and the US economy, like many other countries, will pay a The most crying symptoms of paralysis can be seen in the labour  
heavy price for the Covid-19 pandemic. Although the virus seemed to market. In the last two weeks of March, just over 10 million people  
be slowing for a moment, it was spreading rapidly again as we went to applied for unemployment benefits, the number normally seen in a full  
press, with more than 30,000 new cases reported daily. The economy year. Non-farm payroll employment fell by a near record of 700,000 in  
is beginning to show signs of slumping. Although not visible in the March, even though the economy was operating more or less normally  
present mapping (which smooths economic indexes over a 3-month during the first half of the month.  
period), these signs foreshadow an unprecedented slump in US GDP in  
second-quarter 2020 (see table with our updated forecasts).  
Jean-Luc Proutat  
QUARTERLY CHANGES  
-month moving average (actual)  
3
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
ISM Manufacturing  
3.0  
2.0  
1.0  
0.0  
Industrial production  
ISM NonManufacturing  
Housing Starts  
Consumer Confidence  
-
-
-
1.0  
2.0  
3.0  
Unemployment Rate  
Personal Consumption  
Nonfarm Payrolls  
PCE Core Price Index  
Average Hourly  
Earnings  
CPI  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into z-scores. By construction, the z-scores have mean zero and their values, which indicate how  
far the indicator is removed from its long-term average, are in the interval between -3 and 3 in almost all cases. In the radar chart, the blue area  
shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the blue  
area signals an improvement.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
Ce site présente leurs analyses.
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