EcoWeek

US indicators: An accelerated pulse

Eco week 21-18 // 10 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
ECONOMIC PULSE  
UNITED STATES: AN ACCELERATED PULSE  
The vaccine keeps its promises, so does Joe Biden. With USD 400 bn LookingbeyondthetragichumantollofCovid19-nearly580,000deaths  
in stimulus checks nearly in pockets and partial immunity achieved have been reported to date- the crisis has also excluded millions of  
against Covid 19, Americans are on the move to spend again. After a Americans from the labour market, some for the long term. Although  
record-breaking month of March, private consumption surged by more job creations have picked up (+266.000 in the non-farm payroll  
than 10% (seasonally adjusted annual rate, saar) in the first quarter. sector in April, a lower than expected figure), which has driven the  
GDP rose 6.4% (saar) and will continue to accelerate in the weeks and unemployment rate back near 6% (6.1% in April), they are far from  
months ahead. By summer 2021, it will have surpassed the year-end offsetting the shortfall in employment due to the pandemic, which still  
2
019 level and erased all of the ground lost during the pandemic.  
numbers in the 8.5 millions. The labour market participation rate has  
fallen to historical lows (61.7% in April), a sign that things have yet to  
return to normal  
Along with rising commodity prices – industrial metal prices are  
verging on peak levels – and the shortage of electronic components,  
the powering up of the US economy is awakening inflation expectations.  
Jean-Luc Proutat  
1
0-year inflation-linked swap rates have continued to rise in recent  
days, surpassing 2.5%, the highest level since 2014. Consumer prices  
are also beginning to stir: they rose 2.6% in the year to March and will  
probably rise above 3% in April, when price indexes will be compared  
with the abnormally low levels of spring 2020. These statistics clearly  
capture a catching-up movement, but they say little about the other  
scars left by the crisis, which unfortunately are much deeper.  
QUARTERLY CHANGES  
ISM Manufacturing  
.0  
3
-month moving average (actual)  
4
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
Industrial production  
3.0  
ISM Services  
2
1
0
.0  
.0  
.0  
Housing Starts  
Consumer Confidence  
-1.0  
-2.0  
-3.0  
-4.0  
Unemployment Rate  
Personal Consumption  
Nonfarm Payrolls  
PCE Core Price Index  
Average Hourly  
Earnings  
CPI  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into ‘z-scores’ (deviations from the long-term average, as standard deviations). These z-scores have mean  
zero and their values are between -4 and +4. In the radar chart, the blue area shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the  
situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the blue area compared to the dotted area signals an increase in the variable.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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