Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Uncertainty: mixed signals

04/18/2019

The different uncertainty measures are sending mixed signals. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which is based on media coverage about policy uncertainty, is no longer increasing but a downward trend has not yet started. The top right chart shows uncertainty based on company surveys. In Germany, uncertainty remains very high and the latest report shows another, albeit small, increase. US companies on the other hand feel less and less uncertain. Finally, uncertainty based on the dispersion of the share price performance of individual companies is on a declining trend in the US and the eurozone. In case of the latter, the level remains well above that seen one year ago.

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