Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Uncertainty on the rise

01/17/2019

The economic policy uncertainty index, which is based on media coverage of this topic, has seen a huge increase since the middle of last year, even surpassing the previous high reached at the end of 2016. Measures of business uncertainty in Germany and the US have also risen. The dispersion of individual stock returns, a third measure of uncertainty, has also increased in the US and to a lesser extent in the eurozone. The different indicators lead to the same conclusion of a rising trend in uncertainty on the back of trade war fears, Brexit concerns, slower growth. A prolonged period of high uncertainty would end up acting as a headwind to growth.

Global index
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