EcoWeek

A resilient Turkish economy

Eco week 20-10 // 13 March 2020  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
6
ECONOMIC PULSE  
A RESILIENT TURKISH ECONOMY  
Our indicators show a rather resilient Turkish economy given the global prices is a blessing for the country as it should offset the increase of  
slowdown and uncertainties linked to the military operation in Syria. the non-oil trade deficit caused by the depreciation of the currency and  
Indeed, real GDP rebounded markedly in Q42019 (+5.9% yoy compared the significant participation of Turkish industries in global value chains.  
with 1% in Q3) thanks to a sustained private consumption. Moreover, There is a caveat to this overall positive picture: it does not take into  
business confidence has recovered. Household confidence has deteri- account the disruptive impact of Covid-19 as data (surveys included)  
orated with the rise in unemployment but consumer credit has sky- were collected before the spreading of the outbreak.  
rocketed as a result of very attractive borrowing conditions offered by  
François Faure  
public banks in the wake of monetary easing (the policy rate has been  
lowered to 10.75% from still 24% at end-July). The recent fall in oil  
QUARTERLY CHANGES  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into z-scores. By construction, the z-scores have mean zero and their values, which indicate how  
far the indicator is removed from its long-term average, are in the interval between -3 and 3 in almost all cases. In the radar chart, the blue  
area shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the  
blue area signals an improvement.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
Ce site présente leurs analyses.
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