EcoWeek

A still resilient pulse indicator

Eco week 20-16 // 24 April 2020  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
5
ECONOMIC PULSE  
TURKEY: A STILL RESILIENT PULSE INDICATOR  
Our Pulse for Turkey shows good resilience of the economy until  
February/March. So far, the government has not imposed a generalized  
lockdown therefore the supply shock is less severe than for other  
European economies. Besides, the Central Bank has lowered its policy  
rate by 200 basis points since mid-March and one third of the support  
program announced by the government (2.3% of GDP) has already been  
spent at mid-March. We expect recession to be limited to -2% for 2020  
as a whole.  
François Faure  
QUARTERLY CHANGES  
3
-month moving average (actual)  
-
-- 3-month moving average (4 months ago)  
Current account balance  
3
2
1
0
.0  
.0  
.0  
.0  
International reserves  
Imports of goods  
CPI  
Exports of goods  
-
-
-
1.0  
2.0  
3.0  
Consumer confidence  
indicator  
Unemployment rate  
Business confidence  
indicator  
Retail sales  
Industrial production  
Capacity utilization  
Dwelling residential  
buildings  
SOURCE: THOMSON REUTERS, BNP PARIBAS  
The indicators in the radar are all transformed into z-scores. By construction, the z-scores have mean zero and their values, which indicate how  
far the indicator is removed from its long-term average, are in the interval between -3 and 3 in almost all cases. In the radar chart, the blue area  
shows the actual conditions of economic activity. It is compared with the situation four months earlier (dotted-line). An expansion of the blue  
area signals an improvement.  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
Ce site présente leurs analyses.
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