In this issue, William De Vijlder's editorial, Guillaume Derrien's analysis of the latest indicators on international trade, and the update of our markets overview and economic scenario sections.
According to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor, between 2023 and 2029, many advanced economies are projected to see an increase in their public sector debt to GDP ratio. The US ranks second in terms of increase of the public debt ratio (+ 11.7 percentage points of GDP). Administration and Congress will have no other option than to structurally reduce the budget deficit. However, the challenge will be huge given the unpopularity of tax increases, the difficulty of cutting expenditures and the major headwinds of rising interest charges and, in the medium run, slower GDP growth. Whether the US manages to bring its public finances under control also matters for the rest of the world, given the central role of the US Treasury market and the US dollar in the global financial system
L’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) a publié en avril son dernier jeu de prévisions dont le message est plutôt positif1. Après un repli de 1,2% en 2023, le volume des échanges mondiaux en biens rebondirait de 2,6% en 2024, une progression peu ou prou en ligne avec la croissance de l’économie mondiale, attendue par l’OMC à 2,7%. Parmi les principaux soutiens au commerce mondial, l’organisation de Genève met en avant la baisse anticipée de l’inflation en 2024 et 2025. Celle-ci permettrait de soutenir le pouvoir d’achat et, par conséquent, la consommation de biens manufacturés.
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
