Based in Paris, BNP Paribas' Economic Research Department is composed of economists and statisticians:
The Economic Research department’s mission is to cater to the economic research needs of the clients, business lines and functions of BNP Paribas. Our team of economists and statisticians covers a large number of advanced, developing and emerging countries, the real economy, financial markets and banking. As we foster the sharing of our research output with anyone who is interested in the economic situation or who needs insight into specific economic issues, this website presents our analysis, videos and podcasts.
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Following a period of economic stagnation in 2023, Dutch growth gathered momentum in 2024 on the back of solid consumer confidence and more favourable financial conditions thanks to the ECB interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Dutch labour market remains tight, with plenty of unfilled jobs; this should lead to stronger real-wage gains, thereby further supporting private consumption. While business investment has been declining since the start of 2023, there is hope that it will gradually recover in 2025 in line with additional monetary policy easing, which is expected in Europe. Public investment growth is also set to remain quite supportive implying a larger government deficit
The Dutch economy avoided falling back into recession in the second quarter, thanks to a much smaller annual drop in exports and solid public spending, which was a promise from the new government. However, inflation is stronger than expected and will need to be monitored, as it could become a drag on private consumption. The outlook remains fine, nevertheless, but investments need to recover further in order to compensate for persisting labour shortages.
The Dutch economy was confronted with a new decline of its GDP in the first quarter of 2024, due to an unexpected drop in exports. The future does not look too gloomy though, since a new coalition was formed and presented friendly purchasing power measures that are likely to support private consumption. The agreement however plans to limit the budget deficit to 2.8% of GDP through spending cuts which could deteriorate the country’s productivity in the longer run.
The short Dutch recession seems to be over, thanks to dynamic private and public consumption. Inflation continues to cool down, even though it remains stickier than thought in some sectors. A new government has still not been formed yet, but there is a consensus about the fact that once it is the case, public spending is set to increase further, giving the economy an extra boost. The Dutch economy is therefore likely to navigate a different, more positive, path from its neighbors’.
The country fell into recession during 2023, like in Germany across the border, but 2024 is expected to be better as the future government will have the financial resources to revitalise the economy. A little bit of patience will be needed though for things to settle down. The Dutch economy remains heavily exposed to the global environment, which is very tense at the start of this year.
