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Economic Pulse

Covid-19: the pandemic is continuing to decline (almost) all over the world | Economic Research - BNP Paribas

04/24/2022

According to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University, 5.9 million cases of Covid-19 were reported worldwide between 13 and 19 April (down 24% relative to the previous week), the lowest level since the end of December 2021. The number of cases continued to fall in Europe and Asia (down 26%), South America (down 24%) and Africa (down 13%), while a further increase was seen in North America (7%) for the second time in a row (chart 1). To date, the threshold of 11 billion vaccine doses has been reached, including 1.8 billion follow-up doses. This means that around 65% of the worldwide population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (chart 2).

With the decline in the number of new cases, visits to retail and recreation facilities rose between 4 and 17 April relative to the previous two weeks in most of the countries in our sample. Over these two weeks, footfall increased by 10.3% in Belgium, 10% in France, 7.4% in Spain, 7% in Italy and 6.4% in the United Kingdom. Footfall remained stable over the same period in the United States, and moved downwards again in Japan (down 5 points) (chart 3).

Lastly, the weekly proxy indicator of GDP remained positive in the United States, Japan, and Belgium, France and Spain. In Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy, a clear change of trend was seen (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.

DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY
THE EXPERT ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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