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01/02/2023

The latest economic indicators

In China, rising Covid-19 infections have caused a huge drop in the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector (from 46.7 to 41.6). In manufacturing, there was a limited decline. In the Eurozone, labour costs in the third quarter increased 2.9%, which was less than in the previous quarter (4.0%). Consumer confidence improved somewhat. In Germany, the IFO business climate rebounded more than expected. Consumer confidence improved as well. In the US, the NAHB housing market index declined, whereas the consensus had expected a slight improvement. Housing starts were down marginally in November but building permits recorded a huge drop. The Conference Board consumer confidence index jumped in December. The assessment of the present situation and expectations about the outlook were both significantly up. Third quarter GDP growth was revised upwards to 3.2%. The Conference Board index of leading indicators continued its decline in November. The drop was bigger than expected. In November, growth of personal income slowed. The slowdown was even bigger for personal spending. University of Michigan sentiment improved in December. Short-run inflation expectations declined to 4.4% but longer-run expectations edged higher to 3.0%.

Latest indicators

2023 is starting with a heavy schedule in terms of data releases

The attention will focus on the labour market report in the US, considering what it may imply for future rate decisions by the FOMC. On this last point, the publication this week of the FOMC minutes will provide additional insights. The purchasing managers’ surveys will be published in a large number of countries for manufacturing and services, and, in some cases, for the construction sector as well. In the US, the ISM indices for manufacturing and services will be released. In the euro area, we will have the consumer and business surveys of the European Commission for the month of December as well as retail sales for November and inflation for December.

Coming indicators
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