Although August industrial production and retail sales beat expectations, key data with respect to September have sent conflicting signals. Both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM came in below expectations, creating a lot of nervousness in the run-up to the release of the all-important labour market data. They brought relief with 136.000 jobs having been added in September (versus a Bloomberg consensus of 145.000) and, in particular, an unemployment rate of 3.5%, which is well below the consensus of 3.7%. The labour market is of particular importance for household spending, even more so considering that the Conference Board consumer confidence index has also disappointed in September. The ambiguous signal coming from the recent data releases complicates the task of economic forecasters in assessing the pace of slowdown of the US economy. It is also a challenge for the Federal Reserve in deciding whether to ease policy further. In our view, the FOMC will proceed with further rate cuts.
index Etats-Unis
