Our pulse indicators are sending a clear positive signal. Only the composite PMI surprised on the downside (51.2) and is below trend. Inflation (1.1% y/y), GDP growth (0.3% q/q) and the unemployment rate (8.7%) were in line with expectations, with inflation and the unemployment rate being below their trend and growth on par with it. Industrial production (+0.4% m/m), households’ consumption of goods (+0.8% m/m), business and consumer confidence (106 et 99, respectively) surprised positively and are above trend. Strong payroll gains in Q1 (+94k) come in addition to these favourable results. The whole set of data augurs well for Q2 growth, which we expect to be stable at 0.3% q/q.
Index France
