Our indicators show a rather resilient Turkish economy given the global slowdown and uncertainties linked to the military operation in Syria. Indeed, real GDP rebounded markedly in Q42019 (+5.9% yoy compared with 1% in Q3) thanks to a sustained private consumption. Moreover, business confidence has recovered. Household confidence has deteriorated with the rise in unemployment but consumer credit has skyrocketed as a result of very attractive borrowing conditions offered by public banks in the wake of monetary easing (the policy rate has been lowered to 10.75% from still 24% at end-July). The recent fall in oil prices is a blessing of for the country as it should offset the increase of the non-oil trade deficit caused by the depreciation of the currency and the significant participation of Turkish industries in global value chains. There is a caveat to this overall positive picture: it does not take into account the disruptive impact of Covid-19 as data (surveys included) were collected before the spreading of the outbreak.
QUARTERLY CHANGES 
