In the United States, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, fell significantly in February, following a rebound in January. The index fell from 124 to 97, the lowest level since July 2023, when the policy rates were last raised. With US growth and the labour market continuing to hold up well, the economic outlook appears to be brighter and less uncertain. This gives greater credit to the scenario of a soft landing for the economy, and greater comfort for the Fed’s cautious stance and to take its time before cutting rates.
The further decline in the uncertainty felt by US companies about their sales growth is in line with this, and benefits from the resilience of macroeconomic indicators and the reduction in geopolitical tensions in February compared with January.
