Podcast: Macro Waves

On the Same Theme

Monetary policy : from theory without end to the end of theory 9/2/2022
The last twelve months, inflation has continued to surprise to the upside, due to a combination of a series of supply shocks (covid-19, disruption and shortages, the war in Ukraine, weather conditions) and the strength of demand, which had been underestimated. Today, the broad-based nature of inflation and its persistence are the real issues, which reduce the visibility in terms of future inflation developments. Therefore, central banks have decided to change their approach. The theory of inflation and monetary policy has been put aside, the only thing that matters are the data. The main worry of the ECB and the Fed is that inflation expectations become unanchored and influence pricing decision of companies as well as wage negotiations. Consequently, the central banks’ overriding objective is to slow down demand growth by hiking rates, hopefully helped by the absence of new supply shocks.
Let’s keep talking about climate change 7/1/2022
It is important to keep talking about climate change and the energy transition because it builds awareness of the issues, helps us better understand what needs to be done, and makes the necessary measures easier to accept. So, let’s keep talking about climate with this update on some of the major European advances that were made over the past few days.
Stagflation: reminiscences of the past 6/12/2022
In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began.  In the current economic environment, which bears the brunt of the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, inflation is exceptionally high. Should we fear the return of stagflation? What is the central banks' room for manoeuvre to address the issue of a high and persistent inflation without damaging growth? And what can fiscal policy do to cushion economic shocks? 
Stagflation: is it really back? 6/12/2022
In this series of podcasts, William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas, discusses the issue of stagflation, a term that has been increasingly used in the media in recent months. Stagflation, a multi-year phenomenon combining rising unemployment and high inflation, brings us back to the dark days of the 1970s and 1980s, when inflation levels were unprecedented and mass unemployment began.  In the current economic environment, which bears the brunt of the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, inflation is exceptionally high. Should we fear the return of stagflation? What is the central banks' room for manoeuvre to address the issue of a high and persistent inflation without damaging growth? And what can fiscal policy do to cushion economic shocks? 
The global economy faces multiple shocks 5/18/2022
William De Vijlder outlines the main points of focus for the first half of the year. Inflation is a major issue as the global economy – still recovering from the Covid-19 shock – now faces a new shock with the war in Ukraine and its implications for supply chains and the energy market.
The complex relationship between financial conditions, nominal and real interest rates 5/6/2022
Financial conditions reflect whether monetary policy acts as a support to growth or as a headwind. They can be assessed by looking at the level of short and long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads, the exchange rate. Sometimes equity markets and bank lending survey data are also taken into account.
From one crisis to another, how does Europe respond? 4/22/2022
As a result of the war in Ukraine, the energy shock experienced in Europe is questioning the economic recovery. It also highlights the urgent need for a transition to carbon neutrality.
Decoupling, deglobalisation and the inflation outlook 4/15/2022
The Covid-19 pandemic has confronted us with the fragility of long, complex global value chains and the war in Ukraine shows that geopolitics can be a major cause of supply disruption. 
Geopolitical uncertainty, monetary and fiscal policy 3/4/2022
The war in Ukraine is impacting the global economy in various ways: higher commodity prices, international trade, financial markets as well as an increase in geopolitical uncertainty, which is a key channel of transmission. It influences decisions by households and companies because the full effect of the jump in oil and gas prices is not yet visible and because of concern about further increases in commodity prices.
Inflation: a cycle in three phases 2/4/2022
Over the past two years, the world economy has suddenly moved from too little to too much inflation.

ABOUT US Three teams of economists (OECD countries research, emerging economies and country risk, banking economics) make up BNP Paribas Economic Research Department.
This website presents their analyses.
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