The adverse effects of the Trump administration's trade and migration policies on US economic activity are emerging, as they were reflected in the July Employment Situation report and the economy as a whole is exhibiting further signs of a clear loss of momentum. Meanwhile, the trade agreements recently signed should ease the uncertainty shock. Finally, the rebalancing of risks associated with increased fears about employment could challenge the Fed's wait-and-see stance.
GDP growth figures for the first half of the year were clouded by a series of conflicting factors. In Q2, growth in the Eurozone was hit by a decline in exports, while imports in the United States led to a sharp rebound. This is a backlash from Q1, when additional exports, in anticipation of the tariff shock, had supported growth in the Eurozone, while penalising growth in the United States. Beyond this unusual volatility, it is the robustness of growth that is striking. In the Eurozone, German growth was back, although moderately, and monetary policy easing had an impact, with this robustness set to continue in the second half of the year. In the United States, the slowdown remained relative but is likely to strengthen due to the growing impact of tariffs on inflation and consumption.
The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research
Outside the US, GDP growth in the first quarter generally exceeded expectations in the European Union, the UK, and emerging economies, including China. After the surge in imports that preceded the US tariff hike, the backlash in the second quarter will be more limited than expected in most cases. However, it would be premature to sound the all-clear, as three dangers loom: tariffs, inflation, and public debt.
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Our Q2 2025 nowcasts highlight the resilience of the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent, France. Weaker exports (after their surge in Q1 in anticipation of the US trade tariffs) penalises our forecast in Q2. It’s the opposite for the US with the Atlanta Fed nowcast at +0.7% for Q2. However, US GDP growth is estimated to have slowed down; that of the Eurozone is expected to be more stable. Japan is not expected to emerge from the stagnation observed in Q1.
The composite PMI index was stable at 50.2 in June, remaining above the expansion threshold in the first half of the year. The upturn in the manufacturing index slowed but continued (+0.1 pt to 49.5). It was driven in particular by new orders, with the index back above the 50 threshold for the first time in three years. The services PMI is unchanged.
The IFO business climate continues to improve (+0.9 points in June compared to the previous month, to 88.4), supported by favourable economic prospects. The early measures taken by the Merz government (enhanced depreciation allowances for investments, an ambitious budget for public investment until 2025 and a commitment to reduce energy costs for businesses) are fuelling high expectations. These are also reflected in the PMI index, which is picking up in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Business climate: improvement confirmed in construction. The business climate continues to be quite low, with 96 in June and in May (97 in March-April). The rebound was moderate in services (from 95 to 96, compared with 98 in April) while the index contracted from 97 to 96 in industry. The construction index has benefitted from a revival of activity in new construction since May 2025 and has thus returned to its long-term average (100) for the past two months (it had been below this average between September 2024 and April 2025).
Business climate: the improvement continues. The economic sentiment index has been improving for two months, reaching 98.6 in June (+0.2 points m/m). The indicator for industry remains weak but is back to its highest level in 13 months, with production and hiring expectations for the coming months improving. Industrial production rose year-on-year (+0.1%), the first increase since January 2023. In the services sector, the indicator rose sharply (+0.7 points).
Business climate: favourable, but slightly weaker. In June, the economic sentiment index remained above its long-term average and that of the Eurozone, but weakened for the second consecutive month (102; -1.4 points m/m). The indicator for industry fell by 1.2 points due to a deterioration in production and order books. Industrial companies' expectations for production in the coming months reached their lowest level since February 2021, reflecting a deterioration in the outlook.
Business sentiment improves in all sectors: The composite PMI index rises in June (+1.7 points, to 52), driven by both services (+1.9 points, to 52.8) and industry (+1.3 points, to 47.7). The trade agreement with the United States has reduced uncertainty among businesses, leading to the start of a recovery in export orders (+3 points, to 46.2).
Improvement in the ISM. The manufacturing ISM improved modestly (49.0, +0.5 pp) in June, with a notable jump in output (50.3, +4.9 pp), which entered expansion territory for the first time since February. The non-manufacturing ISM returned to growth territory (50.8, +0.9 pp) thanks to a rebound in activity and new orders. The CEO Economic Outlook declined again in Q2, reaching a five-year low (69.3, -14.7 points). The three components assessed (plans for capital investment, plans for U.S. employment, and expectations for sales) have all fallen.
Favourable developments for the business climate. The manufacturing PMI stood at 50.1 in June (+0.7 pp, the first expansion posted since May 2024) thanks to growth in output (51.2, +2.5 pp). The services sector also improved (51.7, +0.7 pp). In Q2, the Tankan business conditions survey remained stable overall (15) for both the manufacturing (7) and non-manufacturing (21) sectors, despite the issue of US tariffs.
Trade truce. The official PMI for the manufacturing sector has been in contraction territory since April, mainly due to the US-China trade war and worsening export prospects. However, the index rose slightly from 49 to 49.5 in May and 49.7 in June, following the agreement reached between Washington and Beijing (after discussions in London in early May and in Geneva in early June). The Caixin manufacturing PMI even rose above 50 in June (vs. 48.3 in May). In the services sector, the official PMI has been close to 50.3 for the past three months.
Each year, summer is bookended by two landmark central banking conferences where central bankers, academics and a few members of the private financial sector congregate to discuss new research of interest for monetary policy and compare notes on the outlook: in late June, the ECB Forum held in the windy coastal town of Sintra, Portugal; and in late August in the scenic Rocky Mountains valley of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This year, the Sintra winds were blustery and relentless, but the discussions as calm, focused and insightful as ever, an apt metaphor for central bankers’ condition these days. Some key takeaways.
Key figures for the French economy compared with those of the main European countries, analysis of data on the population and the French labour market, activity by sector, publication administration figures, inflation, credit and interest rates, corporate and household accounts.
The economic news and highlights of recent days selected by the economists of the Economic Research.
The rise in interest rates seen in the advanced economies since the end of Covid has been continuing in scattered order. Long-term interest rates have generally been on the rise, but with significant divergences. The general situation of uncertainty and the undeniably upward trajectories of public debt in advanced countries are having negative repercussions on the bond markets, which are likely to have a similar impact on the financing of the economy.
