Europe’s vulnerability to the gas market has changed in recent years. Whilst its reliance on imports has remained stable, its gas supply has been more vulnerable to global market conditions since 2022, due to a shift in the composition of its imports. Furthermore, in 2026, the combination of high geopolitical risk in one of the main production regions and the pressure of climate change on European consumers has created an unprecedented situation, leading to price pressures and significant uncertainty regarding the short-term outlook. Even if they ease, tensions in the European gas market could persist beyond the winter, largely due to the need to refill inventories.
When we talk about tokenised finance, we think of blockchain. More broadly, we refer to DLT (Distributed Ledger Technology) : a digital ledger shared amongst several participants and secured by cryptography, of which blockchain is the best-known form. Once validated, an entry becomes virtually unalterable, making transactions traceable. A digital token represents an asset or a right (bond, share, monetary claim) and circulates within this ledger.The novelty does not lie in digitisation: finance is already largely digital, but compartmentalised into ledgers specific to each participant.
Eurozone growth continues to prove resilient, notwithstanding the volatility of the Irish figures. The Q3 data reinforce our forecast of 1.1% growth this year, which could even be slightly exceeded, as German and Spanish momentum shows no sign of fading. In France, the negative surprise (-0.1% q/q against a consensus of +0.1% q/q) stems from a new one-off factor (the sharp fall in aerospace output caused by delays in input deliveries) and masks an encouraging rebound in household consumption. In the United States, growth reached its highest level since Q2 2025 (0.8% q/q), driven by buoyant private domestic demand.
As expected, the Fed, the ECB, and the BoJ left their rates unchanged this week. This pause, however, does not mark the end of the cycle. The ECB’s tone is becoming more balanced, weighing inflationary risks against tightening financial conditions, but one final rate hike in December remains our base case. Across the Atlantic, Kevin Warsh describes an environment conducive to further tightening, while remaining cautious about the risk of a credit shock. In Japan, the lasting exit from the deflationary cycle is taking shape, and monetary policy adjustment is expected to continue gradually. We anticipate two rate hikes by the Fed by January and four by the BoJ by the second half of 2028.
European households are now facing a new energy shock, following that of 2022. Since the start of the year, Eurozone inflation has climbed from 1.9% y/y in February to 3.8% in September. Energy is the main driver, in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East. The shock is feeding straight through to consumer prices, mainly via fuel and gas prices.
Growth looks to have held up in Q3 despite successive shocks, as it did in 2025 and H1 2026. A longer Middle East conflict has fed into more persistent inflation; drought has worsened in many countries, and interest rates have risen further – at the short end, with both the ECB and the Fed raising policy rates in September, and even more at the long end. However, our nowcasts show that growth is bending without breaking in most advanced economies.
Rising energy prices are pushing inflation higher in Europe and the United States, while energy’s contribution is slightly negative in Japan. Over recent months (3m/3m), core indices have been firming in the euro area and Japan: a signal to watch. In Europe and Japan, pressure on producer prices is building. The risk of the energy shock spilling over to other CPI items is increasing. Markets (swaps) are pricing this rise in inflation into short-term measures. Long-term expectations (5y5y) are rising in Japan and the UK.
The September PMI surveys confirm that growth in the Eurozone is getting stronger, boosted in particular by new export orders, which are still rising. Sectors that were already performing well – technology and capital goods (including for defence) – are continuing to grow, while those that had been struggling until now – aeronautics, consumer goods and financial services – are seeing their production indices recover. This strong performance is particularly noteworthy, given that it has not yet been undermined by higher inflation.
In 2026, the European economy will not perform better than it did in 2025. At 1.4% (IMF estimate), its growth remains half as fast as in the United States. Still, there are more and more signs that Europe is regaining strength. The energy crisis, which has now been ongoing for eight months, would have caused it to halt in other times. Beneath an apparent sluggish activity, productivity is rebounding, while many sectors are picking up steam.
Since June 2026, the ECB has been publishing a new indicator that helps to assess the transmission of its monetary policy to the economy: the Broad Intermediation Gauge (ECB-BIG). This new tool has revealed that, thus far, strong credit growth has limited the restrictive impact of tightening financial conditions caused by rising interest rates in the Eurozone. However, this offsetting effect is beginning to fade.
GDP growth is proving more resilient to shocks than anticipated. Second-quarter figures confirm this trend: despite rising oil prices, growth remains supported by various reflationary forces. At the heart of this cycle lies a clear driver: Artificial Intelligence (AI). Consequently, major global economies are ramping up investment in capital goods.
On 8 and 9 October, the European Commissioner for Trade and Security, Maroš Šefcovic, will visit Beijing. The European Union’s trade deficit with China on manufactured goods stands at EUR 400 billion over a twelve-month period, driven by a surge in imports. That said, as a proportion of GDP, it is below its 2022 peak (2.1% compared with 2.5%). Furthermore, the aggregate figure masks contrasting realities: 1) with the exception of the automotive sector and Germany, exports are holding up, including service exports; 2) the loss of the Chinese market has been largely offset by third markets; and 3) the real challenge lies in the move upmarket of products imported from China
The overall picture from the confidence surveys available for September is globally positive. According to the PMIs, the business climate in services has indeed seen a clear improvement, and that in the manufacturing sector remains comfortably in expansion territory for the 8th month in a row. However, household confidence has recorded its first decline in 5 months, likely driven by rising inflation and concerns over purchasing power.
In Europe, the possibility of a US ban on diesel exports has heightened concerns about price trends for this widely used fuel, which has already risen significantly since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. It has become a major political issue on both sides of the Atlantic in the run-up to decisive elections.
Growth was stronger than expected in Q2 and is set to strengthen further in the coming quarters. According to our forecasts, it will reach 1.5% in 2027 after 1.1% in 2026. This growth is expected to be driven by investment and its knock-on effect on exports. On an annual average basis, inflation is expected to stand at 3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027, peaking at the end of 2026. The ECB is expected to continue its monetary tightening. At this stage, a single further rate rise, aimed at keeping inflation expectations anchored, is expected in December. The impact of rising interest rates (key policy rates and market rates) on public finances and private sector borrowing conditions will be worth monitoring.
A pillar of the NextGenerationEU programme, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) will expire on December 31, 2026. As of the end of August 2026, slightly more than three-quarters of the total budget had been disbursed (EUR 440 billion out of EUR 573 billion). Disbursing the remaining quarter (EUR 133 billion) by the end of the year will require a significant increase compared with the historical pace (EUR 90 billion per year). The goal of channeling these funds toward productive investment appears to have been achieved.
In the Eurozone, the overall picture from the data available for August is positive in terms of confidence surveys and reinforces the encouraging signs seen in previous months. According to PMI surveys, inflationary pressures continue to ease, while supply-side tensions have stabilised. Business sentiment in the services sector remains stable, anchoring its previous gains, while confidence in the manufacturing sector shows a further—and marked—improvement. Another notable and encouraging development is the recovery in consumer confidence for the fourth consecutive month.
The assessment of the July data is positive and reinforces the encouraging signals from May and June data. According to PMI business climate surveys, price pressures continued to ease, as did supply tensions through slightly shorter delivery times. The business climate in the manufacturing sector resumed improving, almost erasing the two months of previous decline. The business climate in the services sector and consumer confidence continues to recover. The July surveys are not impacted by the resurgence of tensions in the Middle East and by the ensuing rise in energy prices, partly because responses were, for the most part, collected beforehand. A relapse in August is highly likely if the geopolitical situation remains degraded
In advanced economies, June inflation declined temporarily but bounced back in July, reflecting the moves in energy prices. Forward indicators of price pressures eased again in July. Long-term inflation expectations held steady as near-term expectations pulled back (UK excepted). At this stage, there is no sign of a wage-price spiral. In emerging economies, average CPI inflation fell back slightly in June after three months of increase. As for commodities, we see a broad-based rebound as tensions resurface.
When we compare the impact on economic activity of the current energy shock with that of 2022 (following the conflict in Ukraine), the favorable point in 2026, for the euro area, is the business climate in the manufacturing sector, which is holding up better than in 2022. Consumer confidence has fallen sharply but to a lesser extent in 2026 than in 2022. As for the deterioration in the business climate in the services sector, it was immediate in 2026, whereas it occurred with a few months' delay in 2022. The assessment of the June data is positive and reinforces the encouraging signals from May data.
The assessment of the available data for May is rather positive. Granted, inflation keeps rising, but the contribution of the "energy" component remains dominant. Confidence enjoys a respite: business confidence in services and consumer confidence are sources of good news.
As expected, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. This decision, taken unanimously, reflects the Governing Council's conviction that the persistence of the energy shock warrants a monetary policy response. The ECB revised its inflation outlook upward more significantly than its growth forecasts downward. It also updated its alternative scenarios relative to the central scenario (one more favorable, two adverse). Christine Lagarde emphasized that today's decision was "robust" across all scenarios.
Out of the spotlight, Europe is quietly preparing to emerge from its post-pandemic underwater years like a nymph turns into a stunning dragonfly. The turmoil of the last year and a half has brought about “Europe’s moment” in more ways than is being recognized. Europe isn’t just emerging as the alternative safe haven of choice. It can count on five powerful boosters: rebounding industrial strength, established services dominance, tech acceleration, a governance sea-change, and favorable geopolitical winds.
Advanced economies proved resilient in 2025 despite a tariff shock that disrupted global trade. By early 2026, they were on track for faster growth and lower inflation. A fresh shock linked to the war in the Middle East, however, is reigniting inflation while slowing growth. This mix primarily reflects the impact of a likely decline in purchasing power on consumer spending. However, many of the factors that underpinned 2025 growth — AI development, higher defense spending (especially in Europe), and continued trade growth — are set to persist in 2026. They would be reinforced by an acceleration of electrification, against a backdrop of rising oil prices and an AI-driven rise in electricity demand.
Energy transition, reindustrialisation, digital transition, innovation, defence: these strategic priorities require annual funding flows far greater than those historically seen in the European Union (EU). The consultation conducted by the European Commission on the competitiveness of the banking sector, which concluded on 19 April, highlights the need for a banking system that can finance these ambitions.
