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Italy

Italy: growth is up but significant fiscal imbalances remain
07/18/2024 • By Lucie BARETTE

The Italian economy has seen strong recovery since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Since 2021, its annual growth has far exceeded that recorded on average in the eurozone, thanks to the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies, which have buoyed consumption and investment, and the gradual recovery of tourism. Since the beginning of 2023 however, economic activity has started to moderate, due to an unfavourable international environment and the gradual abolition of these fiscal measures. In addition, the latter have, by their very nature, impacted the State's public finances, placing the country under the European Commission's excessive deficit procedure (EDP) in June 2024.

France

France: Economic weight of corporate bankruptcies: high levels to be put into perspective
06/25/2024 • By Thomas HUMBLOT

Like their number, the economic weight of corporate bankruptcies has increased to an unprecedented extent since March 2022, starting from an all-time low in 2021. This ratio compares the outstanding amount of bank loans to newly bankrupt corporates to the total outstanding amount of bank loans to corporates (in difficulty or not). These developments are mainly due to the continued catch-up of corporate bankruptcies. This concerns more fragile corporates whose would have already gone bankrupt in the absence of the economic and health measures put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the repayment of State-Guaranteed Loans does not seem to have an excessive impact on the financial situation of the majority of corporates that have benefited from them

France

A brief history of self-employment in France
06/07/2024 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

After a long period of decline from the late 1940s to the early 2000s, self-employment has been on the rise once again in France for almost 20 years. This resurgence of self-employment, initiated by tax incentives in favour of home-based employment or craft industries (non-market services, domestic services, building crafts), was also fuelled by the outsourcing by companies of certain tasks (for the purpose of controlling costs on non-essential activities, incubating innovation) and the emergence of new needs (in particular in terms of maintenance and renovation in building)

United States

United States: Housing market developments amid monetary tightening
06/06/2024 • By Anis BENSAIDANI

The massive monetary tightening policy undertaken by the Federal Reserve, starting in March 2022, in order to combat soaring inflation, has driven up mortgage interest rates. This sharp uptick in rates has in turn led to a significant deterioration in demand metrics of the US residential real estate market (notably mortgage applications and existing home sales).Nevertheless, the buoyancy of the US economy at the aggregate level and the healthy financial situation of households have prevented the housing crisis from turning into a systemic crisis. The surge in mortgage rates has also affected the existing home supply, prompting a lock-in effect which has led to an unprecedented divergence between new and existing home sales, which was although insufficient to support the whole market.

European Union

European Union: from trade deficit to surplus

04/26/2024 • By Guillaume DERRIEN

After two years of deficit, the EU trade balance returned to positive territory in 2023, supported in particular by falling energy prices. Trade surplus in traditionally buoyant sectors (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically high levels. China’s ramp-up to higher value-added sectors has, over the years, led to a deterioration in the EU’s trade balance with the country. Among other things, imports of motor vehicles from China tripled between 2019 and 2023.

European union

Business insolvencies in Europe: diverging trends
04/05/2024 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

Our Western Europe business insolvencies index has risen above its pre-COVID level. However, it is still far below the peaks seen after the 2008 crisis and during the eurozone crisis (between 2011 and 2015). In most countries, the business insolvencies level is now higher than it was before the pandemic. This has been the case since 2022 for the UK and Sweden, which were joined by France, Belgium and Germany during 2023. However, in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, the insolvency levels are still far below their pre-COVID peaks. These diverging evolutions are also being reflected in sectors, with sharper deterioration in construction, trade and real estate agencies in the countries that have suffered the steepest decline in business activity.

France

FRENCH TRADE BALANCE: 2023 REVIEW AND 2024–2025 PROJECTIONS
03/28/2024 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

In terms of the trade balance, 2023 largely unwound the problems of 2022, which, with itsburdens and shocks, constituted an annus horribilis for French foreign trade.

France

NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATIONS: PRODUCTION TAXES STILL ACCOUNT FOR 2.6% OF FRENCH GDP
03/21/2024 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

Since 2022, the French government has reduced several types of production tax. This is the case for tax based on corporate value added (CVAE), which was reduced gradually in 2021 and 2023, and will continue to be phased out in 2024, this process coming to an end in 2027.

Canada

Canada: Running low on fuel
03/19/2024 • By Anis BENSAIDANI

Canada has experienced sluggish economic growth in 2023, owing to rising prices and higher credit costs, which had a direct impact on the investment and consumption channels, despite the benefits of the country’s growing population. Furthermore, one cannot expect a significant improvement over the short run. Canadian households are amongst the most indebted in the world. Admittedly, their level of net wealth contributes to offset this fact, but it still implies an increased vulnerability against the backdrop of monetary tightening and a deteriorating labour market

United States

“Lenders of next-to-last resort”: too big a role for the Federal Home Loan Banks?
01/19/2024 • By Céline CHOULET

On the margins of discussions about banking regulation and supervision, the role played by the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) prior to the bank run in Spring 2023 is bitterly disputed. Seeking to correct the distortions resulting from their status and refocus the FHLBs on their main mission, their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), has proposed several areas of reform.However, limiting the FHLBs’ capacity to support bank liquidity could have significant effects on the money markets and structurally increase banks’ requirements for central bank money.

European union

Europe: less widespread but still meaningful labour shortages
11/22/2023 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

The momentum of private payroll employment has recently slowed in the euro area, as evidenced by job destruction in France and Germany in Q3. This destruction can be partly explained by cyclical sectors, particularly construction. It is a sign that demand constraints are increasingly impacting companies and the labour market.However, labour shortages remain high in the northern countries of the euro area and in Central Europe and, in general, in sectors where demand is not falling (aeronautics and building renovation in particular). Beyond an economic slowdown, which we expect to last until spring 2024, impacting employment, the low level of unemployment and historically high labour shortages should continue to characterise the European economy.

Global

Greenflation: how inflationary is the energy transition?

08/28/2023 • By Hélène BAUDCHON

Greenflation most often refers to inflation linked to public and private policies implemented as part of the green transition. Adapting production methods to low-carbon technologies, which emit fewer greenhouse gases, will require, on the one hand, massive and costly investments which will increase the marginal cost of each unit produced in the short term and, on the other hand, the use of rarer and therefore more expensive materials. This will create upward pressure on prices. The ecological transition will also require putting the “price signal” into play: increase the price of fossil fuels through taxation (carbon tax) and emission allowance markets (explicit price) as well as regulations (implicit price)

United Kingdom

United Kingdom: Has Brexit truly made the UK less attractive economically?

06/15/2023 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

It is generally assumed that Brexit has made the United Kingdom less attractive economically. However, data on the balance of payments and foreign workers reveal that it’s not as simple as that.Granted, as recently as March 2023, one UK company out of four ranked Brexit as one of its top three concerns. While that number had fallen since 2019, it does show that concerns have not disappeared entirely.Real business investment (both foreign and domestic) in the UK was 0.4% lower in the fourth quarter of 2022 than in the second quarter 2016. However, this decline was not driven by weaker foreign direct investment (FDI) by non-residents in the UK, as this does not show up in the data.Brexit has had a more notable impact on workforce flows

Spain

Southern Europe: recovery of the public accounts
05/11/2023 • By Guillaume DERRIEN

Public deficits in Greece, Portugal and, to a lesser extent, Spain, dropped significantly in 2022. According to Eurostat’s preliminary results – published on 21 April – the primary deficit nearly halved in Spain (-2.4% of GDP), it was erased in Greece, while Portugal once again posted a surplus (1.6% of GDP). In Greece and Portugal, the public deficit fell below the 3% GDP limit set by the Growth and Stability Pact, with which they had already realigned between 2016 and 2019. Although down sharply, the deficit in Spain remains significant, at 4.8% of GDP.Better-than-expected growth in activity and employment and high inflation generated strong tax revenues, which more than offset the rise in spending to cushion the inflationary shock

Global

Increase in business insolvencies in Europe: should we be worried?
04/14/2023 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

In Western Europe, in Q4 2022, the number of business insolvencies returned to levels close to those seen at the end of 2019. This increase conceals national disparities. The United Kingdom and Sweden saw it earlier, as weakening growth and tightening of monetary policy occurred earlier in these countries (and more significantly for the United Kingdom) than in the eurozone. In the eurozone, the increase in insolvencies remains partial, but is likely to continue.The situation in the various sectors reflects these differences. As a result, the increase is almost across all sectors in the United Kingdom and Sweden, particularly in construction and even more so in trade.In France, business insolvencies are approaching their pre-Covid levels but are still 6.1% lower in Q1 2023

France

French foreign trade: hindered by deterioration in three areas
03/03/2023 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

In 2022, the contribution of French foreign trade to GDP growth was one of the most negative in its history (-0.8 percentage points), hindered by deterioration in three areas.

United States

Slowdown in the labour market and recession
02/10/2023 •

While the US labour market has been very tight since the 2021 economic recovery, first signs of a slowdown are emerging. The extent of this slowdown will be key to ensuring the expected disinflation and the gradual return to price stability.

Germany

Chinese-German trade: increasing dependence

01/12/2023 •

Since 2016 China has become Germany’s main trading partner. German imports from China account for almost 12% of Germany’s total trade, and exports account for 8%. Overall, trade with China now accounts for almost 20% of total German trade.While Germany's trade deficit with China has always been relatively modest in the past, it has widened substantially since the start of 2021.Germany, which has a particularly high level of industrial production, has a significant degree of dependence on China for imports of strategic inputs, particularly in relation to its supply of rare earths. The key German industries are also dependent on Chinese domestic demand, because on average around 20% of their sales are made there, and this proportion is continuing to increase

France

A 2023 budget facing moderate uncertainties
12/01/2022 • By Stéphane COLLIAC

The downside risks are increasing for French growth, to the extent that growth could turn out to be lower than the level incorporated by the government in its draft budget bill. For 2023 we estimate that growth could be 1 pp below the government’s assumed figure and that this is likely to imply a limited gap between a deficit of 5.4% of GDP at budget implementation and a level of 5% of GDP included in the draft budget bill. Indeed, the risks appear to be moderate in nature, between a deterioration in the labour market which is expected to remain relatively limited and a cyclical rise in business insolvencies, but at a level which should remain below that of 2019. Moreover, the support of public finances, in particular for purchasing power, remains substantial.

United Kingdom

UK: Foreign trade declines due to Brexit
11/30/2022 •

The United Kingdom’s exit from the European single market and the customs union on 31 January 2020 caused a significant economic shock which has had an adverse impact on growth and inflation in the UK, particularly on foreign trade. Since 1st January 2021 and the coming into effect of the post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), bilateral trade in goods between the United Kingdom and the European Union has fallen sharply. The United Kingdom has made changes which mean that some of its imported goods now come from countries outside the European Union.

Germany

Revising the PMI to better understand shocks affecting industry

10/18/2022 •

Though the manufacturing PMI is a good indicator for assessing the dynamics of industrial production over a long period, recent constraints on supply have again highlighted a methodological problem in the index linked to the way it takes delivery times into account. The way delivery time are handled by the manufacturing PMI must be differentiated according to type of shock, so that the index can better reflect industrial activity. We propose a method that will detect the presence of a positive demand shock or a negative supply shock. The manufacturing PMI is then rectified according to the shock. It is also possible to recalculate the manufacturing PMI by a principal components analysis (PCA), based on all questions available in the S&P Global survey

Sweden

Can populist forces take power in Sweden?

09/08/2022 •

Cradle of social democracy, Sweden is facing a possible breakthrough of the far right. Only 12 years after entering Parliament, with only 5.7% of the vote, the Sweden Democrats (SD, far right) now threaten traditional political forces. After a campaign marked by debates on crime in Sweden, on 11 September, the current government coalition led by the Swedish Social Democratic Party could fail to secure a third consecutive term, following on from its wins in 2014 and 2018

Germany

A mixed bag for pay rises in 2022
07/20/2022 •

After 2021, a year when wage negotiations were difficult against a backdrop of a fragile and uneven economic recovery, wage increases should be much higher in 2022 but insufficient to compensate workers for high inflation. The country’s most powerful union, IG Metall, has obtained a wage increase which has not been seen in the metalworking sector for 30 years: +6.5%. However, this increase should be put in perspective, since the agreement covers 18 months, bringing the annual growth rate to +4.5% in 2022. Salary negotiations in Germany are still mostly carried out at a centralised level (by industry or sector). The shift in decentralization in the 1990s mainly enabled enterprises to break out of sectoral agreements in exceptional circumstances (e.g

Eurozone

European household account: a turbulent story
06/28/2022 • By Jean-Luc PROUTAT

Once protected by the logic of “whatever the cost”, household purchasing power in Europe is now threatened by inflation. After the pandemic, public policies are being solicited once again to help reduce the loss of purchasing power, albeit without really succeeding. In 2022, the real disposable income of Eurozone households is expected to decline by about 2.5%. Consumption is still rising, but only because the household savings rate is declining, a trend that masks extremely diverse situations.

Indonesia

Weakened by the pandemic, but solid enough to handle new shocks
06/19/2022 • By Johanna MELKA

The Covid-19 pandemic weakened Indonesia’s economy. Two years after the crisis, real GDP has returned to 2019 levels, but the labour market is still weak, the poverty rate is higher than before the crisis and investment remains subdued. According to the World Bank, the pandemic’s lasting impact on education and the labour market will cost the country 0.1 points of its long-term growth potential. Today, Indonesia must deal with a new unfavourable economic environment as commodity prices have dramatically increased due to the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. Although growth is bound to be squeezed by the Ukrainian conflict, Indonesia’s external accounts should remain healthy and inflationary pressures should remain moderate

In EcoFlash, an economist analyses the economic news of a developed country or of an emerging economy, a major event and its implications for the national or regional economy, or an ongoing transformation and its consequences in terms of GDP growth, employment policy, business investment dynamics, foreign trade and national, business and household debt.

Several EcoFlashes also look at the banking economy in order to provide expert insight into a decision or regulation, and its consequences for the local or regional economy.

EcoFlash provides analysis, using graphs and diagrams, of recent economic developments by focusing on all stakeholders (companies, institutions, investors, States, etc.). It looks at current economic and financial problems in all their aspects: economic crises and recessions, monetary policies (conventional and unconventional, in particular the effects of monetary easing or tightening), Government budgetary decisions and their medium- and long-term repercussions, the future of the European Union (Brexit) and the euro zone (new regulations, ECB guidelines, Brexit, etc.), issues linked to the climate and national efforts to combat climate deregulation (COP21, sustainable finance, etc.), the problems of unemployment and the labour market, purchasing power and household consumption, currency policy of monetary authorities (European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, etc.), risks and opportunities for growth and the development of the banking sector, etc.