The conflict in Iran has put an end to the moderation in commodity prices, which had helped to reduce inflation in Europe. This disinflation enabled the ECB to lower its key interest rate, which contributed to the rebound in growth in 2025. The conflict could reverse these trends, with the extent of the reversal depending on the still highly uncertain outcome of the conflict in the coming weeks.
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major driver of US economic growth. More specifically, expectations of sustained productivity gains and strong future profits are fueling the expansion.
The US dollar fell again markedly in the second half of January, particularly against the euro. What does this depreciation, which began in early 2025 and follows a long period of appreciation, reflect? What are its effects on the European economy?
Sub-Saharan Africa has gone through 5 years of shocks that have weakened its public finances between 2020 and 2024. Over this period, public debt has risen rapidly, fuelling concerns across the region.
In the energy sector, the European Union has two objectives: to continue the low-carbon transition in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and to increase its energy sovereignty in a context of rising geopolitical tensions.
On 10 December, the US Federal Reserve surprised everyone by announcing that it would resume expanding its balance sheet on 12 December, just days after it had stopped reducing it. Although it came earlier and was more substantial than expected, the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet should not be viewed as a new phase of quantitative easing, or QE.
With the energy transition in full swing, the European electric vehicle market is at a turning point. After a promising start, it is time to shift into high gear to meet the European Union's climate ambitions. But this acceleration will not be without challenges.
GDP growth reached 0.5% q/q in the third quarter, well above the figures recorded for nearly three years. This outperformance came despite the period of political uncertainty that began in June 2024 and sluggish household consumption.
This is a positive surprise, and it deserves to be highlighted in the current context: according to initial estimates, growth in the Eurozone in the third quarter was higher than expected.
The Mexican government has announced plans to increase customs tariffs. Asian countries in general, and China in particular, are being targeted. The measure is expected to be adopted by Parliament in November before being implemented next January for a period of one year.
The Treasury market is one of the pillars of the global financial system. This is due to its size and liquidity, its role in setting borrowing conditions, and the safety that these securities provide.However, the announcement of so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs last April caused turmoil in the market, reminding us that Treasuries had become more sensitive to periods of stress…
The volatility of oil prices reflects the uncertainties of the international environment. After falling in April following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, oil prices rose by around ten dollars during the 12 days of conflict between Iran and Israel, before falling again since the ceasefire agreement.
Contrary to what was feared at the end of 2024-beginning of 2025, exports of goods of emerging countries held up well in the first part of the year. Asian countries are showing the best performances and Latin American countries are doing well. On the other hand, Central European countries appear, if not as the losers, at least as the most vulnerable to the transformations of global trade since the Covid crisis. For a large majority of EM, corporates’ expectations about their order books in June suggest a decline or slowdown in exports in the coming months.
In the first quarter of 2025, real estate purchasing capacity of households in France continued its recovery, enabling the first rise in property prices in two years.
Not so long ago, money market interest rates were negative in Europe, and the French government could borrow almost for free, even for long maturities...
European energy policy is focused on two objectives: firstly, to progress in the low-carbon transition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and secondly, to increase energy sovereignty by diversifying sources of supply and reducing external dependencies.
The tariff offensive led by Donald Trump since his return to the White House has quickly shifted into a face-off with China. Following a cycle of announcements and retaliation, the extra-tariffs applied by the United States to China amount to 145%, compared to 125% in the opposite direction. The shock is of unprecedented magnitude, and the two superpowers are engaged in a negative-sum game.
Since June 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve has largely reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt as part of its quantitative tightening program, or QT, after having massively expanded them between March 2020 and May 2022, as part of its quantitative easing program, or QE.
The tug of war between the United States and the European Union has begun. On March 12, the US administration raised tariffs on imports of aluminum and steel by 25%. In response, the EU has announced that it will reinstate, in mid-April, tariffs introduced during Donald Trump's first term, suspended since 2020
In recent weeks, with the erratic announcements and implementation of the first Trumponomics 2.0 measures, a less favorable wind has been blowing across the US economy, whether it be Main Street or Wall Street. Between rising fears about inflation and growth, how long can the Fed extend the status quo on its policy rates?
The German elections of 23 February have high stakes. German GDP has been stagnating for three years and production capacity in the manufacturing sector has suffered its first decline since reunification. The question of the relevance of the German territory as a production site (standort deutschland) was again raised. In this context, will these elections open a new era (zeitenwende) in German economic policy, as was the case with the Hartz laws twenty years ago? Two main issues will need to be monitored: the reform of the debt brake and the decrease of energy costs.
In France, we could think that the increase of public debt is a general consequence of the Covid-19 crisis. However, the chart we are commenting here shows that it is not.
2024 was marked by further progress in disinflation, in both the United States and the Eurozone, sufficient to pave the way for rate cuts. However, 2025 may be quite different from 2024, with expected divergent inflation trajectories between the United States and the euro area and, therefore, a decoupling of monetary policies (extended status quo for the Fed, continued gradual rate cuts for the ECB).
The U.S. Foreign Trade is structurally in deficit.In 2023, the deficit in the balance of goods exceeded one trillion dollars, which amounted to 3.8 percent of GDP.While this may be seen as a reflection of the strength of the American consumer, Donald Trump analyzes it as the result of ‘violent treatment’ and ‘abusive practices’ from his trading partners.
For the time being, Donald Trump has not specified his intentions on banking regulation. However, there is a risk that he will push for an incomplete translation of the finalisation of Basel 3 into US law. This would undermine efforts to harmonise international prudential frameworks and introduce significant distortions of competition between US and European banks.
