The volatility of oil prices reflects the uncertainties of the international environment. After falling in April following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal" tariffs, oil prices rose by around ten dollars during the 12 days of conflict between Iran and Israel, before falling again since the ceasefire agreement.
Contrary to what was feared at the end of 2024-beginning of 2025, exports of goods of emerging countries held up well in the first part of the year. Asian countries are showing the best performances and Latin American countries are doing well. On the other hand, Central European countries appear, if not as the losers, at least as the most vulnerable to the transformations of global trade since the Covid crisis. For a large majority of EM, corporates’ expectations about their order books in June suggest a decline or slowdown in exports in the coming months.
In the first quarter of 2025, real estate purchasing capacity of households in France continued its recovery, enabling the first rise in property prices in two years.
Not so long ago, money market interest rates were negative in Europe, and the French government could borrow almost for free, even for long maturities...
European energy policy is focused on two objectives: firstly, to progress in the low-carbon transition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and secondly, to increase energy sovereignty by diversifying sources of supply and reducing external dependencies.
The tariff offensive led by Donald Trump since his return to the White House has quickly shifted into a face-off with China. Following a cycle of announcements and retaliation, the extra-tariffs applied by the United States to China amount to 145%, compared to 125% in the opposite direction. The shock is of unprecedented magnitude, and the two superpowers are engaged in a negative-sum game.
Since June 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve has largely reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury debt as part of its quantitative tightening program, or QT, after having massively expanded them between March 2020 and May 2022, as part of its quantitative easing program, or QE.
The tug of war between the United States and the European Union has begun. On March 12, the US administration raised tariffs on imports of aluminum and steel by 25%. In response, the EU has announced that it will reinstate, in mid-April, tariffs introduced during Donald Trump's first term, suspended since 2020
In recent weeks, with the erratic announcements and implementation of the first Trumponomics 2.0 measures, a less favorable wind has been blowing across the US economy, whether it be Main Street or Wall Street. Between rising fears about inflation and growth, how long can the Fed extend the status quo on its policy rates?
The German elections of 23 February have high stakes. German GDP has been stagnating for three years and production capacity in the manufacturing sector has suffered its first decline since reunification. The question of the relevance of the German territory as a production site (standort deutschland) was again raised. In this context, will these elections open a new era (zeitenwende) in German economic policy, as was the case with the Hartz laws twenty years ago? Two main issues will need to be monitored: the reform of the debt brake and the decrease of energy costs.
In France, we could think that the increase of public debt is a general consequence of the Covid-19 crisis. However, the chart we are commenting here shows that it is not.
2024 was marked by further progress in disinflation, in both the United States and the Eurozone, sufficient to pave the way for rate cuts. However, 2025 may be quite different from 2024, with expected divergent inflation trajectories between the United States and the euro area and, therefore, a decoupling of monetary policies (extended status quo for the Fed, continued gradual rate cuts for the ECB).
The U.S. Foreign Trade is structurally in deficit.In 2023, the deficit in the balance of goods exceeded one trillion dollars, which amounted to 3.8 percent of GDP.While this may be seen as a reflection of the strength of the American consumer, Donald Trump analyzes it as the result of ‘violent treatment’ and ‘abusive practices’ from his trading partners.
For the time being, Donald Trump has not specified his intentions on banking regulation. However, there is a risk that he will push for an incomplete translation of the finalisation of Basel 3 into US law. This would undermine efforts to harmonise international prudential frameworks and introduce significant distortions of competition between US and European banks.
While the German economy continues to underperform and France remains in a middle ground, Southern European countries have become the driving force behind economic momentum in the Eurozone.
The Autumn Budget, unveiled by Rachel Reeves on October 30th, attempts to reconcile fiscal adjustment, support for public services and strengthening of UK’s potential growth.
On the global oil market, we currently have a slightly dynamic demand. China's oil demand in particular which represents around 15% of the global oil demand.
The issue of public finances and their rebalancing has come to the fore, particularly in France, but not only. This problem concerns many other countries, most notably the United States.
Germany and France follow different trajectories in terms of fiscal consolidation. The latter is more involved in Germany, where debt is more moderate. However, this is accompanied by a reduced support for the greening of the economy and a GDP stagnation over the last two years. In France, where public debt is higher, maintaining strong fiscal support has been accompanied by an increase in savings. The literature points out that, in this context, fiscal consolidation based on lower spending could support growth.
In September, the U.S. Federal Reserve at last followed suit with the ECB and the Bank of England and cut its policy rates for the first time since March 2020. But the Fed marked its difference, favoring a significant 50-basis-point cut instead of a more gradual 25. At least on that point, the suspense is over. But the rest of the story has yet to be written.
In the second quarter of 2024, Turkish growth fell below 3% year-on-year for the first time since 2019. On a quarterly basis, GDP even remained stable. Without the positive contribution of foreign trade and inventories, GDP would even have fallen.
Growth and inflation figures in the UK have surprised favourably since the beginning of the year. These results are of course welcome, but they do not reflect a genuine recovery in the economic situation across the Channel.
The Chinese export sector has weathered well the rise in trade tensions and tech rivalry with the US since 2018. The Chinese industry has shown a solid capacity to adapt to the increase in trade barriers and it has kept its leadership position in global trade.
In Central Europe, 5-year government bond yields have broadly toned down since the last peak observed in 2022, amidst acute geopolitical uncertainties.
Human activity is highly dependent on information. What to eat? Which movie to watch? Where to travel? What to study? Where to work? It all depends on information. The same applies to economic activity, where information has a crucial influence on business strategy: which products and services should we provide? Where should we produce them? How should we sell them? What is the marketing strategy? At which price? Et cetera.It also influences economic policy by governments, by central banks, and of course, information has a profound impact on the functioning of financial markets.
