On the global oil market, we currently have a slightly dynamic demand. China's oil demand in particular which represents around 15% of the global oil demand.
Chinese oil demand has been declining since the month of May 2024. This is due to economic factors linked to the economic slowdown and also to structural factors linked to low-carbon transition and to the electrification of the transport sector in particular. Around 45% of new car registrations in China are for electric vehicles, both battery powered or hybrid. On the supply side, in non-OPEC+ countries, production is strongly increasing, that is particularly true for the United States, Canada, Brazil and Guyana. According to the International Energy Agency, this additional production should be superior to the rise in demand in 2025 and should bring down prices. But two elements might upset this central scenario. First, the policy of OPEC+ members, that is to say OPEC members plus Russia, which currently are in an awkward position. They can continue to restrict production after 2024 and lose market shares. Or they can slowly reduce production quotas and run the risk of falling prices. Second, the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East which could make prices reach high levels. The Middle East is a key region as far as oil market is concerned. Countries of the Gulf region represent around one third of global oil production and 27% of oil maritime traffic goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So the global oil market enters into a zone of uncertainty even if the central scenario is that of a moderate decline in prices in 2025.
