The 2022 energy crisis clearly highlighted the issue of electricity prices in Europe – and, more broadly, the issue of energy prices. As a result, European manufacturers’ competitiveness has been severely undermined when compared with the United States and China. By reigniting tensions over electricity prices, the conflict that began in the Middle East in late February 2026 further underscores the continent’s vulnerability to fossil fuel imports, despite the expansion of renewable energy. Faced with an environment of potential sharp and sudden price rises, European governments do not have the same room for manoeuvre.
In 2026, the European economy will not perform better than it did in 2025. At 1.4% (IMF estimate), its growth remains half as fast as in the United States. Still, there are more and more signs that Europe is regaining strength. The energy crisis, which has now been ongoing for eight months, would have caused it to halt in other times. Beneath an apparent sluggish activity, productivity is rebounding, while many sectors are picking up steam.
On 8 and 9 October, the European Commissioner for Trade and Security, Maroš Šefcovic, will visit Beijing. The European Union’s trade deficit with China on manufactured goods stands at EUR 400 billion over a twelve-month period, driven by a surge in imports. That said, as a proportion of GDP, it is below its 2022 peak (2.1% compared with 2.5%). Furthermore, the aggregate figure masks contrasting realities: 1) with the exception of the automotive sector and Germany, exports are holding up, including service exports; 2) the loss of the Chinese market has been largely offset by third markets; and 3) the real challenge lies in the move upmarket of products imported from China
Overall, based on data available through September 2026, economic activity continues to show resilience. The high levels of business climate surveys illustrate this well. Household confidence, however, is more vulnerable and sensitive to energy price pressures. Financing conditions in emerging economies also continue to hold up well against the shock (much better than in 2022) as well as against the tensions in DM bond markets.
In Europe, the possibility of a US ban on diesel exports has heightened concerns about price trends for this widely used fuel, which has already risen significantly since the outbreak of the conflict in Iran. It has become a major political issue on both sides of the Atlantic in the run-up to decisive elections.
A pillar of the NextGenerationEU programme, the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) will expire on December 31, 2026. As of the end of August 2026, slightly more than three-quarters of the total budget had been disbursed (EUR 440 billion out of EUR 573 billion). Disbursing the remaining quarter (EUR 133 billion) by the end of the year will require a significant increase compared with the historical pace (EUR 90 billion per year). The goal of channeling these funds toward productive investment appears to have been achieved.
“Germany is too dependent on the US for its security, on Russia for its energy and on China for its exports.” That was, in essence, Brookings’ Constanze Stelzenmüller’s diagnosis in June 2022, and it was – and is – valid as well for Europe as a whole. But does this dependency also apply to technological and industrial products? The European Commission’s EXternal Vulnerability Index (EXVI) answers that very question, mapping out the EU’s exposure to foreign supply chains.
Both the Eurozone and the US grew 0.4% q/q in Q2 2026. For Europe, that is a welcome upside surprise: growth landed in line with expectations (France, Germany) or above them (Eurozone overall, Spain, Italy), even as the Middle East conflict delivered an energy-driven inflation shock. It confirms that European growth rests on foundations solid enough to absorb this kind of shock. Country-level detail was incomplete on the day, but manufacturing business sentiment held firm across the board in H1, underwritten by a set of drivers (AI, defence, electrification, aerospace). US growth, by contrast, undershot expectations. But it remained robust, powered by AI investment and accelerating household consumption. Both, however, drew in imports fast enough to weaken the headline growth figure.
The share of intra-EU exports in total European exports currently stands at around 62%, a level comparable to that seen in the early 2000s. Behind this apparent stability, however, lies a deep reshuffling of the major blocs that make up the European Union.
In the European Union (EU), the post-Covid period was marked by a significant slowdown in productivity, which contrasts with the dynamic trend observed in the United States. However, there are reasons to put Europe's decline into perspective. Over a twenty-year period, real GDP per hour worked has grown more in the EU-27 than in Japan or the United Kingdom. The lag behind the United States is not continuous, but is linked to periods of crisis during which the US federal government intervened on a massive scale to support private-sector companies. The result is a public finance situation which appears much more favourable in Europe, allowing it to address a challenging future.
In Hungary, Péter Magyar’s pro-European centre-right party won a landslide victory in the general election held on 12 April. According to the latest official estimates, Tisza is reported to have secured a supermajority, which would give it significant room for manoeuvre to drive through institutional reforms. The new government will nevertheless face several challenges, including the release of European funds essential for revitalising the economy, and the consolidation of public finances. Meanwhile, the partnership with China in the field of electric mobility remains a priority.
During her hearing on 18 March 2026 before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Claudia Buch (Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank) highlighted the absence of decline in the quality of bank assets and the stability of non-performing loan ratios. These ratios are a good indirect indicator of the financial health of borrowing corporations in the European Union (EU), particularly in the manufacturing sector. When viewed from this perspective, the proportion of firms in this sector facing severe financial difficulties appears to be lower at the start of 2026 than at the start of 2022. This suggests, by extension, that these firms are in better financial health and have a greater ability to absorb shocks
Market opportunities in China are shrinking dramatically due to the country's shift towards higher-end products and its import substitution policy. 2025 marked an unprecedented turning point in this regard: European exports to China fell by 14% in nominal terms and by 10.2% in volume, as the country's share of total EU exports (7.5%) reached its lowest level in nearly fifteen years.
Following the announcement on 4 March 2025 of a joint plan to invest EUR 800 billion in defence within the European Union (EU) by 2030, Member States have been gearing up for action. One year on, the initial assessment is fairly positive. Promises are being kept and, according to our estimates, EU countries spent nearly EUR 400 billion in 2025, slightly more than expected. Germany, the countries of Northern Europe and those that spent the least (including Spain) have agreed to a significant increase in spending. They are therefore aligning with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that had already implemented this effort (in particular Poland and the Baltic states). Investment represents a growing share of expenditure and R&D is increasing rapidly
Key aspects of European policy, the low carbon transition and energy sovereignty programmes converge on many issues. Rising geopolitical tensions, the European energy crisis of 2022 and heightened international trade tensions have contributed to this convergence. At first glance, it seems obvious: Europe, which is structurally dependent on fossil fuel imports, has an interest in accelerating the decarbonisation of its energy mix in order to reduce its hydrocarbon imports. Nevertheless, the progress of the transition-sovereignty pairing remains a path fraught with obstacles.
Ageing populations, rising long-term interest rates and increased defence spending are adding to the difficulties for public finances across the OECD. While fiscal consolidation – which can be measured by an improvement of the primary balance by at least 3% of GDP in 4 years – is essential for several member states, this is easier said than done. What can we learn from analysing 20 years of European public finance? Historical examples from EU countries show that expenditure-led consolidation can be an effective approach and tends to support stronger growth after it is completed.
Europe is getting better and better. It has not been spared shocks, notably the war in Ukraine – its impact on energy prices is largely responsible for German stagnation – and political uncertainty in France, which affected French GDP growth in 2025. But Europe is overcoming these difficulties. GDP Growth in the Eurozone proved robust, at 1.5%, and 2026 should be a positive year, even more than in 2025. Industry has emerged from recession, buoyed by defence, aeronautics and AI, while households are showing purchasing intentions not seen since February 2022. All these factors will help Europe to continue building its strategic autonomy. The context is favourable and Europe is becoming increasingly credible in the eyes of investors.
The issue of European sovereignty has been on everyone's mind recently. Among its many dimensions, sovereignty in retail digital payments is often cited as an urgent gap to be filled. In fact, two-thirds of digital payments in the Eurozone rely on non-European providers, mainly American. However, this situation is not inevitable, and 2026 could well be the year when a European alternative takes off and reaches critical mass.
Countries will not be able to limit global warming to +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, as was the ambition of the Paris Agreement ten years ago. However, it would be wrong to conclude that it was a failure. Paris was the catalyst in accelerating for the race to decarbonisation, not only in the European Union, but also in China, which is now on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the climate scepticism of its president, Donald Trump, the United States continues to green its electricity production. The scientific consensus is that we must now expand and intensify our efforts, which will come at a cost, but much lower than the cost of the status quo.
There has been remarkably limited interest in Europe at recent international economic and financial gatherings, as if “Europe’s moment”, as ECB President Lagarde dubbed it back in the Spring, has already passed in the eyes of many. Meanwhile, European media outlets have been indulging in negative narratives about political risks, persistent industrial doldrums, and inability to implement reforms that might preserve Europe’s place in a world increasingly dominated by the US and China. And yet, under the radar, a lot of good things have been happening.
Low in fat, high in fibre, with a large proportion of fruit and vegetables: in terms of health, the virtues of the Mediterranean diet are well-established, but what about in economic terms? For the past decade, the countries of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) forming the Mediterranean ‘arc’ (France, Italy, Spain, Greece) have been following a similar diet, aiming to improve their competitiveness. We take a look at this in our Chart of the week.
In its fight against global warming, the European Union is about to take an important step: the launch of the operational phase of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). How will it work? Who will be affected? What will be the economic consequences? These questions (and a few others) are addressed below.
Since the cessation of most Russian gas supplies, reducing Europe's energy vulnerability, and thus improving its economic security, has been a key issue for European decision-makers. However, recent pressure from the United States on Europe to increase its purchases of US hydrocarbons could raise fears of a new significant dependence on US liquefied natural gas (LNG)..
Presidents Trump and Von der Leyen announced yesterday from Scotland that a trade agreement had been reached. Is it a good deal? Political commentators and many editorialists mostly say no. The stock market reaction says yes. Our take: the deal is at the better end of the spectrum of what could realistically be achieved. Importantly, it removes the risk of a trade war escalation in the world’s largest trade relationship, and creates a more predictable environment for firms on both sides of the Atlantic to operate in.
The number of corporate bankruptcies continued to rise in the first quarter of 2025. However, the momentum slowed, and the increase was uneven. Record highs were broken in the United Kingdom, where a slight decline was nevertheless observed. In contrast, the increase remains much more limited in Italy and Germany, where it continues. In France, the figures are high, but the increase has slowed. In terms of business sectors, services, trade, and construction are the most affected, but to varying degrees depending on the country. In contrast, industry appears to be relatively unscathed. An analysis of bank balance sheets, particularly in France, puts the impact of bankruptcies into perspective
