President Lai Ching-te took office on 20 May. He is expected to continue the domestic and foreign policy agenda of his predecessor, in a more tense climate. On the one hand, Beijing could increase its military manoeuvres around the island. On the other hand, Parliament is now dominated by opposition parties, which are expected to slow down or block many government projects. The new administration will at least be able to count on a favourable economic situation to start its mandate. Economic growth has been accelerating over the past year, driven by the rebound in the global electronics cycle
Taiwanese economic activity has slowed sharply since spring 2022. The island is particularly vulnerable to weakening global demand and the downturn in the electronics cycle due to its dependence on semiconductor exports. At the same time, its position as a quasi-monopoly on the most sophisticated microprocessor market probably protects it against the threat of Chinese aggression, at least in the short term. From a strictly macroeconomic point of view, Taiwan has solid fundamentals – and in particular a very comfortable external financial position – that strengthen its ability to withstand external shocks.
The Taiwanese economy has been very resilient to the multiple external shocks of the past two years. The export sector has benefited greatly from the rise in global demand for high-tech goods. In addition, domestic demand has benefited from fiscal support and an accommodative monetary policy. In 2022, economic growth is constrained by many factors (the wave of Omicron in the spring, supply disruptions linked to the chaotic situation in China, rising inflation and monetary policy tightening, and a less favourable international environment). The economic growth slowdown may lead only to a limited deterioration in the quality of bank loans. Nevertheless, the real estate sector, after a sharp rise in prices since 2019, could see a correction.
Taiwan’s export sector has been hit by the slowdown in trade between China and the United States since spring 2018, but it has also benefited rapidly from some of the positive effects of the trade war. US importers have replaced certain Chinese products with goods purchased directly from Taiwan. Plus the US-China trade war provides Taiwanese manufacturing corporates an incentive to leave Mainland China and relocate production in Taiwan, with firm government support. Thanks to these developments, Taiwan’s economy reported stronger than expected growth in 2019, and this trend should continue in 2020.
Taiwan is a very open economy, which enjoys a solid industrial export base and an exceptionally strong external financial position. Its average real GDP growth slowed to 2.8% per year in 2011-2019 from 5.6% in 2003-2007, but dynamics have reversed since 2020. Covid shock was well managed; real GDP grew by 3.1% in 2020, and neither external nor public accounts deteriorated. Instead, Taiwan took advantage of the surge in global demand for tech products. Moreover, its medium-term economic prospects have improved in the last few years thanks to an steady increase in investment, the government’s measures aimed at improving the island’s competitiveness and solid export prospects. Taiwan could benefit from the relocation of some production units away from mainland China to the island, as Taiwanese enterprises – strongly encouraged by the authorities – are changing their output strategy in response to the US tariff hikes on Chinese imports and rising labour costs in China.
Tensions with mainland China have worsened since the election of President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in 2016. President Tsai was re-elected in January 2020 and the DPP has maintained a majority in Parliament. Difficult relations with the mainland are leading to Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation, hampering its relations with other countries and representing a permanent downside risk on its economic prospects and stability.
