At a time when Chinese consumption is slowing significantly, could India become a driver of global consumption? For now, this prospect presents considerable difficulties, with many obstacles to overcome. Despite dynamic growth and the Indian economy’s expanding share of global output (8.2% of worldwide GDP in 2025), the middle-class consumer population remains modest and is nowhere near the size of China’s. This is due to the concentration of employment in low-value-added and largely informal sectors
China has never exported as much as it does now, and its trade surplus has never been higher. At the same time, its economic growth is slowing, held back by weak domestic demand. The imbalances in China’s growth model, and the external imbalances they give rise to, are therefore continuing to worsen. With Europe taking a tougher line and the United States, with which China shares nothing more than ‘strategic stability’, the standoff looks set to continue. However, the European Union and China would have a great deal to lose from a lasting deterioration in their relationship. It is in the interests of both parties to seek to restore the balance. To this end, it is important to understand Beijing’s objectives and the constraints facing China
Growth looks to have held up in Q3 despite successive shocks, as it did in 2025 and H1 2026. A longer Middle East conflict has fed into more persistent inflation; drought has worsened in many countries, and interest rates have risen further – at the short end, with both the ECB and the Fed raising policy rates in September, and even more at the long end. However, our nowcasts show that growth is bending without breaking in most advanced economies.
Business creations rose by 12% y/y over the first eight months of 2026. This is significantly higher than the 5.3% y/y growth recorded in 2025. This increase was driven by sectors linked to information and communication technologies.
Eco Charts | Business creations and bankruptcies is a new publication aimed at providing an overview of the dynamics of business creations and bankruptcies in France, as well as the risks associated with the latter. We will publish regular updates to this publication on a quarterly basis.
Among emerging markets, Argentina and Türkiye stand out for their particularly high consumer price inflation, currently standing at around 30% year-on-year in both countries. However, the monthly increase rate has fallen sharply – from around 8% in Argentina and 4% in Türkiye on average in 2023 to around 2% for both countries during the summer of 2026. The economic policy strategies adopted by governments and monetary authorities to bring inflation under control are very different. However, their consequences are too, and they are not positive for Argentina.
Due to robust economic growth, India’s contribution to global GDP has increased by 1.8 times over the past twenty years, reaching 8.2% in 2025. However, this achievement conceals a significant issue: India is failing to develop a substantial, consumer-driven middle class. The underlying cause is the predominance of employment in low-value-added and largely informal sectors. The few high-value-added manufacturing sectors with strong job potential such as electrical equipment, electronics, automotive, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, are hindered by an unfavourable business environment, while a skills shortage is obstructing their advancement up the value chain. Furthermore, the highest-paying service jobs, particularly in IT, are threatened by artificial intelligence.
In June 2026, corporate creations cumulated over one year remained dynamic, reaching a historic peak according to INSEE, with 1,233,123 corporates set up, representing a 11.1% year-on-year increase. This momentum is not a recent phenomenon, as corporate creations have doubled over the last decade. During this same period, the rise in bankruptcies has been ten times lower, which serves to put current levels (approximately 70,000 bankruptcies cumulated over one year in March 2026) into perspective. Historically, the peaks and troughs in corporate bankruptcies are following those of corporate creations, with an average lag of 24 to 36 months
In the years following the pandemic, labour productivity in Italy has stalled. Artificial intelligence is identified as a potential catalyst for reversing this trend, with projections indicating possible annual productivity growth increases of up to 1.1 p.p. in a scenario of rapid adoption. However, the actual adoption of AI in Italy is still low, despite a faster growth rate compared with its main Euro area counterparts. As of 2025, only 16.4% of Italian companies with more than 10 employees were using AI. In the financial and insurance sectors, adoption rates are above average (39%, peaking at 70% in insurance)
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Out of the spotlight, Europe is quietly preparing to emerge from its post-pandemic underwater years like a nymph turns into a stunning dragonfly. The turmoil of the last year and a half has brought about “Europe’s moment” in more ways than is being recognized. Europe isn’t just emerging as the alternative safe haven of choice. It can count on five powerful boosters: rebounding industrial strength, established services dominance, tech acceleration, a governance sea-change, and favorable geopolitical winds.
Advanced economies proved resilient in 2025 despite a tariff shock that disrupted global trade. By early 2026, they were on track for faster growth and lower inflation. A fresh shock linked to the war in the Middle East, however, is reigniting inflation while slowing growth. This mix primarily reflects the impact of a likely decline in purchasing power on consumer spending. However, many of the factors that underpinned 2025 growth — AI development, higher defense spending (especially in Europe), and continued trade growth — are set to persist in 2026. They would be reinforced by an acceleration of electrification, against a backdrop of rising oil prices and an AI-driven rise in electricity demand.
It’s a major trend, one that can be observed all over the world: since the early 1970s, the average number of children per woman, the ‘fertility rate’, has been falling almost continuously.
The outperformance of US growth is underpinned by productivity gains that are significantly higher than those of the previous decade. This acceleration is due more to the spillover effects of past investments and post-pandemic changes (such as remote working) than to artificial intelligence (AI). The roll-out of AI is too recent for productivity gains to have already made their mark at the macroeconomic level. In the medium term, however, AI is expected to support the upward trend.
The Eurozone is experiencing rapid population ageing, which, at first glance, does not inspire much optimism regarding its growth prospects. However, the decline in its working-age population can be countered by effective migration policies (as seen in Italy and Spain), as well as by an increase in labour force participation rates. Furthermore, much will depend on a recovery in productivity, which experienced a sudden stop following the Covid-19 pandemic.
Most developed countries are ageing rapidly. According to the United Nations population database, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the group of “more developed countries” is projected to rise from 21.5% in 2026 to 32.3% by 2100. There are however significant differences between countries. Such increases pose a threat to social security systems. Without any specific reforms, pension and healthcare spending will rise while contributions from the shrinking working-age population will decline. Which countries are financially most vulnerable to ageing? We analysed this question for 16 developed countries using five ratios in our ageing vulnerability index.
During her hearing on 18 March 2026 before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, Claudia Buch (Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank) highlighted the absence of decline in the quality of bank assets and the stability of non-performing loan ratios. These ratios are a good indirect indicator of the financial health of borrowing corporations in the European Union (EU), particularly in the manufacturing sector. When viewed from this perspective, the proportion of firms in this sector facing severe financial difficulties appears to be lower at the start of 2026 than at the start of 2022. This suggests, by extension, that these firms are in better financial health and have a greater ability to absorb shocks
For several years, Central Europe has been facing a marked demographic decline. Its magnitude varies from one country to another. The total population decline from 2004 to 2025 ranges from -0.3% in Slovakia to -17.2% in Bulgaria. The Czech Republic is the only country in the region to have seen a population increase over the same period. The working-age population (ages 15–64) is also declining. However, the situation is less unfavourable in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, while Romania and Bulgaria are experiencing a more significant decline due to migration patterns. Net migration flows were negative for Bulgaria until 2019 and for Romania until 2021. However, this trend has reversed in recent years
Although artificial intelligence (AI) has been around for a long time, its widespread use in the world of work, particularly in the service sector, is a new phenomenon that raises many questions. Which sectors or professions will be affected? Which others will benefit? Will the expected productivity gains materialise? Observing trends in the United States, where it all began, already provides some answers.
Central Europe: Economic growth accelerated slightly to 2.3% for 2025 as a whole - Asia: In 2025, economic growth weathered the rise in US tariffs much better than expected - North Africa/Middle East: The economies of saw a rebound in growth in 2025 - Sub-Saharan Africa: The economic outlook for the region has been positively adjusted in recent months - Latin American: In 2025 these countries experienced slower growth
Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major driver of US economic growth. More specifically, expectations of sustained productivity gains and strong future profits are fueling the expansion.
