L’amélioration concerne à la fois les services, l’industrie manufacturière et le commerce de détail automobile. Le bâtiment fait exception, dans un contexte de repli de l’activité dans le logement neuf. Les tensions inflationnistes devraient se renforcer dans le commerce de détail.
The improvement is evident in the services sector, manufacturing industry and in the automotive retail trade. However, the construction sector is an exception, against a backdrop of a downturn in activity in new housing. Inflationary pressures are expected to increase in the retail sector.
According to our estimate, the trade deficit (goods) reached almost EUR 160 billion in 2022, after 85 billion in 2021. This sharp deterioration is mainly due to the rise in the prices of French energy imports, including oil. However, it seems that the balance on manufactured goods has also continued to deteriorate, including when viewed in terms of volume.
GDP growth surprisingly increased in the 4th quarter, reaching +0.1% q/q (after +0.2% q/q in the 3rd quarter), compared with -0.2% based on our forecast. Corporate investment was one of the factors behind this relative resilience, with a further rise of 1.2% q/q (having already grown by 3.8% q/q in the 3rd quarter). Conversely, consumer spending was undoubtedly the weak link in demand, with a drop of 0.9% q/q.
