The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research
Inflation slowed on both sides of the Atlantic in March, mainly due to the fall in energy prices. This was helped by the fall in gas and oil prices in the first quarter of 2025. In the United States, however, the situation remains worrying, with household inflation expectations at their highest level for over 30 years (University of Michigan survey); they are also rising in the United Kingdom against a backdrop of still robust wage growth. The situation is much more comfortable in the Eurozone, where inflation expectations remain moderate and wages are decelerating, reinforcing the 2% target. In Japan, the situation remains under control.
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For several years now, Italy has had to generate primary budget surpluses in order to stabilize its public debt. The current level of fiscal deficits and the foreseeable increase in interest payments are likely to put the United States, the United Kingdom, and France in a similar situation in the coming years. These countries will ultimately have to balance their primary budgets if they want to stabilize their public debt.
The announcements on April 2, featuring a massive and widespread (albeit differentiated by country) increase in US tariffs, constitute a historic shock. The final extent of the damage and the aftershocks remain to be seen, but there is no doubt that the economic consequences will be negative, starting with the United States. They are already evident in the turbulence on US financial markets. Even if there is a de-escalation in the trade war, which is our base case scenario, uncertainty remains extremely high, and activity will be penalized for a long time.
One direct and immediate consequence of Donald Trump's announcements on 2 April on tariffs, which are reciprocal and reduced in name only, was to accentuate the downside risks to the US economy and to seriously shake up the financial markets. According to our forecasts, the US economy will slow sharply but avoid recession, on the optimistic assumption of a de-escalation in the trade war and an easing of uncertainty.
Our nowcasts for Q1 show moderate growth in the euro zone (+0.2% q/q) and in France (+0.1% q/q). The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, on the other hand, suggests the risk of a significant slowdown in US growth in Q1. In other countries, our forecasts are for continued outperformance in Spain, rebounding growth in Italy and the UK, and moderate growth in Japan. In Germany, growth is likely to remain weak in Q1, with the upside risks associated with the next government taking office more likely to affect Q2. Chinese growth is exposed to downside risks.
Government bond yields in advanced economies are highly correlated, much more than the correlation of real GDP growth. Governments should be cognizant that a lack of fiscal discipline can create negative externalities, by pushing up bond yields abroad. Given the prospect of huge financing needs in the public and private sector, every issuer of debt should prepare for the possibility of structurally higher interest rates and stress test his balance sheet in order to test its resilience.
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