The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research
Countries will not be able to limit global warming to +1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, as was the ambition of the Paris Agreement ten years ago. However, it would be wrong to conclude that it was a failure. Paris was the catalyst in accelerating for the race to decarbonisation, not only in the European Union, but also in China, which is now on track to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the climate scepticism of its president, Donald Trump, the United States continues to green its electricity production. The scientific consensus is that we must now expand and intensify our efforts, which will come at a cost, but much lower than the cost of the status quo.
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Equity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.
The latest economic news.
This is my last contribution to Ecoweek before my retirement within a couple of weeks. Looking back at a career in banking and asset management that spans several decades, my main conclusion is that history repeats itself, at least to some degree. When I started in banking in 1987, a hotly debated topic was whether Wall Street had become massively overvalued and my first task was to focus on the sustainability of Belgian public debt. Ironically, today the valuation of Wall Street is again a topic of intense debate and many advanced economies struggle to stabilize their elevated public debt ratio. This reminds us that in the long run, budgetary discipline is of paramount importance. Otherwise, governments will have to confront increasingly difficult choices
The latest economic news
In the major advanced economies, public deficits remain high, particularly in the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Interest expenditures are expected to rise in countries where they are currently low – Germany, Japan and France – and stabilise at a high level in countries where they are currently higher – Spain and Italy – without, however, increasing. By 2030, according to our forecasts, the dynamics of the public debt-to-GDP ratio would reflect differences in public deficit scenarios.
Growth in emerging economies has remained solid since the beginning of the year, thanks in particular to buoyant exports and easing financial conditions. Up until the summer, the front-loading of purchases in anticipation of tariff increases in the United States stimulated trade. In addition, global trade flows have been reorganised. In 2026, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support growth, but will be more constrained. Monetary easing will be less pronounced than in 2025, if only because of the uneven pace of disinflation across countries. Fiscal policy will be constrained by the need to curb the growth of public debt ratios
Central Europe: resilience | Asia: Exports remain buoyant | North Africa/Middle East: Cautious optimism | Latin America: Little impact from the US tariff shock, but fragile public finances
Key indicators for major emerging countries and their public debt and vulnerability to external financial conditions.
In September, inflation rebounded slightly in the United States, the Eurozone and Japan, while remaining stable in the United Kingdom. In the United States, the inflationary impact of tariffs has so far been contained (see chart of the month). In the other countries, there are positive signs, as inflation expectations are stable at around 2% in the Eurozone, wage growth is moderating in the UK and producer prices are falling in Japan.
Anxious relief, such was the mood in Washington DC last week during the Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), from official and private sector participants alike. Relief that the global economy, and all its regional parts, are doing much better than expected in the Spring despite the US tariff shock. Anxiety that underneath the recent benign economy and markets, tectonic shifts are underway, still in their early stages and poorly understood.
