The latest economic indicators updated on January 30 2023 and the coming calendar
Outlook for GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
The latest economic indicators updated on January 23, 2023 and the coming calendar
The second half of 2022 was marked by a significant and generalised fall in global transportation costs, accompanied by a freeing up of supply chains. Global maritime freight fell back to levels almost five times lower than at the peak in autumn 2021. Only transportation costs for liquefied natural gas (LNG) increased significantly, due to Russian gas shortages, although prices have also fallen back since December.
Between 4 and 10 January, 3.4 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, representing a fall of -3% compared to the previous week. This is the third consecutive week of falling infections following seven weeks of almost continuous increases. The number of new cases continues to fall sharply in South America (-24%) and, to a lesser extent, in Europe (-12%).
The latest economic indicators updated on January 16, 2023 and the coming calendar
The global manufacturing PMI edged down in December on the back of a new, significant decline in the US and for the second month in a row an increase in the euro area where the improvement is broadbased.
The latest economic indicators updated on January 9 2023 and the coming calendar
From Adam Smith to the present day, nations' wealth has been built on fossil fuels. Coal, oil and gas have become a vital part of our lifestyles. In 2022, they still account for 83% of the world’s primary mix, that is to say what essentially feeds economic activity.
2022 was a year of profound transformation, of shifting geopolitical and economic paradigms. Looking ahead, 2023 should see a change of direction in key economic variables. Headline inflation should decline significantly, central bank rates should reach their cyclical peak and the US and the euro area should spend part of the year in recession. 2023 can be considered as a year of transition, paving the way for more disinflation, gradual rate cuts and a soft recovery in 2024.
The latest economic indicators updated on January 2 2023 and the coming calendar
From an economic perspective, 2022 will go down in history as the year in which elevated inflation made a surprising comeback forcing major central banks to start an aggressive tightening cycle. It is highly likely that in twelve months’ time we will look back at 2023 as a recession year, a year of disinflation, and a year in which official interest rates reached their terminal rate and stayed there. As usual, the list of ‘known unknowns’ is long. Energy prices might increase again after their recent decline, disinflation might be slower than expected, policy rates might peak at a higher level than currently priced by markets, and the recession might be deeper and longer than anticipated
The markets overview updated on the December 12, 2022: Money & bond markets, exchange rates, commodities, equity indices, performances, and much more.
An update of the GDP Growth and inflation data, interest and exchange rates
Companies in the United States and the euro area continue to struggle to fill vacancies. This will probably make them reluctant to lay off staff when economic conditions worsen, fearing that during the next upturn they would rapidly face new hiring difficulties. By limiting the increase in unemployment, such labour hoarding would be a source of resilience. However, this would be reflected in a decline in labour productivity, which would weigh on profits and could push companies to increase selling prices, thereby slowing the pace of disinflation.
The manufacturing PMI shows a contrasting picture in November, with another significant drop in the US and a rebound, from a low level, in the euro area. France, Germany, Greece, Italy and Spain recorded an improvement but the index declined in the Netherlands. Brazil saw an exceptional drop so next month’s data will be key to see whether this was a one-off. Also noteworthy is the drop in Vietnam from 50.6 to 47.4. New orders dropped again in the US although the index remains above that in the euro area, where it has rebounded. France, Germany and Italy benefited from a particularly strong increase, but the levels remain very low and well below the 50 mark. The situation worsened in Japan and Vietnam and even more so in Brazil. India saw an improvement from an already high level.
The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to increase across the world for the third consecutive week. 3.2 million new infections were recorded between 24 and 30 November, up 10% on the previous week. This rise was seen across all regions, with the exception of North America, where the number of cases fell by 12%.
Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope and methodology. Starting top left and continuing clockwise, US economic policy uncertainty based on media coverage has been on a rising trend over the past twelve months. This is related to the policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The latest observations however do not show a clear trend.
Disruption in global trade has continued to abate. Despite this, there could still be major trade friction this winter, in addition to the direct repercussions of the war in Ukraine. China is facing a record rise in Covid-19 infections, and its Zero-Covid policy has shut down several plants in Henan province, which is home to the production lines for major global technology groups.
Between 17 and 23 November, 2.9 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, an increase of 13% on the previous week. This is the second consecutive week with an increased number of infections. All the regions of the world are affected, with South America notable for a significant resurgence in cases.
After falling for a month, Covid-19 pandemic figures are again rising slightly in most regions of the world, but remain at a low level. The weekly proxy indicator for GDP is relatively stable or even on a slightly downward trend in the United States, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Japan.
The global manufacturing PMI was down again in October, with significant drops in the United States, the euro area, Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. China saw an improvement but the index stayed below 50. The steep downtrend of new orders continued in the euro area and its member countries, with the exception of France, where the decline in October was more limited after the big drop the previous month. Orders were also down strongly in the US -where the rebound in September clearly did not last- as well as in the UK. China recorded some improvement. India continues to benefit from strong order inflow.
