In March, economic conditions in the major OECD economies remained favourable. While in the US, the growth momentum is continuing, Europe is still benefitting from catch-up effects in the energy-intensive sectors (which had slowed down their production during the winter), and in transport equipment (which is benefitting from reduced supply difficulties). This has favoured employment, whose dynamism has improved (probably temporarily) in Europe compared to Q4 2022.
The decline in energy inflation has led to disinflation, which is relative, as core inflation has not declined to the same extent in either the US or Europe, while food inflation has reached new highs in Europe. As a result, the recovery in household confidence remains very moderate and is not yet reflected in the willingness to buy in many countries.
According to our forecasts, the outlook for growth in the first quarter of 2023 is fairly mixed: from the United Kingdom (where negative growth cannot yet be ruled out) to the United States and Japan (where growth should be clearly positive), via Germany (which should avoid recession) and the eurozone as a whole (which should experience moderate growth, as in France, Spain and Italy).
