In this issue, you will find William's De Vijlder's editorial, Tarik Rharrab's analysis of the latest PMI indices and the update of our “markets review” and “economic scenario” sections.
US growth has clearly moderated in the first half of the year and the latest data for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric (core personal consumption expenditures inflation) have been welcomed by the Fed and financial markets. The latter are now pricing in a high likelihood of a first rate cut in September. Faced with a still low but rising unemployment rate, the focus of the Federal Reserve is shifting. From exclusively looking at inflation, economic activity and employment also start to matter now, even more so considering the latest progress in terms of disinflation.
The second quarter of 2024 ended with a fall in the S&P Global PMI for global activity. The index stood at 52.9 (compared with 53.7 in May), ending seven months of consecutive increases. This decline was driven by both the manufacturing and services sectors, with the global PMI at 50.9 (compared with 51.0 in May) and 53.1 (compared with 54.0 in May) respectively. This fall in the index is not necessarily a sign of a slowdown in global activity, but forthcoming surveys will be all the more important to see whether this is a new trend or just a temporary disruption
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
