Consumption and purchasing power

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Charts of the Week

Germany vs. France: German consumers have confidence in the recovery; the French, not yet
15/03/2023 • By Stéphane Colliac

The European Commission survey of consumer confidence has found, over the past four months, a marked improvement amongst German consumers, driven by an upturn in their expectations for the general economic situation. Conversely, French consumer confidence remains depressed and is still not showing any sign of improvement. Assessments of the past situation are also diverging, with that in Germany also improving, albeit to a lesser extent.

Eco Week

Monetary policy’s long and variable lags: the case of the US
14/03/2023 • By William DE VIJLDER

The Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey sheds light on how changes in monetary policy influence banks’ credit standards and expected loan demand. Based on the historical relationships, the latest survey points towards a high likelihood of average negative growth of the volume of company and household investments over the next several quarters. Moreover, recent research shows that since 2009, the maximum impact of monetary policy on inflation may be reached more quickly [...]

Podcast - Macro Waves

The link between global growth and international trade
27/02/2023 • By Guillaume DERRIEN

In this new AudioBrief, Guillaume Derrien, economist within the OECD team, discusses the close relationship between global growth and the evolution of international trade.

Eco Week

Economic calendars of February 27 2023
27/02/2023 • By William DE VIJLDER

The latest economic indicators updated on February 20, 2023 and the coming calendar

Eco Pulse

Spain: Consumer support fading away
24/02/2023 • By Guillaume DERRIEN

The improved business climate points to a risk of an upwards revision in our current estimate of contraction in Spain’s GDP in Q1 2023. The composite PMI topped the 50-point threshold in January at 51.6, five months after slipping below this level. This rebound can be attributed to services (52.7), while further contraction was seen in manufacturing activity (48.4). While manufacturing production increased by 0.8% m/m in December and 2 [...]

Eco Brief

French growth in Q4: investment a driver, consumption a constraint

30/01/2023 • By Stéphane Colliac

GDP growth surprisingly increased in the 4th quarter, reaching +0.1% q/q (after +0.2% q/q in the 3rd quarter), compared with -0.2% based on our forecast. Corporate investment was one of the factors behind this relative resilience, with a further rise of 1.2% q/q (having already grown by 3.8% q/q in the 3rd quarter). Conversely, consumer spending was undoubtedly the weak link in demand, with a drop of 0.9% q/q.

Eco Week

Covid-19: a significant slowdown in the pandemic around the world
30/01/2023 • By Tarik Rharrab

The worldwide fall in Covid-19 cases has continued for the fifth consecutive week. 1.8 million new cases were reported between 20 and 26 January, down 27% from the previous week. The weekly GDP proxy indicator has recovered significantly in Germany, France, Belgium and Italy, while it remains relatively stable in Spain. In the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan, an increase over the latest data points can be noted

EcoTV Week

Wage-price loop in the Eurozone: Where do we stand?
19/01/2023 • By Hélène BAUDCHON

Where do we stand regarding the debate on the possible triggering of a wage-price loop in the Eurozone? About six months ago, when the debate first arose, there was some presumption but no tangible evidence that such a loop had been set off. Today, we have first signs that a wage-price loop is underway but in a somewhat normal way and with a limited risk of a problematic spiral.
Eco Week

Covid-19: the situation is still improving in most parts of the world
15/01/2023 • By Tarik Rharrab

Between 4 and 10 January, 3.4 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, representing a fall of -3% compared to the previous week. This is the third consecutive week of falling infections following seven weeks of almost continuous increases. The number of new cases continues to fall sharply in South America (-24%) and, to a lesser extent, in Europe (-12%).

Eco Week

Covid-19: ninth wave of the pandemic
18/12/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

3.9 million new cases were counted between 7 and 13 December, compared with approximately 3.6 million the previous week, representing an increase of 8.3%. This is the fifth consecutive week of rising infections, a development that is all the more noteworthy as all regions reported an increase in weekly cases, with the exception of Africa, which reported a fall of 17%.

Charts of the Week

Turkey: consumption on credit
08/12/2022 • By François FAURE

In Turkey, growth has held up well (+4% year-on-year in Q3 2022) despite the rise in inflation. Consumer spending was the main supporting element, with an increase of 18%. However, the acceleration in inflation (from 19% year-on-year in Q3 2021 to 74% in Q2 2022) led to a contraction in the wage bill in real terms up to Q2 2022, despite a strong recovery in employment. Since mid-2022, inflation has continued to accelerate (+84 [...]

Eco Week

New Covid-19 cases: the disease is still on the rise in Asia
05/12/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to increase across the world for the third consecutive week. 3.2 million new infections were recorded between 24 and 30 November, up 10% on the previous week. This rise was seen across all regions, with the exception of North America, where the number of cases fell by 12%.

Eco Week

Covid-19: The number of cases is rising again around the world
27/11/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

Between 17 and 23 November, 2.9 million new cases of Covid-19 were recorded worldwide, an increase of 13% on the previous week. This is the second consecutive week with an increased number of infections. All the regions of the world are affected, with South America notable for a significant resurgence in cases.

Eco Week

Covid-19: the weekly number of new cases falls below the one million mark in Europe
20/11/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

After falling for a month, Covid-19 pandemic figures are again rising slightly in most regions of the world, but remain at a low level. The weekly proxy indicator for GDP is relatively stable or even on a slightly downward trend in the United States, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium and Japan.

Eco Week

Covid-19: number of new weekly cases below 3 million
06/11/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The number of new Covid-19 cases continues to decline in most parts of the world. For the first time since 20 October 2021, the number of infections has fallen below 3 million per week (seven-day moving average). Thus, 2.45 million new cases were recorded between 27 October and 3 November 2022, a 15% drop compared to the previous week (Chart 1) [...]

Charts of the Week

China: consumer spending still depressed
25/10/2022 • By Christine PELTIER

Chinese economic activity recovered in Q3 2022 (+3.9% quarter-on-quarter and +3.9% year-on-year) following the contraction seen during the lockdown period in Q2 (-2.7% q/q and +0.4% y/y.). The recovery was mainly driven by the industrial sector and helped by the support measures taken by the authorities. In particular, higher public investment stimulated construction activity in infrastructure and tax incentives encouraged car sales [...]

Eco Week

Covid-19: resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic in parts of Europe
16/10/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The growth in the number of new Covid-19 cases continued for the fourth consecutive week in Europe. According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, European countries have recorded 59% (1.92 million out of a global total of 3.25 million) of new Covid-19 infections diagnosed in the last seven days (chart 1) [...]

Eco Week

Covid-19: Heading towards a wave of autumn infections in Europe
10/10/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The weekly number of new cases of Covid-19 in Europe has continued to increase, for the third consecutive week, with 1.7 million new infections between 29 September and 5 October, an increase of 17% compared to the previous week. The number of people frequenting shops and leisure facilities is very slightly above its pre-pandemic level in Belgium, while it has recently gone back to slightly below this level in Italy [...]

Eco Week

Covid-19: Numbers of new Covid-19 cases in Europe are picking up once again
25/09/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

3.4 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded worldwide from 14–21 September, a fall of 4% compared to the previous week. This is the smallest decrease since August last year. All regions of the world are affected with the notable exception of Europe, which recorded an increase for the first time since last July (an 18% rise). Of the 3.4 million new cases making up the worldwide total, 1.3 million were reported in Europe (38.2% of all cases).

Eco Week

COVID-19: the pandemic continues to slow down significantly across the world
18/09/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The downward trend in the number of new COVID-19 cases has continued worldwide for the seventh consecutive week. 3.6 million cases were reported between 6 and 12 September, down 16% from the previous week (Chart 1). Overall, the situation is continuing to improve noticeably in South America (-33%), North America (-20%) and Asia (-18%), but it has stabilised in Europe after falling for eight weeks. In Africa, the number of cases fell again (-12%) after rising slightly during the previous week [...]

Eco Week

Covid-19: new weekly cases fall below the symbolic 5 million threshold
11/09/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The downward trend in the number of new Covid-19 cases continues worldwide. For the first time since the end of June, the number of infections has fallen below the symbolic 5 million weekly mark (seven-day moving average). Thus, 4 million new cases were recorded between 1 and 7 September, a 15% drop compared to the previous week (Chart 1) [...]

Eco Week

The OECD weekly tracker of activity is still falling
28/08/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The global number of new Covid-19 cases has continued to decrease for the third consecutive week. 5.5 million new cases were recorded between 18 and 24 August, down 6% on the previous week. This drop was seen across all regions, with Africa down 21%, North and South America down 18%, Europe down 8% and Asia down 5% (chart 1) [...]

Eco Week

The OECD weekly tracker continues to show weakened activity in advanced economies
24/07/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

The world recorded 6.9 million new confirmed COVID-19 cases between 13 and 20 July, 9% more than in the previous week. This was a fifth consecutive week of rising case numbers. Asia saw the largest weekly growth. At the same time, footfall in shopping and leisure facilities in France, Belgium and Germany remains at its pre-COVID-19 level, while in Italy it is no longer very far off. However, footfall is still below the pre-pandemic level in the US, UK, Spain and Japan.

Eco Week

Covid-19: fourth consecutive week of rising infections

17/07/2022 • By Tarik Rharrab

Between 5 and 12 July, 6.2 million new cases of Covid-19 were reported around the world, a 15% increase compared with the previous week and the fourth consecutive week of rising infections. Case numbers rose in all regions. Europe saw the largest increase (figure 1): infections rose by 20% to 3 million, representing 48% of the global total.

Eco Perspectives

The shock to purchasing power is smoothed but not fully eliminated
29/06/2022 • By Stéphane Colliac

The French economy is stuck between three developments with different effects: an inflation shock that is denting consumer spending, a negative supply shock (supply constraints in industry) and the lifting of public health restrictions (benefiting growth as of the second quarter, having held it back in the first quarter). Government measures that have limited inflation were unable to prevent negative growth in the first quarter [...]