Twice a year, BNP Paribas Economic Research invites you to take stock of the global economic situation at a dedicated conference. For the December 2025 edition, the team has chosen to review the past year and present its outlook for 2026 with Jean Lemierre, Chairman of the Board of Directors of BNP Paribas.
A look back at the key developments of 2025, in particular the remarkable resilience shown by the global economy in the face of the US tariff shock, the reasons for this resilience, but also the areas of concern.
Notwithstanding the new US economic policy, which is highly interventionist in terms of trade policy and conflictual, with the longest shutdown in history, the watchword for 2025 was the resilience of growth performance. 2026 should start under the same auspices, with the Trump administration pursuing its agenda, the key elements of which are the renewal of the Fed governor and the risk of the Fed losing its independence. In Europe, the challenges are significant, with a substantial political agenda, including the implementation of Rearm EU, but not limited to that. In a still uncertain environment, we nevertheless believe that growth should return, despite an increasing competition from China
Will growth in emerging countries in 2026 be as resilient as in 2025? Continued monetary easing in the US and disinflation would suggest so. We must also reckon with the Chinese juggernaut, which could pose a threat through the aggressive redeployment of its exports or a boon as a trading and/or technology partner. In addition, financing conditions may not be as favourable as they have been in recent years. Finally, there will be a busy election schedule.
Fireside chat between Jean Lemierre (Chairman of the Board of Directors of BNP Paribas) & Isabelle Mateos y Lago (Group Chief Economist).
The latest economic news.
Equity indices, Currencies & commodities, and Bond markets.
The updated economic scenario and forecasts of the Economic research
This is my last contribution to Ecoweek before my retirement within a couple of weeks. Looking back at a career in banking and asset management that spans several decades, my main conclusion is that history repeats itself, at least to some degree. When I started in banking in 1987, a hotly debated topic was whether Wall Street had become massively overvalued and my first task was to focus on the sustainability of Belgian public debt. Ironically, today the valuation of Wall Street is again a topic of intense debate and many advanced economies struggle to stabilize their elevated public debt ratio. This reminds us that in the long run, budgetary discipline is of paramount importance. Otherwise, governments will have to confront increasingly difficult choices
The latest economic news
In the major advanced economies, public deficits remain high, particularly in the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Interest expenditures are expected to rise in countries where they are currently low – Germany, Japan and France – and stabilise at a high level in countries where they are currently higher – Spain and Italy – without, however, increasing. By 2030, according to our forecasts, the dynamics of the public debt-to-GDP ratio would reflect differences in public deficit scenarios.
Growth in emerging economies has remained solid since the beginning of the year, thanks in particular to buoyant exports and easing financial conditions. Up until the summer, the front-loading of purchases in anticipation of tariff increases in the United States stimulated trade. In addition, global trade flows have been reorganised. In 2026, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support growth, but will be more constrained. Monetary easing will be less pronounced than in 2025, if only because of the uneven pace of disinflation across countries. Fiscal policy will be constrained by the need to curb the growth of public debt ratios
Central Europe: resilience | Asia: Exports remain buoyant | North Africa/Middle East: Cautious optimism | Latin America: Little impact from the US tariff shock, but fragile public finances
Key indicators for major emerging countries and their public debt and vulnerability to external financial conditions.
Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade?
In September, inflation rebounded slightly in the United States, the Eurozone and Japan, while remaining stable in the United Kingdom. In the United States, the inflationary impact of tariffs has so far been contained (see chart of the month). In the other countries, there are positive signs, as inflation expectations are stable at around 2% in the Eurozone, wage growth is moderating in the UK and producer prices are falling in Japan.
