Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope and methodology. Based on the latest readings, the ongoing divergence reflects the role of supply bottlenecks that confront companies with uncertainty in terms of delivery time, future production and the possibility to fill vacancies. Starting top left and continuing clockwise, economic policy uncertainty based on media coverage continues its decline. It is now back at a level last seen in 2018.
Although tensions in world trade remain fierce, there were some signs of easing in October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which reflects the cost of maritime transport for dry bulk goods, declined by around 30% after peaking in the first week of October. Nonetheless, the rise in costs since the start of the year remains impressive, nearly a tripling. Looking more closely at October’s figures, we can see that the decline in the BDI was limited solely to very high tonnage container ships, while freight prices continued to rise for smaller vessels.
More than 2.85 million new Covid-19 cases were reported worldwide between 14 and 20 October, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week. This has been the smallest decline since August. All regions contributed to this drop with the notable exception of Europe, which reported an increase for the fourth consecutive week of 14.7% (chart 1). Of the 2.85 million new cases worldwide, 1.16 million were reported in Europe (41% of the total). The number of new cases was highest in the UK (295,643), Russia (211,841), Ukraine (102,564), Romania (100,733) and Germany (68,259). Vaccination campaigns continue to progress around the globe (chart 2), although the pace has slowed recently. Retail and recreation footfall barely exceeds pre-pandemic levels in Belgium and Germany
Although the significant increase in inflation in most advanced economies is expected to be transitory, it is necessary to focus on the potential consequences of inflation staying temporarily high for longer. Companies that hitherto have been reluctant to raise prices might do so after all, higher inflation could weigh on spending but also cause wage demands to grow, inflation expectations could drift higher, the market sensitivity to growth and inflation surprises would increase and there could be fears about a change in the reaction function of the central bank. In the coming months, investors and central banks will scrutinise data in parallel, but the former will react more quickly should inflation stay high.
The number of new Covid-19 cases around the world dropped below the symbolic level of 3 million in the week of 7 to 13 October, representing a 7% fall on the previous week. This fall was shared across all regions other than Europe, where case numbers climbed for the third week in a row. This increase has mainly been focused on Eastern Europe, the UK and, more recently, Germany. Meanwhile vaccination campaigns have continued to gain ground.
Successful market timing between equities and cash requires high skill levels. Very low official interest rates, through their impact on market rates, create a disincentive for doing market timing because they increase the break-even skill level. The same applies for quantitative easing. These considerations are important from a financial stability perspective. Growing investor reluctance to do market timing will probably lead to a decline in equity market volatility and an increase in equity valuations. The former provides a false sense of safety whereas the latter increases the sensitivity to negative news and hence increases the riskiness.
The world composite PMI hardly changed in September, despite a rather significant decline in the Eurozone, driven by Germany, Italy and Spain ; Japan and Russia edged higher. The world manufacturing PMI was unchanged in September. Supply chain disruptions and supply bottlenecks continue to weigh on activity levels.
The number of daily new Covid-19 cases reported worldwide continues to decline. Meanwhile, there has been a recent drop in visits to retail and recreation facilities in France, Italy, Belgium, Japan and the UK, but continued increases in Germany, Spain and the USA. It is worth noting that in Belgium such visits are still at their pre-pandemic levels, despite recent falls.
Recent data show business and consumer sentiment has peaked and real GDP growth is expected to slow down whilst remaining well above potential. A key factor in this respect is the self-reinforcing interaction between spending, company profits and employment, against a background of easy monetary and financial conditions. In using the popular metaphor, until recently, the economic sky looked quite blue but clouds have been gathering. The message of central banks should become a bit more hawkish, in the US, political disagreement influences the economic agenda of the Biden administration and China is going through a major adjustment phase
When the pick-up in inflation during a growth upswing is driven by the demand side, inflation is considered to be good. However, inflation can also be bad. In that case, higher prices do not follow from e.g. higher wages due to a tight labour market. Bad inflation rather reflects supply-side shocks. This is, to some degree, the situation that is unfolding in the Eurozone and other economies due to the recent huge increase of oil and gas prices. Bad inflation weighs on households’ real disposable income and hence spending. The impact is expected to be larger for households at the lower end of the income distribution, considering that a bigger portion of their expenditures goes to fuel and in particular heating, and that they also have a lower savings rate.
The Covid-19 pandemic continued to ease for the fifth consecutive week, with new cases down by 10.3% between 23 and 29 September, relative to the previous week (chart 1). This represents the biggest fall in case numbers since the end of August 2021. As far as visits to retail and recreation facilities are concerned, we have recently seen weaker numbers in some euro area countries.
Monetary desynchronisation between the US and the Eurozone seems unavoidable due to a very different performance in terms of inflation. Whether this will complicate the ECB’s task of reaching its inflation target depends, in the short run, on the impact on financial conditions in the euro area. This influence will probably be small. In the medium run, when the US tightening cycle is well underway, US domestic demand growth will be slowing down, which will weigh on imports and hence Eurozone exports to the US. This would complicate matters for the ECB if by then, inflation has not yet reached its target.
Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope or methodology. Based on the latest readings, some divergence is developing. This probably reflects the role of supply disruption that is causing bottlenecks and, in certain countries, the rapid spreading of the Delta variant.
Most indicators confirm that world demand for industrial goods is still going strong, suggesting an accentuation or at least the continuation of the supply-chain problems currently facing many companies. Production pressures are compounded by transport pressures, which were showing no signs of easing in early fall.
The global Covid-19 pandemic continued to ease for the fourth consecutive week, with new cases down by 6% between 16 and 22 September, relative to the previous week. This downward trend was observed in all regions. Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns have continued to gain ground.
The number of deaths also declined for the third consecutive week, down 3% compared to the previous week. In terms of retail and leisure activity, footfall has returned to pre-pandemic levels in Germany, Belgium, France and Italy, while it is still below pre-Covid levels in Spain, the United States, Japan and the UK.
Global Covid-19 case numbers have started to decline again after a rising trend lasting nearly two months. Some 4.2 million new cases were recorded between 2 and 8 September, a reduction of 6.3% on the previous week. This development was shared between all regions: Africa -25%; South America -16.2%; Asia -7.8%; Europe -2.3%; and North America -2.3%. The total number of deaths also fell over the same period. Meanwhile vaccination campaigns continue to gain ground, with 5.6 billion vaccine doses given by 8 September.
In the early phase of QE, financial markets perceive central bank forward guidance on asset purchases and on policy rates to be closely linked. This generates a mutual reinforcement of both instruments. At a later stage, there may be mounting concern that the signalling works in the other direction as well. Scaling back asset purchases could be interpreted as a signal that a rate hike will follow soon once the net purchases have ended. In the US, Jerome Powell has been very clear that tapering would not signal a change in the outlook for the federal funds rate. In the Eurozone, both types of guidance are explicitly linked. This may complicate the scaling back of asset purchases in view of the impact on rate expectations
The global manufacturing PMI has eased further in August and is now about two points below the peak reached in June. The levels remain very high in the developed economies but the latest country dynamics show considerable divergence with the index moving higher in Canada, Greece, Hong Kong and Indonesia. It jumped in South-Africa after a plunge in July. In most countries, the PMI is stabilising of trending lower, like is the case in the US and the Eurozone. In China, it has moved below 50. Vietnam saw another big drop.
After rising for almost two months, Covid-19 infections are stabilising globally but remain high. In the week of 25-31 August, 4.6 million new cases were reported (chart 1), similar to the previous week’s figure. However, the trend varies between the world’s regions, with cases rising in North America (+4.6%) and falling in South America (-15.2%) and in Africa (-6.4%), while the situation is stabilising in Europe (due to declines in France and Spain – see chart 4) and in Asia. The vaccine rollout is continuing to accelerate around the world. According to Johns Hopkins University, more than 5.4 billion vaccine doses have been given worldwide (chart 2).
Judging by recent survey data, it seems many advanced economies are hitting against their speed limit in terms of economic growth. This has several consequences. It creates upside risks to inflation, something which is acknowledged by the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Labour shortages can cause faster wage growth but they should also underpin consumer confidence and spending. Supply bottlenecks should boost company investments. However, when growth is at the speed limit, future economic volatility may increase. Finally, it also creates an analytical challenge in understanding whether softer business surveys are demand or supply driven.
According to the latest figures published by Johns Hopkins University, 4.6 million new Covid-19 cases were recorded worldwide between 19 and 25 August, up 1.2% on the previous week. Cases increased in both North America (10.8%) and Europe (3.5%). Conversely, decreases were logged in South America (7.7%), Asia (4.0%) and Africa (1.9%) over the same period (chart 1). In addition, vaccination drives have continued to make progress around the world, especially in the European Union where the pace of vaccination remains very high (chart 2).
Our different uncertainty gauges are complementary, in terms of scope or methodology, yet, based on the latest readings, all but one show an ongoing decline in uncertainty. It reflects the combination of the vaccination campaigns, the lifting of restrictions and good economic data.
Although the momentum remains strong, world trade volumes could begin to taper off this summer, judging by the results of recent opinion surveys. The global PMI index declined 2 points to 56.6 in June, pulled down by the drop in the manufacturing “new export orders” component.
The Covid-19 crisis has deeply affected our economies. Although the rebound observed in recent months seems to have been confirmed, uncertainty persists over their capacity to fully recover. This article will look at how the G7 economies reacted during post-recession phases in the past, in terms of GDP, private consumption and investment. How quickly did GDP in these economies catch up with pre-crisis levels and trends? What were the most dynamic components of aggregated demand during recovery phases? Given the specific characteristics of the Covid-19 crisis, can it really be compared with previous shocks? These are some of the questions that we will discuss in this article while highlighting current sector disparities.
